East Coast Bias

Does East Coast Bias exist in college football? People who live on the West Coast scream about it where people in the East laugh it off. Now, I grew up in California and currently reside in NYC so you know what I think. The reason I ask is that after the Heisman Trophy was awarded this weekend, you could start to hear rumblings about the East Coast Bias rearing its ugly head. I am not here to argue who about the result (that will be tomorrow's post), I just wanted to throw out an actual quote from an unnamed Florida Heisman voter, who voted 1. Ingram 2. Tebow 3. McCoy:

“The reason that I voted for Ingram, Tebow and McCoy was because I saw them play the most. I never saw Gerhart play an entire game (we work all day Saturday and Saturday night) and only saw a few minutes of Suh’s game against Texas. I refused to vote for somebody based on highlights."

Ladies and gentleman, I couldn't have defined it any better if I tried. That is exactly what people on the West Coast have been crying about for decades. How can you be a Heisman Trophy voter if you don't watch as much college football as possible? Of course this isn't new news as all we have to do is remember back to last year when actual Harris Poll voters said they hadn't seen undefeated Utah play. Nice to see the East Coast Bias is alive and kicking.

My Heisman Trophy Ballot

"The Heisman Memorial Trophy annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity."

That is taken directly from the Heisman Trust Mission Statement. The question is, "Who was the most outstanding college football player in 2009?" I will disagree with a lot people here, but no where in the statement does it say "Who is the best player on the best team". Unfortunately over the last decade the voting has been slanted towards players who are on the best teams. This award is an individual award, not a team award. This line of thinking is what leaves us with such past greats like Jason White, Eric Crouch, Gino Torreta and Chris Weinke winning the award. I want names like Bo Jackson, Barry Sanders, Herschel Walker, etc. Guys who when we look back at the award in 10 years are thought of as all-time greats. That is what the award is supposed to symbolize. So without further ado, here is my top 3.

1. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford
1,736 rushing yards, 26 rushing tds, 144.7 ypg
Game Totals: 121, 82, 113, 200, 134, 96, 123, 125, 223, 178, 136, 205
Gerhart led the nation in rushing yards, rushing tds, and was 2nd in yards per game. He finished with 10 of his 12 games over 100 yards, including his last 6 over 120 yards. That is called consistency. He saved his best for his biggest games (223 yards vs Oregon, 178 vs USC, and 205 vs Notre Dame). He did all this while taking 21 units at one of the finest academic institutions in the country. He also led Stanford to a second-place finish in the PAC-10 their first Bowl Game since 2001. That my friends is excellence.

2. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
82 tackles, 23 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, 10 pass breakups, 1 int
Those statistics are almost unheard of for a defensive tackle. There-in lies the problem. He was a monster all season but some people will have a hard time voting for a defensive player to win the Heisman. The statements says "most outstanding player" and doesn't make the distinction between offense and defense. In my opinion, it is just being lazy that voters ignore defensive players because the stats aren't as obvious. Anyone who has watched Suh this year, knows he was outstanding. He is also in line to be the top draft pick in next year's NFL Draft.

3. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
1,542 rushing yards, 15 rushing's tds, 118.6 ypg
Game Totals: 150, 56, 91, 50, 140, 172, 246, 99, 144, 149, 102, 30, 113
Ingram did have 113 yards to beat Florida in the SEC Championship Game, but the previous week he had only 30 vs arch rival Auburn. He finished with 8 of his 13 games over 100 yards. While Ingram had a great year, are we even sure he is the best player on his own team? The Crimson Tide had 3 other first team All-Americans. Imagine what Gerhart's statistics would look like if he had that kind of help. Ingram also would have by far the worst ypg than any of the previous 10 RBs to win the Heisman Trophy. In fact, he would have finish with the lowest rushing yardage and rushing td totals of any of the previous winners at his position despite playing in 2 more games. That doesn't sound like a Heisman season to me.

I left Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow out of my top 3 and here is why. McCoy threw 8 tds and 8 int in games versus teams that finished .500 or better. Simply put, he didn't play well against good competition. Also, anyone who knows my family history (Hatfield) knows I can't vote for a McCoy. Tebow threw 8 tds and 5 ints in his 9 SEC games. That just isn't going to get it done at the QB position. Just the fact that he made it to NY for the ceremony boggles my mind.

BCS = Blatant Corrupt System

First off, my computer rankings agree with Alabama vs Texas in the National Championship Game. I have very little argument against this game. My problem is with the Fiesta Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl should be ashamed of itself and I have to believe they were pressured by higher ups into matching up TCU vs Boise State. This game serves no purpose. The whole intrigue of a Non-AQ team playing in the BCS is to see how they would match up against the elite from the automatic qualify conferences. How great was it last year when Utah throttled Alabama or when Boise State shocked the world versus Oklahoma? Sadly, we won't be able to see if undefeated Boise State or TCU could keep the trend up. I guess the BCS decided it needed to protect the interests of the six BCS conferences as either of these teams would have given Cincinnati, Iowa, Georgia Tech, or Florida a run for their money. What the BCS did was basically invite the red-headed step children to the party and force them to sit at the kiddie table. This is an absolute joke in my mind.

My main issue stems from the Fiesta Bowl. I won't believe that they thought TCU was the best option to "anchor" their bowl game. The whole month leading up to yesterday we heard that they wanted a Big Ten school. That makes perfect sense because those teams are in cold-weather city and have huge alumni bases. The goal of these bowls is to make money. Iowa offered the Fiesta Bowl much more in this capacity than either TCU or Boise State. TCU is in Dallas and is a quick flight to Phoenix. Iowa is going to be freezing in January and people would be lining up to spend an entire week in the sun. Iowa has a much larger alumni base than TCU. Iowa was the team that should have been chosen using the criteria that the bowls have used the since the BCS started. In my opinion, the BCS stepped in and told the Fiesta Bowl (or paid-off) to select TCU. It was already a given that Boise State was going to be the last team standing and thus be Fiesta Bowl bound. The corruption has to stop and I can't wait until it does. Bring on a playoff!

The Heisman Trophy should go to....

The Heisman is supposed to go to the Most Outstanding Player in College Football, not the best player on the best team. The Top 3 candidates (at least what the media is reporting) are Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, and Toby Gerhart. I personally wouldn't have Tebow in my Top 5 but that is another story. If I was given a vote, I would give the Heisman Trophy to Toby Gerhart. Sure Stanford has 4 losses, but that isn't Gerhart's fault. Blame his defense which is currently ranked #65 in the country. By the way Florida is #1 and Texas #9 for those scoring at home.

Argument for Gerhart:
1. Gerhart has finished strong. In his last four games, three of which came against teams currently ranked in the AP Top 20, Gerhart rushed for 742 yards (185.5 YPG) and 12 TDs.
2. Gerhart was at his best when he played the best. In four games against teams currently ranked, Gerhart rushed for 158.3 YPG and 12 TDs (against unranked teams, Gerhart ran for 137.9 YPG).
3. Gerhart didn’t pad his stats against bad teams. Against Washington State and San Jose State (two of the five worst rush defenses in the country), Gerhart gained “only” 121 and 113 yards – figures which represent two of his four lowest rushing totals this season.

Argument against Tebow:
1. Tebow has finished strong in his last five games but, none of those five opponents are ranked. The stretch consisted of Georgia (10th in SEC in scoring defense), Vanderbilt (2-10, winless in SEC), South Carolina, FIU (119th in nation in total defense) and Florida State (108th in nation in total defense).
2. Florida has also faced only one ranked opponent this year (No. 15 LSU). Tebow was 11-16 for 134 yards with a TD and Int, though that was his first game following a concussion suffered at Kentucky.
3. Tim Tebow’s last two games accounted for two of his three highest offensive outputs of the season (311 vs FSU, 317 vs FIU). As mentioned above, those teams are in the bottom 13 nationally in total defense.

Argument against McCoy:
1. McCoy also has finished strong but in his last four games, Texas faced zero ranked teams -- two teams that went 1-7 in the Big 12 (Baylor and Kansas) along with Texas A&M and UCF (which are 111th and 112th nationally in pass defense).
2. Texas has faced only one team currently ranked this season (No. 22 Oklahoma State). McCoy threw for 171 yards on 16-of-21 passing and a TD in a game which the Texas defense/special teams accounted for two TDs.
3. 19 of Colt McCoy’s 27 TD passes and four of his five best passing games have come against teams which currently do not have a winning record. Against opponents with winning records, he's thrown for eight TDs and five Ints.

So there you have it. Gerhart has been the better player against better competition. Being on an undefeated team helps McCoy and Tebow, but that is more of a team accomplishment (think Jason White over Larry Fitzgerald in 2003 was a mistake?) and not what the Heisman is supposed to be about. Do the right thing and restore order to the way the process is supposed to work. Vote for Gerhart!

It's championship week and the last shot to pick some winners prior to the bowl season. Point differentials can say a lot about a team's performance. While they can be run up a tad versus weaker opponents, they tend to regress to the mean this late in the season. Looking at some lines this week, I can see where some PD's (I only use Division I scores) might not match what the lines say.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-1)
PD - Cin +16.1, Pitt +12.4. Cincinnati's 28-21 win last year over Pitt snapped a three game losing streak in the series for the Bearcats. The Bearcats have played well on the road and the chance to go 12-0 will keep them focused. Pick: Cincinnati (+1)

Arizona at USC (-7.5)
PD - USC +7.2, AZ +5.7. Arizona seems to match up very well versus USC. I may be simplifying this too much, but USC the last 2 years have beaten Arizona by 7 points. USC is worse this year than the last 2 years. Arizona is better this year than the last 2 years. Statistically Arizona has the better offense and better defense (by yardage). USC is hard to beat in the Coliseum and Arizona isn't a particularly good road team. I think USC wins, but it wont be by 8 points. Pick: AZ +7.5

Houston vs East Carolina (+1)
PD - Hou +14.1, ECU +5.7. Houston beat ECU last year 41-24. This game seems to pit strength vs weakness. Houston should be able to pass at will against ECU. ECU should be able to run at will against Houston. Houston's QB is better than ECU's RB so I will take the Cougars. Pick: Houston -1

Season: 19-20

The Holmes Computer Rankings

No upsets on the field last week, but Florida has finally passed TCU for the #2 spot in the rankings. With TCU done playing, they can't pass Florida, but should Alabama win, they may sneak into the #2 spot in the final rankings. Also, nice to see four PAC-10 teams in the Top 25.

