It's championship week and the last shot to pick some winners prior to the bowl season. Point differentials can say a lot about a team's performance. While they can be run up a tad versus weaker opponents, they tend to regress to the mean this late in the season. Looking at some lines this week, I can see where some PD's (I only use Division I scores) might not match what the lines say.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-1)
PD - Cin +16.1, Pitt +12.4. Cincinnati's 28-21 win last year over Pitt snapped a three game losing streak in the series for the Bearcats. The Bearcats have played well on the road and the chance to go 12-0 will keep them focused. Pick: Cincinnati (+1)

Arizona at USC (-7.5)
PD - USC +7.2, AZ +5.7. Arizona seems to match up very well versus USC. I may be simplifying this too much, but USC the last 2 years have beaten Arizona by 7 points. USC is worse this year than the last 2 years. Arizona is better this year than the last 2 years. Statistically Arizona has the better offense and better defense (by yardage). USC is hard to beat in the Coliseum and Arizona isn't a particularly good road team. I think USC wins, but it wont be by 8 points. Pick: AZ +7.5

Houston vs East Carolina (+1)
PD - Hou +14.1, ECU +5.7. Houston beat ECU last year 41-24. This game seems to pit strength vs weakness. Houston should be able to pass at will against ECU. ECU should be able to run at will against Houston. Houston's QB is better than ECU's RB so I will take the Cougars. Pick: Houston -1

Season: 19-20