BCS Bowl Predictions

I am going to try and predict which 10 teams will play in the big money BCS games this year. In doing so, it is important to know some recent history. In the last 6 years, only 6 teams have played for the BCS Championship (Florida, LSU, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, and Ohio State). Hard to predict someone outside these 6 when you consider all are currently ranked in the Top 10. Going to take some real work by another team to convince the voters to vote against these top teams. After the Championship Game is announced, it is then very important to look at the order in which the BCS Bowls will select at-large bids, host teams, and at the large qualifications (9 wins and finish in Top 14). I see 9 automatic qualifiers leaving only one real spot as an at-large (and if Notre Dame somehow ends up in the Top 14 that number fall to 0). So without further ado, here are my sure to be dead on predictions for the 2009 BCS Bowls.

BCS Championship Game
Florida vs Texas
It is looking like the winner of Texas vs Oklahoma will end up playing Florida (Texas has won 3 of last 4). For everyone involved, lets hope Oklahoma is kept as far away from a meaningful game as possible (see 5 straight BCS losses as reason why).

Rose Bowl
USC* vs Ohio State*

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech* vs Penn State
If Notre Dame were eligible they would play in the Orange Bowl. No doubt in my mind since they pick first amongst BCS Bowls this year. I think Notre Dame gets 9 wins but not so sure they get in the Top 14 to qualify if they dont beat USC. That leaves the Orange Bowl to pick amongst a couple of teams (Rutgers, TCU, Penn State, Boise State and CAL in my scenario) and I think the tradition of the Nittany Lions leads them to Miami over CAL. Tough break for CAL but the PAC-10 never gets the benefit of the doubt ad the Big Ten continues to get 2 teams in the BCS every year even though they have lost 6 straight BCS games.

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma* vs TCU*
I think both TCU and Boise State will go 11-1. I think TCU will end up ranked higher than Boise State based off wins vs Utah and BYU. I don't think the Fiesta Bowl wants to deal with the Big East Winner Rutgers in this scenario.

Sugar Bowl
Alabama* vs Rutgers*

I see 9 automatic qualifiers this year. Of course if CAL beats USC and gets to the Rose Bowl (can see that easily happening) all of this changes. USC would almost certainly get an at large bid should they finish with 10+ wins.