1. Texas - 59.131
2. Florida - 56.956
3. TCU - 56.775
4. Alabama - 54.929
5. Boise State - 53.994
6. Oregon - 49.661
7. Ohio State - 49.021
8. Cincinnati - 47.933
9. BYU - 46.560
10. Virginia Tech - 46.463
11. Penn State - 44.958
12. Georgia Tech - 44.870
13. Houston - 44.798
14. Nebraska - 44.184
15. Iowa - 43.264
16. Utah - 43.143
17. LSU - 42.989
18. USC - 42.353
19. Miami - 42.205
20. Oregon State - 40.903
21. Central Michigan - 40.355
22. Stanford - 40.185
23. Oklahoma - 40.046
24. Pittsburgh - 40.017
25. Oklahoma St. - 39.793

These rankings should also show the MWC conference should get an automatic bid. They have 3 of the top 16 teams and are just as good as the ACC or Big East. The money grubbing power conferences should step aside and let them play with the big boys every year.

College Football Picks - Week 13

Finally, I am back to .500 and I can't wait for bowl season. This is an interesting week in the SEC where some road favorites look to hold on. Let's see who I like.

Ole Miss at Mississippi State (+7)
Last year Ole Miss beat MSU 45-0. MSU is being out gained and outscored on the season. Ole Miss is coming off a big win vs LSU and should be able to carry over the momentum into the Egg Bowl. Look for Ole Miss to exploit MSU's weak pass defense (7.9 YPA) on their way to a route. Pick: Ole Miss -7

Tennessee at Kentucky (+3)
Tennessee has beaten Kentucky the last 4 years. Tennessee hasn't won a road game this year which scares me, but they have the better players and coach. Monte Kiffin will have a few tricks up his sleeve that will confuse Kentucky's backup QB. Expect the Vols to pound the ball on the ground to exploit the Wildcats poor run defense (4.6 ypc). Pick: Tennessee -3

Alabama at Auburn (+10)
Alabama beat Auburn 36-0 last year. While Auburn's offense has been better this year, their defense has gotten worse. Auburn is giving up 177 ypg and 4.5 ypc which spells trouble when Mark Ingram and the Crimson Tide come to town. Alabama will make Auburn one-dimensional on offense and cruise to victory. Pick: Alabama -10

Season: 18-18

Alabama and Florida

Florida, Alabama, and Texas all control their own destiny on their way to the BCS Championship Game. Florida and Alabama cruised to victories this past weekend vs Florida International (ranked 99/120 in my computer system) and 1AA Chattanooga. This should be unacceptable. I wish the voters would have grown a pair and done something about the SEC playing creampuffs in November. The voters SHOULD have voted Texas number 1 this week to send a message that we will not stand for this. It wouldn't matter in the long run anyways, as an undefeated SEC champion would still finish in the Top 2. This would have been an act to show that in the future we expect teams to play competitive games in November and at least keep the facade of "every game counts" alive.

The Holmes Computer Rankings

This past weekend of college football brought us some exciting match ups like Florida vs Florida International and Alabama vs Chattanooga. It is a disgrace that elite powers are playing such inferior competition in November. You know what makes me smile....my computer agrees with me. Florida and Alabama fall out of the Top 2 spots. Lets see what my computer thinks.

1. Texas - 56.187
2. TCU - 53.182
3. Florida - 52.943
4. Alabama - 52.833
5. Boise State - 50.629
6. Ohio State - 48.511
7. Oregon - 48.282
8. Georgia Tech - 45.020
9. Cincinnati - 44.652
10. Penn State - 44.409
11. BYU - 43.283
12. Iowa - 42.743
13. Utah - 41.699
14. Virginia Tech - 41.430
15. Pittsburgh - 40.847
16. Nebraska - 40.435
17. Oklahoma St. - 39.782
18. Nevada - 39.451
19. Oregon State - 39.401
20. LSU - 39.321
21. USC - 39.224
22. Houston - 38.962
23. Wisconsin - 37.966
24. Stanford - 37.834
25. Clemson - 37.799

It's important to keep in mind that my system is an aggregate of points so now that the Big Ten is basically done with their season, those teams will slowly drop into place over the next two weeks. The SEC winner will still finish ahead of TCU if they are undefeated most likely. Also, the Mountain West Conference is cleaning up with 3 of the top 13 teams. I guess it may be time to re-visit their automatic bid application.

College Football Picks - Week 12

It feels so good when what you expect to happen actually does. A 3-0 week can do wonders on a psyche. The main lesson last week was, in order to beat Vegas you have to think like Vegas. Don't let them trick you into a line that seems to good to be true. With that in mind we look to get into the black this week.

Rutgers at Syracuse (+8)
Rutgers is coming off 31-0 thrashing of South Florida. Syracuse is 0-5 in the Big East and has only stayed within 8 points of a dreadful Louisville team. Rutgers has won the last 4 meetings in this series by scores of 18, 24, 31 and 22. While the Rutgers pass defense isn't great, the turnover margins (Rutgers +12, Syracuse -9) should allow Rutgers to pull away. Pick: Rutgers -8

Stanford at CAL (O/U 63.5)
This total seems a little high and is no doubt influenced by the Stanford totals (93 and 76) the last 2 weeks. The Under in PAC-10 play is 2-5 for CAL and 3-4 for Stanford. The last 4 meetings between these two teams has produced totals of 53, 33, 43, and 30. Throw in the fact that both teams love to run the football (they average 78 rushing attempts per game combined) and the clock becomes our friend. Pick: Under 63.5

Oklahoma at Texas Tech (O/U 53)
This line reflects that the books are getting killed by the "Under" when the Sooners play. Last week was the first week all season the "Over" cashed in for Oklahoma. The last 3 totals in games between these two teams have been 86, 61, and 58. Both teams love to throw the ball and that leads to more possessions and more points. I think the fact that this game is in Lubbock helps push the line up. Pick: Over 53

Season: 16-17

LSU vs Oregon

The BCS standings reveal all that is wrong with College Football. Most people look to see who the Top 2 teams are but you can get a better idea of how teams can get to the top by looking deeper into standings. A perfect example of what I am talking about is LSU being ranked ahead of Oregon. I personally (and my computer system agrees) think that Oregon's body of work is much better than LSU's. The Harris Poll, Coach's Poll, and the BCS disagree. Time for a tale of the tape.

LSU
Record: 8-2 overall, 4-2 SEC
Ranks: 8 BCS, 10 Harris, 10 Coaches
Oregon
Record: 8-2 overall, 6-1 PAC-10
Ranks: 11 BCS, 11 Harris, 11 Coaches

Just looking at these numbers and it doesn't seem to be much of a travesty that LSU is ranked higher. Lets dig a little deeper.

Losses
LSU: #1 Florida (13-3), at #2 Alabama (24-15)
Oregon: at #6 Boise State (19-8), at #17 Stanford (51-42)
Advantage: LSU even with a home loss
This has to be the only argument someone can make to have LSU higher, but it is a weak argument as I will show.

Wins vs Teams with Winning Records
LSU: at Georgia (6-4), Auburn (7-4)
Oregon: #21 Utah (8-2), #18 USC (7-3), #25 CAL (7-3)
Advantage: Oregon
LSU hasn't beaten a team that is currently ranked in the Top 25 of the BCS, Harris, or Coaches Poll while Oregon has beaten 3.

Common Opponent - Washington (both teams played in Seattle)
LSU 31-23 win, Oregon 43-19
Advantage: Oregon

Opponents Records
LSU: 53-49 overall, 45-49 vs DI
Oregon: 56-45 overall, 53-45 vs DI
Advantage: Oregon
The 8 teams that LSU have beaten have a combined record of 33-49, 26-49 vs DI while the 8 teams that Oregon have beaten are of 39-42, 37-42 vs DI.

Point Differential
LSU: 25.0 ppg, 13.7 ppg allowed (+11.3)
Oregon: 37.1 ppg, 20.9 allowed (+16.2)
Advantage: Oregon

Yardage Differential
LSU: 314.7 ypg, 313.7 ypg allowed (+1)
Oregon: 414.6 ypg, 310.1 ypg allowed (+104.5)
Advantage: Oregon
Am I really susposed to believe that LSU is the 8th best team in the country when they outgain their opponents by 1 yard a game. Really?

The numbers never lie as Oregon cruises to a 5-1 victory. Clearly, Oregon has done more on the field this year than LSU. The Ducks have played the tougher schedule, beaten more quality opponents, and have a much greater point and yardage differentials. So what is the conclusion to draw here on the way the BCS works. The only conclusion to make is that College Football is about who you lose to rather than who you beat. It's not like Oregon has lost to chumps either. It is a shame that the voters and computers reward teams for playing weaker competition. I can only dream of the day when a playoff system will make all of this moot.

The Holmes Computer Rankings

The top teams are still undefeated, but my data doesn't agree with the real BCS. My computers continue to think that Florida isn't one of the top 3 teams in the country. Florida has only beaten 1 ranked team all year and is struggling to separate from mid-level SEC teams. Meanwhile, TCU continues to clobber the opposition. I know the MWC isn't the SEC, but they both leagues have 3 ranked teams and TCU has beaten 3 ranked teams that are currently ranked (Clemson, Utah, and BYU). Lets see how the Top 25 stacks up...

1. Texas - 51.521
2. Alabama - 51.260
3. TCU - 49.316
4. Florida - 48.564
5. Boise State - 46.800
6. Ohio State - 44.918
7. Oregon - 44.192
8. Georgia Tech - 43.579
9. Cincinnati - 43.234
10. LSU - 39.907
11. Pittsburgh - 39.457
12. Iowa - 39.213
13. BYU - 38.770
14. Penn State - 38.379
15. Wisconsin - 37.742
16. USC - 37.635
17. Stanford - 37.467
18. Utah - 37.186
19. Nebraska - 36.908
20. Virginia Tech - 36.842
21. Oklahoma - 36.516
22. Oklahoma St. - 35.152
23. Oregon State - 34.849
24. Clemson - 34.442
25. Nevada - 33.919

559, 345, 313, 484, 312, 517, and 461. What are the significance of those numbers? Those are Nevada's rushing totals during their current 7 game win streak. Boise State better watch out for the Wolfpack as The Holmes Computer Rankings slips them in at #25.

College Football Picks - Week 11

It has been a rough year so far, but it could turn around at any point. I have to start thinking like Vegas in order to beat Vegas. If a line seems too low, then I have to wonder why. With that in mind, lets look to make some picks.

