College Football Picks - Week 9

I am up to 11-13 and it is time to start winning or else this season will be a bust. I am 5-8 picking favorites, 4-5 picking underdogs, and 2-0 picking totals. So that tells me to pick more totals and underdogs. Can I avoid the temptation of the favorite? Here we go.

NC State at Florida State (O/U 64.5)
NC State is giving up 34 ppg and FSU 31 ppg vs FBS opponents. Pretty easy to see how the O/U is set at 64.5. In the last 3 meetings between the Wolfpack and Seminoles the totals were 44, 37, and 43. Against FBS opponents the over is 4-1 for NC State and 5-1 for FSU. So you can see why the line is so high. Vegas is trying to set the line high to avoid everyone taking the over. Well, lets play along. Pick: Under 64.5

South Carolina at Tennessee (-6)
South Carolina won last year 27-6, but Tennessee is getting better. Tennessee has become more competitive with close losses to UCLA, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama. The problem is that Tennessee has issues scoring. Hard to back a team that cant score laying 6 points against a team that plays defense. I think Tennessee will win, but it wont cover. Pick: South Carolina +6

UCLA at Oregon State (O/U 48)
Going to try and use some simple averages here to come to a conclusion. Oregon State's offense is good and UCLA's defense is good. So I would expect Oregon State to be a little under their average of 29 ppg. Oregon State's defense is bad, but UCLA's offense is worse so I don't see a bunch of points for UCLA. Factor in that Oregon State limits its turnovers, the game is in Corvalis, and both teams like to run the ball and that could keep the scores down. Pick: Under 48

Season: 11-13