Some gigantic games out there in college football this week, but that is not where I am seeing some weakness in the lines. Lets go to some non-marquee games and see if we can find any value. Road favorites look good...
Ohio State at Purdue (+13.5)
Ohio State has scored 30+ points in all 5 games oustide the USC game. While Purdue is 1-5, they have lost 4 of those by 7 points or less. I see two major problems for the Boilermakers in this game. Their running game hasn't been good the last 3 games and they are -9 in turnover margin. If you can't run the ball on Ohio State (giving up 2.6 ypc on season) and you turn the ball over, you aren't going to compete. If Ohio State scores 30+, Purdue will need 16+ points to cover. Not likely. Pick: Ohio State -13.5
Texas A&M at Kansas St (+5.5)
Kansas State beat A&M last year 44-30, but the Aggies appear much stronger this year. K-State gave up 66 points and 739 yards last week vs Texas Tech. Texas A&M is 3-0 this year when they have run for 110+ yards. K-State is giving up 164 ypg on the ground vs FBS opponents. Look for A&M to air it out and run away with this one. Pick: Texas A&M -5.5
Miami at UCF (+14)
This one is a miss match amongst athletes. This one will exploit the weakness of UCF (256 ypg pass defense) vs the strength of Miami (253 ypg passing against 4 ranked teams). Miami's swagger is back and look for them jump all over an average CUSA team. Pick: Miami -14
Season: 8-10
Friday, October 16, 2009
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