Stanford at USC (-10.5)
USC has won 47 of their last 48 home games so coming home will be nice but the lone loss was against Stanford in 2007. Stanford is hitting on all cylinders right now offensively averaging 210 yards rushing and 234 yards passing per game. The USC defense has given up an average of 30 points and 451 yards over the last 4 games. Factor in that USC could be without WR Damian Williams and TE Anthony McCoy and this has close game written all over it. Pick: Stanford +10.5

Alabama at Mississippi State (+12)
Mississippi State has started to play better football year, but they dont have enough offense to compete with Alabama. The Bulldogs hung in with Florida, but it took 2 defensive tds to stay within 10 points. That isn't likely to happen again. The Bulldogs defense isnt good enough to stop the Crimson Tide running attack. This game won't even be close. Pick: Alabama -12

Indiana at Penn State (-26)
Penn State is 1-3 ATS in home games coming off a loss to Ohio State. Indiana has played much better than their 4-6 record. They stayed within 26 points in their losses to Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The Hoosiers have covered the last 2 meetings vs Penn State and are 6-3 ATS this year. Pick: Indiana +26

Season: 13-17

NL Gold Glove Winners

Just like in the AL, the voters have no idea what a Gold Glove is about in the NL. Once again I will use UZR (ultimate zone rating) to find out which players that won actually deserved the award and who got robbed. Lets look at the winners and who should have won (bolded players are the correct decisions).

P - Adam Wainwright
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Adrian Gonzalez (3.8)
2B - Orlando Hudson (-3.3). Robbed: Chase Utley (10.8)
SS - Jimmy Rollins (2.7). Robbed: Rafael Furcal (8.0)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman (18.1)
OF - Shane Victorino (-4.1). Robbed: Nyjer Morgan (27.8)
OF - Matt Kemp (2.6). Robbed: Randy Winn (16.5)
OF - Michael Bourn (8.6). Robbed: Mike Cameron (10.0)

I have to give the voters some credit as there are some first time winners. It seems like the voters get too enamored with errors totals and are lazy. A player can't make an error if he doesn't get to a ball. Its a shame to see that Nyjer Morgan, the best defensive player in the NL this year, didn't win a Gold Glove. Hopefully, as the years go by and voters get more acclimated to defensive stats other than errors, the rightful winners will be chosen.

AL Gold Glove Winners

Another year of Gold Glove winners, another year of stupid decisions. I never understood the phenomenon of giving a Gold Glove award to a guy known for hitting. A Gold Glove is supposed to go to the best defensive player at his position in each league. There are players in the league specifically because of their defensive value but they are never rewarded. Now that we have stats that tell us more about defensive that errors, we can see if each winner was the person who actually deserved the award. I will use UZR (ultimate zone rating) which is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined (a score of 0.0 is MLB average). Lets look at the winners and who should have won (bolded players are the correct decisions).

P - Mark Buerhle
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Mark Teixeira (-3.7). Robbed: Kendry Morales (4.9)
2B - Placido Polanco (11.4)
SS - Derek Jeter (6.6). Robbed: Elvis Andrus (10.7)
3B - Evan Longoria (18.5)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (10.5). Robbed: Franklin Gutierrez (29.1)
OF - Torii Hunter (-1.4). Robbed: Ryan Sweeney (24.0)
OF - Adam Jones (-4.7). Robbed: Carl Crawford (17.6)

There is no data for pitchers and catchers and winners would be in line with what I thought just from watching games. As for the other winners, it is obvious the voters look at history and hitting and not for what the award is supposed to be about. Franklin Gutierrez was by far the best defensive player in the Major Leagues and the fact that he didn't win was an absolute travesty. Also, living in NY you would have thought Teixeira was the best 1B ever but according to these stats, he isn't even average. I wonder if his "greatness" was because of how bad the previous 1B (Giambi) was on defense? Oh well, tomorrow I can take apart the NL winners.

The Holmes Computer Rankings

Another week of games allows more data for my computer to find the REAL top 2 teams this year for the BCS Championship Game. How far does Iowa fall? Are Alabama and Texas still the top 2? Lets see the new Top 25...

1. Texas - 47.427
2. Alabama - 47.151
3. TCU - 45.255
4. Boise State - 44.345
5. Florida - 44.233
6. Ohio State - 42.254
7. Cincinnati - 40.935
8. Oregon - 40.312
9. Utah - 37.569
10. Georgia Tech - 37.520
11. Iowa - 37.477
12. USC - 37.032
13. BYU - 36.681
14. LSU - 36.076
15. Penn State - 35.714
16. Pittsburgh - 35.158
17. Houston - 33.965
18. Wisconsin - 33.526
19. Virginia Tech - 32.832
20. Arizona - 32.601
21. Notre Dame - 32.419
22. Miami - 32.319
23. Oklahoma St. - 32.229
24. Nebraska - 32.064
25. Stanford - 32.004

The shocker is TCU jumping ahead of Florida. The SEC East is killing Florida's strength of schedule. Time will tell if Florida can run the table, but my computer doesn't think they are one of the best 2 teams in the country this year. The PAC-10 and Big Ten lead the way with 4 teams in the Top 25. The argument that the MWC isn't as good as the AQ schools is losing credibility by the second as 3 teams are in the Top 13.

College Football Picks - Week 10

Arguably the worst BCS division is the Big 12 North. Every team already has 3 losses and none of the teams are ranked. They are just 2-8 vs ranked opponents. More troubling, is that they are just 3-10 vs the Big 12 North. In fact Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech are 9-0 vs the North. With that knowledge in hand, lets look to exploit those matchups this week.

Kansas at Kansas State (+2.5)
Kansas has won 3 in a row in this series and has the better QB. Kansas State's 3 wins in the Big 12 have come against Iowa State, Colorado and Texas A&M. Enough said. Pick: Kansas -2.5

Oklahoma State at Iowa State (+7.5)
Same logic. OSU won this meeting last year 59-17, has the better QB, and the better coach. Oklahoma State will also be looking to take out their anger from last week's loss at Texas this week. Pick: Oklahoma State -7.5

Oklahoma at Nebraska(+4)
Oklahoma won last year's meeting 62-28. The Sooners have lost 3 games by a combined 5 points. The Huskers haven't looked good in over a month. The tough DL of the Sooners should be able to bother the Huskers offense just enough to squeek out a win in Lincoln. I expect the Sooners to return to form and win by at least a TD. Pick: Oklahoma -4

Season: 12-15

The Holmes Computer Rankings

With 2/3 of the season under our belt, the Holmes Computer Rankings are starting to weed out some teams and narrow down the race for the Top 2 spots. How high does Oregon jump? Who is ranked higher right now, TCU or Boise State? Time for week 2 of the rankings.

1. Texas - 41.715
2. Alabama - 41.194
3. Boise State - 38.773
4. Florida - 38.693
5. TCU - 37.106
6. Oregon - 36.410
7. Ohio State - 35.635
8. Iowa - 35.609
9. Cincinnati - 35.133
10. Penn State - 34.164
11. LSU - 33.383
12. Georgia Tech - 33.023
13. Utah - 32.073
14. USC - 31.604
15. Notre Dame - 28.911
16. BYU - 28.740
17. Pittsburgh - 28.689
18. Oklahoma - 28.668
19. Auburn - 27.637
20. Houston - 27.465
21. Texas Tech - 27.219
22. Nebraska - 26.880
23. Virginia Tech -26.633
24. Wisconsin - 26.498
25. Texas A&M - 25.797

We have a new #1! Texas's thrashing of Oklahoma State moves them past Alabama for the top spot in the rankings. Ohio State is definitely benefiting from strength of schedule and a defense that has 3 shutouts while only allowing 11.7 ppg. Please remember these rankings are very fluid and some teams are looking a little better because they have played more games.

College Football Picks - Week 9

I am up to 11-13 and it is time to start winning or else this season will be a bust. I am 5-8 picking favorites, 4-5 picking underdogs, and 2-0 picking totals. So that tells me to pick more totals and underdogs. Can I avoid the temptation of the favorite? Here we go.

NC State at Florida State (O/U 64.5)
NC State is giving up 34 ppg and FSU 31 ppg vs FBS opponents. Pretty easy to see how the O/U is set at 64.5. In the last 3 meetings between the Wolfpack and Seminoles the totals were 44, 37, and 43. Against FBS opponents the over is 4-1 for NC State and 5-1 for FSU. So you can see why the line is so high. Vegas is trying to set the line high to avoid everyone taking the over. Well, lets play along. Pick: Under 64.5

South Carolina at Tennessee (-6)
South Carolina won last year 27-6, but Tennessee is getting better. Tennessee has become more competitive with close losses to UCLA, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama. The problem is that Tennessee has issues scoring. Hard to back a team that cant score laying 6 points against a team that plays defense. I think Tennessee will win, but it wont cover. Pick: South Carolina +6

UCLA at Oregon State (O/U 48)
Going to try and use some simple averages here to come to a conclusion. Oregon State's offense is good and UCLA's defense is good. So I would expect Oregon State to be a little under their average of 29 ppg. Oregon State's defense is bad, but UCLA's offense is worse so I don't see a bunch of points for UCLA. Factor in that Oregon State limits its turnovers, the game is in Corvalis, and both teams like to run the ball and that could keep the scores down. Pick: Under 48

Season: 11-13

World Series Prediction

Back on September 2nd I predicted that the Phillies would play the Yankees in the World Series. I looked back at the past 14 World Series Champions to find out what made them special. Based off this data, the flaws of all teams showed the Phillies and Yankees to be the strongest. Now, do I still believe the Phillies will win? Let's look at some more numbers.

I thought this series would come down to which team hit LHP the best with Sabathia, Pettite, Lee, Hamels, and Happ expected to pitch 10 games if the series goes the distance. During the regular season LHP didn't seem to bother either team (the splits are almost identical). However, the postseason is telling a different story. The Phillies in the postseason vs LHP are only hitting .189 (14-74) but have hit 5 HRs and 17 RBI so the power is still there. The Yankees in the postseason vs LHP are hitting .276 (35-127) with 5 HRs and 21 RBI. Slight edge to the Yankees right now.

The Yankees haven't faced a team in the postseason with a lineup like the Phillies. They are 7-2 in the playoffs but only scored 5+ runs in 3 games. The Yankees have been living off the long ball by out homering their oppenents 14-3 so far this postseason. Expect that to change. Factor in that the Yankees will lose the DH in the 3 games played in Philadelphia and it could be tough for them to score enough runs to beat the high-powered Phillies lineup.

