MLB Playoff Predictions Review

Yesterday we looked at my predictions for the MLB awards and saw how terrible I did predicting those. Today we look at my Playoff Predictions from early April. Here is what I predicted back then:

AL Playoff teams: Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, and Yankees (WC)
ALDS - Red Sox over Angels, Yankees over White Sox
ALCS - Red Sox over Yankees
NL Playoff teams: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, and Phillies (WC)
NLDS - Mets over Dodgers, Cubs over Phillies
NLCS - Mets over Cubs
World Series - Red Sox over Mets

While not as bad as my award predictions, still pretty awful. Most of the experts would put the Yankees as the clear front runner to win the World Series based off their power numbers right now. I decided to see how important power is to winning the World Series. I went back through every season to 1995 and noticed that only 1 team had won the World Series while finishing in the Top 4 in HRs (2008 Phillies were 2nd with 214 HRs). I then looked at the avg stats of the last 14 champions to see if any trends developed to help me predict the rest of this season. Here are the average stats for the last 14 champs:

Age 29.8, 4.79 runs per game, .272 avg, .346 obp, .436 slg, .782 ops, 4.03 era, 113 era+, 1.326 whip (era+ is adjusted to account for the home team's park. I choose whip as an important stat because it shows us which teams do the best job at keeping teams off base)

I then choose the top 6 teams in each division and narrowed them down from there (AL - NYY, BOS, TB, LAA, TEX, DET...NL - PHI, ATL, STL, LAD, COL, SF). Then I looked at the stats to see if any outliers existing that would eliminate any of the above teams.

In the NL, Philadelphia came the closest to being the team that stands out. Their overall era is 4.12 and whip is 1.345, but in the 2nd half they have has been a stellar 3.14 and 1.207 respectively. I eliminated the other 5 teams for the following reasons: SF (Offense - 27th runs per game, 29th HRs, 30th in OBP and OPS), COL (Age - 2 years younger than the last 14 champs), ATL (below avg in all offense categories), LAD (young pitching, lack of power, obp worse than last 11 champs), STL (below avg in all 5 offensive categories even with Pujols). So factoring all that in, the Phillies are the least flawed team in the NL and thus will go to the World Series.

In the AL, the Yankees came the closest to being the team that stands out. Besides being 1st in every offense category except average, their pitching is getting better. Their overall era is 4.35, but in the 2nd half it is a below avg 3.93 (not bad considering the launching pad they play in). I eliminated the other 5 teams for the following reasons: LAA (era 4.79), BOS (4.69 era in 2nd half), DET (young pitching, more than 3 years younger than last 14 WS Champs and below average in all categories), TEX (.321 obp worse than any last 14 WS Champs), TB (youth and 6 games behind BOS for WC). So factoring all that in the Yankees are the least flawed team in the AL and thus will go to the World Series.

Here is how I see it today:

AL Playoff teams: Yankees, Angels, Tigers, and Red Sox(WC)
ALDS - Red Sox over Angels, Yankees over Tigers
ALCS - Yankees over Red Sox
NL Playoff teams: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies (WC)
NLDS - Phillies over Rockies, Cardinals over Dodgers
NLCS - Phillies over Cardinals
World Series - Phillies over Yankees

The Phillies will win the World Series again on the strength of pitching. It will be an exciting long series but he Phillies LHP (Lee, Hamels, and Happ) should help neutralize the Cano, Matsui, Damon, and Teixiera (less power RH, certainly in Yankee Stadium). If the Yankees can get through Boston and have Sabathia for 3 games it could swing the series, but I see see the Phillies coming through in the end.