I think this series will go 7, but factoring in Pedro Martinez in Game 2, the fact that the Yankees are 38-6 in their last 44 home games, Mariano Rivera, and I have to go with...pains me to say it...Yankees in 7.

NBA Preview

Last year I correctly predicted the LA Lakers would win the NBA Championship before the season started. The start of any season is great and I can't wait to watch NBA all night tongiht. I was all jacked up this morning for the new season until I heard the news that Blake Griffin will be out the first 6 weeks. The life of a Clipper fan never changes. Anyways, lets get to prediciting!

Western Conference
1. LA Lakers* - Depth will win out in regular season.
2. San Antonio* - Ginobli and Jefferson catapult them back up.
3. Utah* - Maybe not 3rd best team, but will win the NW Division.
4. Denver - Can they continue the success from last year? I say yes.
5. Portland - Oden could make them a contender.
6. Dallas - The Matrix should help revive Jason Kidd.
7. Phoenix - Return of fast break offense should make them better.
8. New Orleans - Chris Paul should carry them to the first round.

Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland* - Built for regular season.
2. Boston* - Rasheed Wallace should help burden on KG.
3. Orlando* - Surprised last year but changed formula this year.
4. Chicago - If Rose is healthy, this team is about to take off.
5. Atlanta - No longer a young team. Time to step up.
6. Miami - A healthy Wade = playoff berth.
7. Toronto - Turkoglu gives them just enough with Bosh to sneak in.
8. Washington - Getting Arenas back is key.
* denotes Division Champ

First Round
LA Lakers over New Orleans
San Antonio over Phoenix
Utah over Dallas
Portland over Denver
Cleveland over Washington
Boston over Toronto
Orlando over Miami
Chicago over Atlanta

Second Round
LA Lakers over Portland
San Antonio over Utah
Cleveland over Chicago
Boston over Orlando

Conference Finals
San Antonio over LA Lakers
Boston over Cleveland

Finals
San Antonio over Boston

I love the Spurs this year. They can play any style. A lineup of Parker, Ginobli, Jefferon, Duncan, and McDyess in crunch time is going to be outstanding to watch. They have depth too with Matt Bonner, Roger Mason, DeJuan Blair and George Hill. This could also be the last chance for them to win with Duncan coming to an end.

The Holmes Computer Rankings

I have been crunching numbers and formulas to create my own college football rankings. Today I make them public (hold the applause...LOL). I wont get into the exact formulas, but these rankings show what a team has done on the FIELD to this point in the season. My rankings don't care how long your school has been around or who your QB is. A couple of points about the rankings:

1. 1AA games aren't used in W-L and stats are thrown out
2. Games are weighted with home, road, and ranked opponents
3. Point and yardage differentials separate the contenders from the pretenders
4. Strength of Schedule component uses ratings rather than pure W-L

Time to pull back the curtain....

1. Alabama - 39.644
2. Texas - 37.658
3. Florida - 34.920
4. Boise State - 34.362
5. TCU - 32.945
6. USC - 32.518
7. Iowa - 32.393
8. Oregon - 31.881
9. Penn State - 31.420
10. Cincinnati - 31.305
11. Ohio State - 30.160
12. LSU - 29.047
13. Utah - 28.570
14. Georgia Tech - 28.224
15. Pittsburgh - 27.390
16. BYU - 27.154
17. Navy - 26.417
18. South Carolina - 26.032
19. Virginia Tech - 25.936
20. Oklahoma St. - 25.644
21. West Virginia - 25.475
22. Oklahoma - 25.257
23. Central Michigan - 25.136
24. Notre Dame - 24.993
25. Stanford - 24.295

There you have it. These rankings don't necessarily predict who is better, but rather who has played the best this season to this date. Conference strength plays a major part as well (see Iowa and ACC teams rankings). If you have any questions, feel free to ask and I will answer them all. I can't wait to see who my rankings pick as the best 2 teams at the end of the season.

College Football Picks - Week 8

Late covers have killed me recently, but the quest for .500 begins today. Time to go 3-0 and get back to winning money. I like to think I know the PAC-10 better than any other conference, so let's go back to the well to get some wins.

Iowa at Michigan State (-1)
Iowa has been living on the edge but has road wins vs Penn State and Wisconsin (teams that are better than Michigan State). The Spartans have won 3 straight and seem prime for an upset. One number jumps out at me here. Turnover margin. The Hawkeyes are +12 and the Spartans are -4. Better coach, better QB, better turnover margin leads me to my pick. Pick: Iowa +1

Oregon at Washington (+10)
Washington is 3-1 at home with wins over USC (5-1), Idaho (6-1), and Arizona (4-2). Oregon is 1-1 on the road and could be without star QB Jeremiah Masoli. If Masoli doesn't play, the QB advantage would shift to the Huskies. I like Oregon to win, but given the better QB the points are the play. Pick: Washington (+10)

Oregon State at USC (-21)
Oregon State has beaten USC 2 of the last 3 years, but both of those wins were in Corvalis. USC's offense has started to come around with the maturation of Freshman QB Matt Barkley. Oregon State's pass defense is the worst in the PAC-10 and should allow USC to score some points. But the Beavers running game should at least keep the clock running and the score close. Pick: Oregon State +21

Season: 9-12

Jeff Sagarin Must Read My Blog

I have been looking at the public BCS computers (3 of the 7 are public) to fine tune my own rankings (will be revealed next Monday). I came across Jeff Sagarin's rankings and noticed his conference rankings. He must be reading my stuff because he doesn't seem brainwashed by ESPN and the media. Here are his rankings for the 11 Division I conferences.

1 PAC-10 = 79.30
2 SOUTHEASTERN = 78.38
3 ATLANTIC COAST = 74.92
4 BIG EAST = 74.59
5 BIG TEN = 74.40
6 BIG 12 = 74.31
7 I-A INDEPENDENTS = 71.90
8 MOUNTAIN WEST = 69.82
9 WESTERN ATHLETIC = 67.66
10 CONFERENCE USA = 64.48
11 MID-AMERICAN = 62.86
12 SUN BELT = 61.68

I like what I am seeing here. About time someone other than me said that the SEC isn't the only conference that plays college football.

Why I Hate Strength of Schedule

The BCS was released and it blows my mind that Florida is ahead of Alabama and USC is #11 in the computers. What could be causing this? Well it is simple, Strength of Schedule (SOS) is the main culprit. According to this formula, Washington's home win over 6-1 Idaho would be the BEST WIN in the country so far. SAY WHAT???

Strength of Schedule
Florida (8th), Alabama (43rd), USC (67th)

Opponents Record To Date
Florida 20-16, Alabama 22-22, USC 18-20

Opponents Record on Season
Florida 37-39, Alabama 42-34, USC 42-33

Record vs Ranked Opponents
Florida 1-0, Alabama 3-0, USC 3-0

The SOS formula discounts all games vs 1AA teams and only factors in your opponents to date.

Florida sits at 8 right now at 17-7. Here is how:
Florida's opponents are 20-16.
Subtract Charleston Southern's (1AA) record of 2-4 to get 18-12.
Subtract Florida's Record of 5-0 to get 18-7.
Subtract Arkansas's win vs 1AA team to get 17-7.

Take notice that when the ENTIRE schedule is factored in the following occurs:
- Florida goes from 8th to tied for 66th
- Alabama goes from 43rd to tied for 26th
- USC goes from 67th to 32nd

Here are my main issues. These SOS only takes into account the records of your opponents. It doesn't take into account where the games were played our how your opponent got to their record. Also, this formula helps teams that play 1AA teams! Better to schedule a 1AA team and take a 0-0 than take a chance that your out of conference opponent doesn't finish with a winning record. Teams are being penalized for playing DI programs, which is ridiculous. USC getting hammered because San Jose State is 1-5. Alabama is getting murdered because Florida International and North Texas are both 1-5. Florida is prospering by playing a 1AA team even though San Jose State, North Texas, and FIU are better than Charleston Southern. How does this make any sense. You have to love a system that discourages competition. Long live the BCS!

NFL Picks - Week 6

This year is shaking out to the have and have nots. Some really horrible teams out there, so lets go against them. Its tough to lay 2 TDs but some teams in the NFL just are awful.

Baltimore (+3) at Minnesota
Philadelphia (-14.5) at Oakland
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14)

Season: 5-10

College Football Picks - Week 7

Some gigantic games out there in college football this week, but that is not where I am seeing some weakness in the lines. Lets go to some non-marquee games and see if we can find any value. Road favorites look good...

Ohio State at Purdue (+13.5)
Ohio State has scored 30+ points in all 5 games oustide the USC game. While Purdue is 1-5, they have lost 4 of those by 7 points or less. I see two major problems for the Boilermakers in this game. Their running game hasn't been good the last 3 games and they are -9 in turnover margin. If you can't run the ball on Ohio State (giving up 2.6 ypc on season) and you turn the ball over, you aren't going to compete. If Ohio State scores 30+, Purdue will need 16+ points to cover. Not likely. Pick: Ohio State -13.5

Texas A&M at Kansas St (+5.5)
Kansas State beat A&M last year 44-30, but the Aggies appear much stronger this year. K-State gave up 66 points and 739 yards last week vs Texas Tech. Texas A&M is 3-0 this year when they have run for 110+ yards. K-State is giving up 164 ypg on the ground vs FBS opponents. Look for A&M to air it out and run away with this one. Pick: Texas A&M -5.5

Miami at UCF (+14)
This one is a miss match amongst athletes. This one will exploit the weakness of UCF (256 ypg pass defense) vs the strength of Miami (253 ypg passing against 4 ranked teams). Miami's swagger is back and look for them jump all over an average CUSA team. Pick: Miami -14

Season: 8-10

NFL Picks - Week 5

This week there appears to be a devaluing of road teams. Looking at the games 3 immediately jump out at me.

New England at Denver (+3)
Does anyone believe in the Broncos even though they are 4-0? While the defense has been outstanding this year (allowing 6.5 ppg), the offense has been mediocre. Can they score enough points to beat the Patriots? The Pats offense is showing signs of life (26 points vs Atlanta and 27 vs Baltimore the last 2 weeks). In this match up I will take the QB/Coach combo of the Patriots (Brady/Belichick) over the Broncos (Orton/McDaniels). Pick: New England -3

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+4)
While these games have been close in recent years, this Titan team isn't the same. Last week in a must win, they completely laid an egg vs Jacksonville. How is a team that is giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt going to stop a red-hot Peyton Manning? Look for the Colts to air it out early and often. Also, always a smart bet to back Peyton Manning in a nationally televised night game. Pick: Indianapolis -4

New York Jets at Miami (+2)
The Jets have won 3 straight in Miami. Rex Ryan's defense is great at taking away what you do best. If the Dolphins are going to win this game they will need to find a way to throw the ball and protect Chad Henne. Considering the Dolphins only average 138 yards passing a game, I don't see that happening. Pick: Jets -2

Season Record: 4-8

College Football Picks - Week 6

My "luck" turned around last week with a 3-0 slate. As I get more information on each team, it should help us make even better picks. The first couple of weeks are always the hardest. I will be flying to Houston on Friday so the picks are coming a little earlier this week (which may help as we get better numbers from Vegas to bet on). Without further ado, here are the Week 6 picks.

Nebraska at Missouri (+3.5)
Missouri has beaten Nebraska 52-17 and 41-6 the last 2 years. That tells me that Nebraska has issues matching up against the spread offense of the Tigers. Nebraska's defense statistics look good, but they faced 3 Sun Belt teams and Virginia Tech (who isn't known for offense). Also, backing a ranked team on the road on Thursday night is usually a recipe for disaster. Pick: Missouri +3.5

Houston at Mississippi State (-1.5)
Houston is coming off a tough loss at UTEP. Mississippi State has looked better than years past but still sport a 1-3 record vs FBS competition. The key will be Houston's ability to stop the run (5.3 ypc) and Mississippi State's ability to stop the pass (8.0 ypa). The Bulldogs may control the clock, but Houston should come up with enough big plays through the air to win the game. Pick: Houston +1.5

Wisconsin at Ohio State (-16)
Ohio State beat Wisconsin 20-17 last year in Madison. Both teams want to run the ball but that fits right into the strength of both defenses. These type of games have the potential to eat up the clock fast and keep the scores down. The Badgers have also forced 3 turnovers per game on the season. It only takes 1 or 2 and this game could come down the 4th quarter. Pick: Wisconsin +16


Season Record: 7-8

College Football Poll - Week 5

As some of you know, I have been working on my own BCS computer rating system. Now that we are 5 weeks into the season, the outliers are starting to weed themselves out. While they aren't quite ready for public digestion, I will use some of the rankings to mix up my poll a bit. Here we go:

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. USC (↑3)
5. Ohio State (↑3)
6. Boise State
7. Virginia Tech
8. LSU
9. Miami (↑11)
10. Cincinnati
11. Iowa
12. Penn State
13. Oregon
14. Nebraska
15. TCU
16. Oklahoma St
17. Kansas
18. Auburn (↑6)
19. BYU
20. Oklahoma (↓14)
21. Ole Miss
22. Notre Dame
23. Stanford
24. South Carolina
25. Utah

Dropped Out: #15 Houston, #21 CAL, #23 Georgia, #25 Michigan
On the Bubble: South Florida, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin

NFL Picks - Week 4

Coming off a 3-0 day yesterday, I am feeling great. Unfortunately, I dont have much time to get into the explanations for the picks so I will just make them. Sorry.

NY Jets (+7.5) at New Orleans
San Diego (+6) at Pittsburgh
Green Bay (+3.5) at Minnesota

Season Record: 4-5

College Football Picks - Week 5

Last week was looking good until ND QB Jimmy Claussen left the game with a turf toe. These things happen. Bad luck can only last so long when making "good" picks. A lot to like this week, but I am going with these 3.

Penn State at Illinois (+7)
Both teams were embarrassed last weekend (PSU lost 21-10 to Iowa and Illinois lost 30-0 to Ohio State). The Nittany Lions have won 3 of the last 4 in this series. Two things really jump out at me in this match-up. Illinois has been outscored 67-9 in 2 games vs Missouri and Ohio State. Their pass defense has been equally as bad (254 ypg, 67% completions, and 7.7 YPA). Those aren't good omens when the strength of Penn State's offense has been passing this year. I wouldn't pick against Joe Pa coming off a loss either. Pick: Penn State -7

USC at CAL (O/U 47.5)
USC has won 7 of the last 8 games in this series but they have been low scoring. Both teams love to run the football and chew up the clock. The last 5 meetings have gone "under" and it hasn't even been close (avg score has been 35.6 despite and avg total of 56.0). With USC having a freshman QB and potentially their worst scoring offense in years, why mess with the trend. Pick: Under 47.5

Auburn at Tennesse (O/U 52)
This total was so shocking, I hate to do a double take. I know Auburn has been real good on offense this year but they haven't played a strong defensive team or played a road game yet. The score in last year's game was 14-12 with essentially the same players. Last year in 8 SEC games Tenn averaged 16.1 ppg while Auburn only managed 11.6 ppg. The Vols didn't show anything against Florida or UCLA (28 total points) to show that they are any better on offense. Unless this turns into a turnover fest, I don't see any way this game gets to 52 points. Pick: Under 52

Season Record: 4-8

College Football Poll - Week 4

Upsets and injuries were the theme to Week 4. Four teams in the Top 10 go down and Tim Tebow is taken to the hospital after being knocked out cold on the field in Lexington, KY. How does it all shake out? Here we go.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State (Continue to climb but SOS will catch up with them)
5. Virginia Tech
6. Oklahoma
7. USC (Need to see more consistent offense to elevate them)
8. Ohio State
9. LSU (Wins over UGA & UF next 2 weeks would put them near the top)
10. Cincinnati
11. Iowa (↑15)
12. Penn State (↓7)
13. TCU
14. Oregon (↑9)(Loss at Boise St might be to undefeated team)
15. Houston (↑9)(Might win Big 12 South)
16. Nebraska
17. Oklahoma St
18. Kansas
19. BYU
20. Miami (↓7)
21. CAL (↓17)
22. Ole Miss (↓11)(Guess my concerns were legitimate)
23. Georgia
24. Auburn
25. Michigan

Dropped Out: #17 Florida State, #25 Washington
On the Bubble: Stanford, South Carolina, South Florida, Utah, Missouri, Georgia Tech

NFL Picks

Time to continue my success from last weekend on NFL picks. First 3-0 day here I come...

Jacksonville at Houston (-4)
Houston is coming off a comeback win against the Titans and looks to keep it going against the Jaguars. Jacksonville lost last year 30-17 in Houston. The Jaguars haven't looked good this year. Their pass defense is allowing 294 yards per game and that isn't a good thing when facing a Houston offense with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels. Although the Texans lost at home in Week 1 to the Jets, they still are one of the best home teams in the NFL. Pick: Houston -4

Chicago at Seattle (+2.5)
Two words...Seneca Wallace. Lay the points. Pick: Chicago -2.5

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3.5)
The Steelers have won 5 straight vs the Bengals. While the Bengals have looked better this year, the Steelers have their number. The Steelers have benen struggling to score points this year, but they should be able to hold off the Bengals attack. Pick: Steelers -3.5

Season Record: 3-3

Soothsayer Soup

Coming off a 2-1 week and I am feeling great. The more we see teams, the more informed bets we can make. Here comes my first 3-0 week (wont be my last).

Missouri at Nevada (+7.5)
Missouri beat Nevada last year 69-17 and are off to a decent start this year. Nevada is 0-2 and has been outscored 20-70. Pass defense is not a strength of Nevada (119th in the nation last year) while pass offense is the staple of Missouri's game plan. Look for an aerial attack and a lot of points. While it is a long road trip for Missouri to Reno, the Tigers just have way too many weapons for the Wolfpack to slow down. Pick: Missouri -7.5

Notre Dame at Purdue (+7)
Home dogs are the theme for week 4 in college football. Notre Dame limps into the game after a nail biting win over Michigan State. Notre Dame lost star WR Michael Floyd for the season to a broken collarbone. QB Jimmy Clausen and RB Armando Allen are game-time decisions (Clausen will play, but Allen looks iffy). So why take the Irish on the road? Purdue just doesn't possess the defense (95th in pass defense) or QB play (4 TD, 5 INT) to stay close to the Irish if they don't turn the ball over. This is the same Purdue team that lost last week to Northern Illinois at home. Pick: Notre Dame -7

South Florida at Florida State (-14)
This one looked like an exciting contest until South Florida QB Matt Grothe tore his ACL last week. It is going to be hard for a new QB to make his debut on the road vs the Seminoles. Florida State is coming off an impressive victory at BYU and could let down (see Week 2 vs Jacksonville State). I don't think Bobby Bowden will let that happen again. Look for the Seminoles to wreak havoc all day on South Florida's offense. Pick: Florida State -14

Season: 3-6

Chip Kelly is all Class

Chip Kelly, the new head coach at Oregon, has had a lot to deal with in his first year on the job. The opening game loss at Boise State wasn't that bad in hindsight, but the way they lost was embarrassing. An offensive attack that was talked about as the best on the West Coast was completely shut down. Then the team's star player, LaGarrette Blount, punches an opposing player in the face. When Chip Kelly made the correct call to suspend Blount for the season that took some serious cojones. It showed that he is in charge and everyone around the program had to take notice. He put character and actions ahead of talent and wins. Not many coaches would do that. I was impressed right then and there. But then came the news yesterday that Chip Kelly sent a check for $439 to an Oregon Alum who had sent him an email complaining about the team's performance against Boise. The $439 covered the travel expenses for the individual. How many people on the planet would have made that gesture? Coach Kelly could have and probably should have just ignored the email and gone on with his day. But to take responsibility for what happened on the Smurf Turf in Boise showed an incredible amount of class. It appears that the Oregon Ducks football program is in good hands with Coach Kelly.

College Football Poll (Week 3)

Washington shocks the College Football World with an upset of #3 USC. Will that be enough to get them into my poll? How far does USC fall? Who is my new #2? How far does BYU fall after getting demolished at home by Florida St.? For those of you who care, I am creating my own BCS computer formula. I will publish the results weekly here in a couple of weeks (for the same reason the BCS isnt published until after Week 8...because you need time for the outliers to be brought back to earth). Anyways, here we go.

1. Florida
2. Alabama (Win over Virginia Tech gets them the nod over Texas)
3. Texas
4. CAL
5. Penn State
6. Boise State (↑2) (Are there enough quality wins left to keep them this high?)
7. LSU (↑8) (Win at Washington looking better every week)
8. Oklahoma (↑2) (Destroyed a decent Tulsa team with backup QB, impressive)
9. Virginia Tech (↑2) (Don't completely buy into them, but big win over Nebraska)
10. USC (↓8)
11. Ole Miss (I'm not the only non-believer, 3.5 point underdog this week)
12. Ohio State (↓3) (Have to drop Ohio State with USC's struggles)
13. Miami (↑7) (Huge opportunity with Virginia Tech and Oklahoma up next)
14. Cincinnati
15. TCU
16. Oklahoma State (↓3)
17. Florida State (Looked horrible vs Jacksonville State, but BYU no problem)
18. BYU (↓11)
19. Georgia (showed no defense again, but win on road in SEC worth staying in poll)
20. Nebraksa (↓2)
21. Kansas
22. Michigan
23. Oregon (Big win over Utah, CAL looming next weekend)
24. Houston (Can they get Texas Tech this weekend as well?)
25. Washington (Beat USC so got to give them credit. Jake Locker is a stud)

Dropped Out: #19 Utah, #23 Oregon State, #25 UCLA
On the Bubble: Auburn, North Carolina, Missouri, UCLA, Notre Dame

NFL Picks Week 2

Coming off a winning Saturday in College Football, its time to make some NFL picks to up the bankroll. Not much to like in the lines, but the Over/Unders look enticing.

Oakland at Kansas City (O/U 39)
When the Raiders and Chiefs hook up the games tend to be low scoring. The "under" has hit in 7 of the last 8 matchups with 6 of those under 33 total points. The Raiders love to run the football and that chews up the clock. The Raiders defense looked improved in Week 1 which should only help keep the totals low. Pick: Under 39 Points

Pittsburgh at Chicago (O/U 38)
Neither team figures to run the ball all that well in this matchup. That means they will have to go to the air to get points. With Troy Polamalu and Brian Urlacher out, expect the QBs to take some chances. Pick: Over 38 Points

New York Giants at Dallas (-3)
The Giants figure to pound the ball right at the Cowboys who gave up 174 yards and 5.6 yards per carry against the Buccaneers. The Cowboys offense line should have its hands full with the Giants defensive line. There will be a lot of pressure on the Cowboys with the opening of the new Stadium and we know how they have responded recently to pressure. I think the Giants win the game straight up so why not take the cushion of the points. Pick: Giants +3

Season Record: 1-2

Soothsayer Soup

Last week brought my first win of the season. Even though I am 1-5 I still stand by my picks. You can't win them all and our luck is about to turn around. I think that Vegas is starting to over value home teams and big names. So lets go the other way.

Utah at Oregon (-4.5)
This matchup is between 2 good teams, but they dont appear to be as good as last year. Oregon struggled at home last week and needed 2 defensive TDs to beat Purdue by 2 points. Utah also struggled to put away San Jose State but eventually wound up with a 10 point win. This game will be won at the line of scrimmage and Utah has put up over 233 yards rushing in each of its games this season. Oregon has given up more than 164 yards rushing in each of its games this season. Oregon also statistically has been a terrible time of possesion team. This leads me to believe that Utah will run and possess the ball. This game has FG difference written all over it. I wouldn't be all that suprised if Utah won outright, so why not take the point. Pick: Utah +4.5

Mississippi State at Vanderbilt (-9)
Not sure what it is, but this game just spoke to me. Should Vanderbilt be favored by 9 points over ANY BCS conference team? Mississippi State did beat Vanderbilt 17-14 last season to give the Commodores their first loss of the season. Even tough they went 4-4 in the SEC last year, they didnt win any of those games by 4 points. Although the Bulldogs got beat up pretty bad last week at Auburn, I feel the new coaching staff will have them prepared for one of the truly "winnable" games on their schedule. The Commodores managed only 224 yards of offense last week against an average at best LSU defense. They also gave up 195 yards rushing to LSU and the strength of the Bulldogs is their RBs. Just a gut feeling that this one comes down to the wire. Pick: Mississippi State +9

Cincinnati at Oregon State (+1)
Oregon State opened as a slight favorite in this matchup but the wise guys are all backing Cincinnati. The Beavers secondary is young and inexperienced (0 returning starters in the secondary) and it showed against UNLV. The Bearcats are loaded on offense and have playmakers that can exploit the Beavers weakness. While they only return 1 defensive starter, they looked great at Rutgers 2 weeks ago. The Bearcats beat the Beavers 2 years ago 34-3 in Cincinnati. That pushes me onto their bandwagon. Pick: Cincinnati -1

Season Record: 1-5

Tebow the Jaguar?

I really feel for Jaguars fans right about now. Just 2 years ago the team was headed in the right direction after a playoff win against the Steelers. After that win they gave their QB David Garrard a 6 year, $60 million contract. Now just 17 games later, the team is in turmoil. They lost 17,000 season ticket holders (mostly because of the economy) and now may not have a home game televised in Jacksonville all season. Hard to keep a fan base energized if the games aren't on TV. Wayne Weaver, the teams owner, has a way to re-energize the organization. His solution is to draft local hero Tim Tebow.

"Star power is incredible, and Tebow is an iconic figure. He clearly is an outstanding football player and would be an asset to any football organization." The game is such an important part of this community, and Tebow is such an iconic figure that people would legitimately think, 'Wouldn't it be great if he was a Jaguar. I'd be silly to sit here and think that's not going to be a huge thing. Clearly there's going to be a groundswell for Tebow, and we'll have to make that evaluation if we have a draft pick that's going to be anywhere near him."

Most optimists would give the Jaguars 7 wins which would put them somewhere around 12the in next year's draft. Considering most think Tebow at best is a late first round pick, they will have an opportunity to draft him. The only problem is that he doesn't project to be a NFL type QB (system issues, arm strength, accuracy, etc.) and they will have to pay him a lot of money at that spot. Do they draft Tebow just to sell tickets or do they draft the player that can help the team win? It is an interesting case study in what is more important, winning or selling tickets?

Now that the owner has come public with his love affair for Tim Tebow, how does he pass on him? They HAVE to draft him now or else they might lose whatever fan base they have left. Also, they just gave their QB a $60 million contract! How does it make any financial sense to have that much money tied into the QB position when neither one of them are going to be elite players? It is going to be a rough stretch to be a Jaguar fan.

Did Belichick Outsmart Himself?

When the Patriots traded standout DT Richard Seymour to the Raiders for a 2011 first round pick, I thought to myself "Brilliant!" They turned a 30 year old defensive lineman who will be a free agent at the end of the season into a probable high first round pick. That is a no-brainer and you make that trade almost every time. Of course, after watching the Patriots defense play on Monday Night Football it hit me that Belichick has made a huge mistake. The Patriots have aspirations of winning the Super Bowl this year. Tom Brady is in the prime of his career and you can't waste years of players of his caliber. I'm not saying that this year will be a waste for the Patriots but after watching their defense play it is going to put a lot of pressure on the offense to win games. The pass rush was almost non-existent and to top it off their best player on defense (MLB Jerod Mayo) sustained a knee injury that might keep him out for the season. The defense the way it is currently constructed would make me hesitant to pick them in a playoff game (even more if they don't get home field advantage) over teams like Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Baltimore, etc. that can run the ball and control the clock. The Patriots better win the Super Bowl this year or you can look to this trade as a major reason why they didn't.

Now, if they NFL Bargaining Agreement is changed before 2011 and a rookie wage scale is put in place, then the trade is Brilliant again!

College Football Poll (Week 2)

Big wins for USC and Michigan. Bad losses by Oklahoma State and . Lets see where they fall in my College Football Poll this week (teams that made big moves up or down in parenthesis).

1. Florida
2. USC
3. Alabama
4. Texas
5. CAL
6. Penn State
7. BYU
8. Boise State (↑2)
9. Ohio State (No change for hanging with the #2 team)
10. Oklahoma
11. Ole Miss
12. Virginia Tech
13. Oklahoma State (↓8)
14. TCU (↑2) (Defense looks as good as last year)
15. LSU
16. Cincinnati (Can make a move next week with a win at Oregon State)
17. Georgia Tech (↑4)
18. Nebraska (↑7) (Beat cupcakes soundly as they should have)
19. Utah
20. Miami (↓2)(probably unfair, but after FSU's effort I'm re-evaluating Miami)
21. Georgia (Going to have to show some defense to stay in poll next week)
22. Kansas
23. Oregon State (Escaped vs UNLV last week, need big effort this week)
24. Houston (Have to be fair, beat #5 on the road you get in my Top 25)
25. UCLA (Win on the road vs SEC you get in my Top 25)

Dropped Out: #19 Oregon, #23 Notre Dame, #24 Missouri

NFL Picks

As the great Jerry Glanville said "The NFL stands for Not For Long" which is how long you will continue to read my picks if I don't pick some winners. Its time for me to earn some of your money back lost in Week 1 of the college season. Here we go with my NFL picks for the weekend.

Buffalo at New England (-11)
The return of Tom Brady hopefully is being underestimated by the line makers. I know teams last year didnt fare well when having to cover a spread of 10+ points, the Pats should resemble the 2007 version more than the 2008 version (won 11 games by 17+ points). In 2007, they beat the Bills by 46 and 31. Hmmm....Are the oddsmakers trying to trap us? Well when factoring in that the Bills fired their offensive coordinator last week it seems like they are in utter chaos before the season has even started. Factor in three of the Bills' starting offensive linemen have never taken an NFL snap before. Not a good thing when on the road vs a Bill Belicheck defense. Pick: NE -11

Minnesota at Cleveland (+4)
On the surface this seems like Vegas is begging us to take the Vikings. While that usually ends in a loss, I just cant walk away from this one. Cleveland waited until Tuesday to pick a starting QB and that is never a good sign this late into the preseason. The Browns finished 28th in the NFL in rushing defense last year allowing 152 ypg. That is never a good sign when going up against the beast that is Adrian Peterson (Vikes were 5th in the league in rushing offense). History would indicate that Cleveland shouldn't be able to stop the run and that gives them no chance to win this game. Pick: Minnesota -4

New York Jets at Houston (-4.5)
Everyone knows the Jets are breaking in a rookie QB this weekend. I am not sure everyone knows that the Jets will be without pass rushers Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace and that the Texans are 12-4 at home the last 2 years (which is the 2nd best record in the NFL during that span). The Jets will have to get pressure on Matt Schaub or Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels will wreak havoc on the Jets defense. Without the best pass rushers I don't see that happening. I see Houston taking an early lead and forcing the Jets to get away from their game plan which is to run and take pressure of Sanchez. Pick: Houston -4.5

Season Record: 0-0

Soothsayer Soup

Well last week didnt go as planned, but we have many more months to make up for that. I made the rookie mistake of picking games on TV that would interest people rather than going for gut feel (see South Carolina and Stanford covering). Time to get back on track. Anyways, here are this week's college lines I like (tomorrow I will do 3 NFL games):

Kansas at UTEP (+12.5)
UTEP lost at home last week to Buffalo 23-17 and Kansas is no Buffalo. UTEP gave up 37.0 ppg last year, finished 115th in total defense, 104th in rushing defense and 112th in passing defense. Kansas finished 8th in the county in passing offense and I expect Kansas to win by at least 2 TDs with starting WR Dezmon Briscoe returning from suspension. While Kansas hasn't won a non-conference road game since 2003, this game should end that streak. Pick: Kansas -12.5

Oregon State at UNLV (+7)
The Beavers continue to get no respect. Remember this is a team that has beaten USC twice in the last 3 years and won 6 bowl games this decade. UNLV gave up 32.6 ppg last year, finished 103th in total defense and 110th in rushing defense. Sounds like
Jacquizz Rogers will have a field day vs the Rebels. If he doesn't I still expect the Beavers defense (23rd in total defense in 2008) to slow down the Rebels. My only concern is a young secondary for the Beavers against a decent passing game for the Rebels. Pick: Oregon State -7

Notre Dame at Michigan (+3.5)
Notre Dame beat Michigan 35-17 last year in South Bend. Their passing game predictabily looked outstanding last week (Nevada finished 119th in passing defense in 2008). Michigan showed signs of life at QB last week with 2 true freshman leading them to victory against Western Michigan. Notre Dame returns 9 starters on offense (all 5 OL are seniors) and should be able to outscore Michigan. Michigan finished 87th in the country in pass defense last year and gave up 263 yards last week. Not good when facing a passing team. If Notre Dame's defense shows up this won't even be close. Pick: Notre Dame -3.5

Season Record: 0-3

NFL Predictions

It is FINALLY footbal season and men around world couldn't be happier. Today should really be a national holiday. For all the fans, gamblers, fantasy football players, etc. tonight might bring tears to a couple of eyes. Football is back BABY! Time for my NFL predictions.

AFC
1. Patriots 14-2
2. Steelers 13-3
3. Chargers 12-4
4. Colts 11-5
5. Ravens 11-5
6. Texans 11-5

Wild Card Round
Chargers over Texans
Ravens over Colts
Divisional Round
Patroits over Ravens
Steelers over Chargers
Championship Game
Patroits over Steelers

NFC
1. Giants 12-4
2. Vikings 11-5
3. Cardinals 10-6
4. Saints 10-6
5. Packers 11-5
6. Eagles 11-5

Wild Card Round
Eagles over Cardinals
Packers over Saints
Divisional Round
Giants over Eagles
Packers over Vikings
Championship Game
Giants over Packers

Super Bowl
Patroits over Giants

MVP - Tom Brady
DPOY - Mario Williams
OROY - Knowshon Moreno
DROY - Aaron Curry

Top 5 Picks in 2010 NFL Draft
1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. St. Louis
4. Tampa Bay
5. Kansas City

Cant wait to hear where I went wrong. Let me have it!

If I had a vote....

Week one of college football is in the books and it is time to see what the voters thought. I have decided to post my vote (if I had one) for the Top 25. I will not be a victim of the first poll like so many voters will. I personally feel that there shouldn't be any rankings until Week 5. For example, if there was no preseason poll then BYU would be ranked ahead of Oklahoma this week. But since Oklahoma started at 3 and BYU at 20, then Oklahoma will probably still be ranked ahead of BYU today even though they just beat them. I also will not be afraid to move teams up and down based on performance and not on wins. For example, Oregon doesn't fall out of the rankings based on a loss at Boise State, but Iowa gets killed in my poll for beating 1AA Northern Iowa at home by 1 point. Don't worry if your team is a little low, every week they have an opportunity to move up. Time to pull the curtain back and unveil my vote.

1. Florida
2. USC
3. Alabama
4. Texas (gave up 20 points to LA-Monroe moves them down)
5. Oklahoma St
6. CAL
7. Penn St
8. BYU (big win skyrockets them up, but going to be hard to stay this high)
9. Ohio St
10. Boise St
11. Oklahoma
12. Ole Miss
13. Virginia Tech
14. LSU (struggled vs 0-12 Washington)
15. Cincinnati (defending Big East Champs destroyed Rutgers)
16. TCU
17. Utah
18. Miami (if offense plays this well, ACC crown could be in future)
19. Oregon (looked bad, but give them credit for playing at Boise St)
20. Oregon St
21. Georgia Tech
22. Georgia
23. Notre Dame
24. Missouri
25. Nebraska

There you go. These rankings will be very fluid from week to week. I cant wait to see where you disagree.

Kendry Morales needs some love

Being an Angels fan living in NYC, I get to see the East Coast media dynamic up close. Last off-season the Angels made the choice to let Mark Teixeira go and replace him with Kendry Morales. Teixeira signed for 8 years and $180 million with the Yankees and immediately became a star. He got this offer despite only playing in one All-Star Game (2005) in his 6 year major league career. Why do I bring this up? Well, while Teixeira is the next coming of Mickey Mantle in NY, his replacement in Anaheim is quitely having a better year. You would never know it though because the media doesn't mention it. Teixeira could very well end up winning the AL MVP but Morales has been just as valuable if not more valuable to his team. Here are the numbers (thru Sept. 6th):

Mark Teixeira: 132 games, .279/.378/.538/.917, 36 Doubles, 33 HR, 102 RBI, 86 Runs.
Kendy Morales: 127 games, .312/.357/.588/.945, 38 Doubles, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 73 Runs.

While the raw numbers may favor Teixeira, he is playing in a ballpark that is more condusive to offense. Factor in that the Yankees have been relatively healthy and the Angels ravaged with injuries and the case can be made that Morales has been more valuable to his team. Not to mention he is costing the Angels $19,400,000 less than what the Yankees are paying Teixeira this year. Although no one outside of California knows who you are, I am saying you SHOULD be 2nd in the AL MVP voting this year (Joe Mauer is my hands down favorite). Come on media, show Kendry some love!

Blount should be Suspended for 2009

I stayed up all night watching the Oregon vs Boise State football game. What a great thing for fans of this sport to get to watch 2 programs put a lot on the line right out of the gate. Boise State ended up winning 19-8 in a game that didn't resememble any of the offensive fireworks that were expected. As a PAC-10 fan, I wasn't nearly as embarrased by the final score (afterall Boise State is 65-2 at home since 1999) as I was with the actions of Oregon running back LaGarrette Blount after the game. Last year Boise State was accused of some cheap shots during their win in Eugene. Prior to this year's game, Blount stated "We owe that team an as-whuppin". Tensions were high and emotions on edge prior to the game. After the game was over, a couple Boise State players had some things to say to Blount. Blount showing the immaturity that caused him to be suspended from the team in February for "failure to fulfill team obligations", responded by punching a Bronco in the face. It was a despicable act that should get him suspended for the rest of the year. It was absolutely uncalled for and under no circumstances excusable. Then as he was walking off the field hearing taunts from the fans had to be retrained by assistant coaches. The kid really crossed the line and shouldn't be allowed to play college football anymore. He also cost himself a lot of money as he was projected to be a first-round prospect in next year's NFL Draft. Teams are valueing character more these days and I am sure no GM wants to invest a lot of money into someone who acted like Blount did last night. Do the right thing Oregon and tell this kid that he no longer gets the honor of wearing a college football uniform. He would be lucky to get off that easy as assault charges could be a possibility. Classless and embarrassing.

Soothsayer Soup

Who likes money? I know I do. I will be doing a weekly post on Thursdays where I will pick 3 college football games vs the spread (I will use Caesar Palace's lines). So in honor of our green friend, I have waded through the point spreads and found this week's games that we can exploit together. Without further ado, I look into my famous bowl of "Soothsayer Soup" to make everyone money.

Oregon at Boise State (-3)
Boise State is 64-2 at home the last 10 years, but Oregon is the 1st ranked opponent and only the 3rd BCS conference team to visit the "Smurf Turf". The Broncos won last year in Eugene 37-32. All signs point to another Bronco victory. I don't see it that way. The Ducks are still smarting from that loss and have openly talked about the cheap shots that Boise State took on some of its players during the game. While Boise State did win that game, it came during Week 4 of the season. Boise State wont sneak up on Oregon this year. Boise State is 3-11 vs PAC-10 teams all-time. Oregon has a bad taste in its mouth and had all off-season to think about this game. When the more talented team is focused and eager to exact revenge, it is tough to pick against them (see the point spread line dropping from 6 to 3 this week). I am chasing the smart money. Pick: Oregon +3

BYU at Oklahoma (-22.5)
Oklahoma returns last years Heisman trophy winning QB to an offense that should keep piling up the yards and points. BYU has some solid returning skill players, but their offensive line is in shambles (lost 4 starters to graduation and injuries are hurting the depth to start the season). That's not a good thing when facing what is arguably the most talented DL in the country. BYU was 1-5 ATS last year away from Provo. The spread is a little high, but as Oklahoma showed last year they aren't afraid to pile on points late (scored 58+ points in final 6 games last year). Pick: Oklahoma -22.5

LSU at Washington +17.5
The opening of the Steve Sarkisian era for the Huskies starts with a home date with the LSU Tigers. The key to this game will be QB play. LSU struggled at times last year with QB play until settling on Jordan Jefferson late in the year. UW was dealt a serious blow when Jake Locker was lost for the season during he 3rd game of the year. While that was the main reason they went 0-12, it still showed the lack of talent on the team. LSU #9 might be ranked a little high for my taste right now, but they are obviously more talented than the Huskies. LSU is hungry to show that last years dissapointing 7-5 season was a fluke (they destroyed Georgia Tech 38-3 in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl). Vegas might by regretting setting the line so low initially (opened at 14) because the smart money is chasing the Tigers. The #9 ranked team on the road vs a team that has lost 14 straight games seems too good to be true. Vegas may be trying to reel us in with this line, but I am going to take it anyway. Pick: LSU -17.5

Season Record: 0-0

MLB Playoff Predictions Review

Yesterday we looked at my predictions for the MLB awards and saw how terrible I did predicting those. Today we look at my Playoff Predictions from early April. Here is what I predicted back then:

AL Playoff teams: Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, and Yankees (WC)
ALDS - Red Sox over Angels, Yankees over White Sox
ALCS - Red Sox over Yankees
NL Playoff teams: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, and Phillies (WC)
NLDS - Mets over Dodgers, Cubs over Phillies
NLCS - Mets over Cubs
World Series - Red Sox over Mets

While not as bad as my award predictions, still pretty awful. Most of the experts would put the Yankees as the clear front runner to win the World Series based off their power numbers right now. I decided to see how important power is to winning the World Series. I went back through every season to 1995 and noticed that only 1 team had won the World Series while finishing in the Top 4 in HRs (2008 Phillies were 2nd with 214 HRs). I then looked at the avg stats of the last 14 champions to see if any trends developed to help me predict the rest of this season. Here are the average stats for the last 14 champs:

Age 29.8, 4.79 runs per game, .272 avg, .346 obp, .436 slg, .782 ops, 4.03 era, 113 era+, 1.326 whip (era+ is adjusted to account for the home team's park. I choose whip as an important stat because it shows us which teams do the best job at keeping teams off base)

I then choose the top 6 teams in each division and narrowed them down from there (AL - NYY, BOS, TB, LAA, TEX, DET...NL - PHI, ATL, STL, LAD, COL, SF). Then I looked at the stats to see if any outliers existing that would eliminate any of the above teams.

In the NL, Philadelphia came the closest to being the team that stands out. Their overall era is 4.12 and whip is 1.345, but in the 2nd half they have has been a stellar 3.14 and 1.207 respectively. I eliminated the other 5 teams for the following reasons: SF (Offense - 27th runs per game, 29th HRs, 30th in OBP and OPS), COL (Age - 2 years younger than the last 14 champs), ATL (below avg in all offense categories), LAD (young pitching, lack of power, obp worse than last 11 champs), STL (below avg in all 5 offensive categories even with Pujols). So factoring all that in, the Phillies are the least flawed team in the NL and thus will go to the World Series.

In the AL, the Yankees came the closest to being the team that stands out. Besides being 1st in every offense category except average, their pitching is getting better. Their overall era is 4.35, but in the 2nd half it is a below avg 3.93 (not bad considering the launching pad they play in). I eliminated the other 5 teams for the following reasons: LAA (era 4.79), BOS (4.69 era in 2nd half), DET (young pitching, more than 3 years younger than last 14 WS Champs and below average in all categories), TEX (.321 obp worse than any last 14 WS Champs), TB (youth and 6 games behind BOS for WC). So factoring all that in the Yankees are the least flawed team in the AL and thus will go to the World Series.

Here is how I see it today:

AL Playoff teams: Yankees, Angels, Tigers, and Red Sox(WC)
ALDS - Red Sox over Angels, Yankees over Tigers
ALCS - Yankees over Red Sox
NL Playoff teams: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies (WC)
NLDS - Phillies over Rockies, Cardinals over Dodgers
NLCS - Phillies over Cardinals
World Series - Phillies over Yankees

The Phillies will win the World Series again on the strength of pitching. It will be an exciting long series but he Phillies LHP (Lee, Hamels, and Happ) should help neutralize the Cano, Matsui, Damon, and Teixiera (less power RH, certainly in Yankee Stadium). If the Yankees can get through Boston and have Sabathia for 3 games it could swing the series, but I see see the Phillies coming through in the end.

MLB Awards Review

Now that the calendar has turned to September I wanted to look back and see how my MLB Award Predicitions are going. One of the best thing about blogging is that there is a record of what you thought. Lets see how smart I was (sarcastic) back in April:

MVP -Manny Ramirez (NL), Grady Sizemore (AL)
Cy Young -Johan Santana (NL), Jon Lester (AL)
Manager of the Year - Jerry Manuel (NL), Ron Gardenhire (AL)
Rookie of the Year - Cameron Maybin (NL), David Price (AL)

Obviously my picks leave a lot to be desired. Right now, I dont see any of my 8 picks being correct. So, lets change them. Here is what I think now.

NL MVP - Albert Pujols: .320 avg (5th), .443 obp (1st), .669 slg (1st), 1.112 ops (1st), 102 runs (1st), 41 HRs (1st), 110 RBIs (3rd), 98 walks (3rd). If anyone doesn't vote him first, they should lose the ability to vote forever. This one is a slam dunk.
Runner-Up: No one.

AL MVP - Joe Mauer: .368 avg (1st), .436 obp (1st), .615 slg (1st), 1.051 ops (1st). That alone should win him the MVP. When you factor in his 26 HRs and 80 RBIs and the fact that he is a catcher, this one should also be a slam dunk. Just think what his numbers would have been had he not missed April with a back injury.
Runner-Up: Mark Teixeira.

NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum: 13-4 (t4 wins), 2.33 ERA (2nd), 222 K's (1st), 4 CG's (t1st), 2 Shutouts (t1st), 1.03 Whip (3rd), .208 BAA (2nd). There a lot of contenders, but Lincecum is the reigning winner and no one has taken it from him. This one comes down to who pitches the best in September.
Runner-Up: Chris Carpenter, Dan Haren, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain...

AL Cy Young - Zack Greinke: 13-8 (t5th in wins), 2.32 ERA (1st), 202 K's (2nd), 6 CG's (1st), 3 Shutouts (1st), 1.08 Whip (1st), .233 BAA (1st). While this one should be easy, it will be hard for some to vote a pitcher on the worst team in the AL as the Cy Young. Doesn't matter to me as he has been by far the best pitcher in the AL this season.
Runner-Up: Justin Verlander.

NL Manager of the Year - Tony LaRussa. The Cardinals are just 1 game off the pace for the best record in the NL. All the experts had the Cubs running away with the NL Central but the Cardinals have the biggest lead (10.5 games) of any team in the Majors.
Runner-Up: Jim Tracy.

AL Manager of the Year - Mike Scioscia. The Angels have the 2nd best record in the Majors despite injuries to starting pitchers John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Kelvim Escobar and the death of Nick Adenhart (13 different pitchers have started a game this year). Now mix in the free agent defections of Mark Teixiera, Francisco Rodriguez, and John Garland and it is amazing that they are where they are.
Runner-Up: Ron Washington.

NL Rookie of the Year - JA Happ. 10-3, 2.63 ERA (5th in NL), .226 BAA (6th in NL). Happ has been the best pitcher on the defending World Series Champs. That has gotten him a lot of attention and thanks to being in the majors all year, he edges out the competition.
Runner-Up: Tommy Hanson.

AL Rookie of the Year - Andrew Bailey. Who? Exactly. Not many have noticed the Oakland Closer but check out these numbers. 6-3 with 21 saves, 1.88 ERA, 72 IP, 44 hits, 76 K's (leads all AL relievers), 0.92 Whip, and a .173 BAA. The only question will be, has anyone noticed him outside of the Bay Area.
Runner-Up: Jeff Niemann.

There you go. Now lets see how I did a month from now.

BCS Bowl Predictions

I am going to try and predict which 10 teams will play in the big money BCS games this year. In doing so, it is important to know some recent history. In the last 6 years, only 6 teams have played for the BCS Championship (Florida, LSU, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, and Ohio State). Hard to predict someone outside these 6 when you consider all are currently ranked in the Top 10. Going to take some real work by another team to convince the voters to vote against these top teams. After the Championship Game is announced, it is then very important to look at the order in which the BCS Bowls will select at-large bids, host teams, and at the large qualifications (9 wins and finish in Top 14). I see 9 automatic qualifiers leaving only one real spot as an at-large (and if Notre Dame somehow ends up in the Top 14 that number fall to 0). So without further ado, here are my sure to be dead on predictions for the 2009 BCS Bowls.

BCS Championship Game
Florida vs Texas
It is looking like the winner of Texas vs Oklahoma will end up playing Florida (Texas has won 3 of last 4). For everyone involved, lets hope Oklahoma is kept as far away from a meaningful game as possible (see 5 straight BCS losses as reason why).

Rose Bowl
USC* vs Ohio State*

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech* vs Penn State
If Notre Dame were eligible they would play in the Orange Bowl. No doubt in my mind since they pick first amongst BCS Bowls this year. I think Notre Dame gets 9 wins but not so sure they get in the Top 14 to qualify if they dont beat USC. That leaves the Orange Bowl to pick amongst a couple of teams (Rutgers, TCU, Penn State, Boise State and CAL in my scenario) and I think the tradition of the Nittany Lions leads them to Miami over CAL. Tough break for CAL but the PAC-10 never gets the benefit of the doubt ad the Big Ten continues to get 2 teams in the BCS every year even though they have lost 6 straight BCS games.

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma* vs TCU*
I think both TCU and Boise State will go 11-1. I think TCU will end up ranked higher than Boise State based off wins vs Utah and BYU. I don't think the Fiesta Bowl wants to deal with the Big East Winner Rutgers in this scenario.

Sugar Bowl
Alabama* vs Rutgers*

I see 9 automatic qualifiers this year. Of course if CAL beats USC and gets to the Rose Bowl (can see that easily happening) all of this changes. USC would almost certainly get an at large bid should they finish with 10+ wins.

Strasburg and The Nationals

Nationals Team President Stan Kasten said yesterday that the Nationals might not reach an agreement with Stephen Strasburg, whom they drafted #1 overall in the MLB Draft in June. Strasburg's agent Scott Boras had stated prior to the draft that he was looking for a $50 million contract. Most people in the industry laughed at that thought, but the precedent was set that this player was going to shatter the previous record bonus of $10.5 million that Mark Prior received in 2001. The prevailing notion was that it was going to take at least $20 million to get Strasburg signed. If no agreement is reached, the question becomes whose fault was it?

The Nationals have claimed to have offered Strasburg more money than any player has ever gotten through the draft. While I am certain that is the case, I think the Nationals are making a mistake by not making the offer public knowledge. It is important to remember that the Nationals weren't able to come to an agreement with last year's 1st round pick, Aaron Crow. Their fan base was skeptical about whether the team was even going to draft Strasburg because of the type of money it would cost to get him signed. The Nationals can't afford to not sign Strasburg and keep their fan base believing in the plan to build through scouting and player development. Losing a pitcher of Strasburg's talent would be a devastating blow to the future of the organization in more ways than one. If the Nationals go down this route 2 years in a row, it might kill what credibility they still have in the community.

The Nationals would then most likely have the #1 and #2 picks in the 2010 draft. That draft would include arguably the best pitching prospect ever (Strasburg) and the best hitting prospect of the last decade (Bryce Harper). Seeing as Boras will most likely represent Harper, it would be catastrophic for the Nationals to not come to terms with Strasburg. For this reason alone, it is in the best interest of the organization to make the offer public and put the pressure on Boras. They can't hide behind the blanket statement of "record deal offered". They need to make the offer public or forever be haunted by the reputation of being cheap and not caring about their fans.