Soothsayer Soup

Last week brought my first win of the season. Even though I am 1-5 I still stand by my picks. You can't win them all and our luck is about to turn around. I think that Vegas is starting to over value home teams and big names. So lets go the other way.

Utah at Oregon (-4.5)
This matchup is between 2 good teams, but they dont appear to be as good as last year. Oregon struggled at home last week and needed 2 defensive TDs to beat Purdue by 2 points. Utah also struggled to put away San Jose State but eventually wound up with a 10 point win. This game will be won at the line of scrimmage and Utah has put up over 233 yards rushing in each of its games this season. Oregon has given up more than 164 yards rushing in each of its games this season. Oregon also statistically has been a terrible time of possesion team. This leads me to believe that Utah will run and possess the ball. This game has FG difference written all over it. I wouldn't be all that suprised if Utah won outright, so why not take the point. Pick: Utah +4.5

Mississippi State at Vanderbilt (-9)
Not sure what it is, but this game just spoke to me. Should Vanderbilt be favored by 9 points over ANY BCS conference team? Mississippi State did beat Vanderbilt 17-14 last season to give the Commodores their first loss of the season. Even tough they went 4-4 in the SEC last year, they didnt win any of those games by 4 points. Although the Bulldogs got beat up pretty bad last week at Auburn, I feel the new coaching staff will have them prepared for one of the truly "winnable" games on their schedule. The Commodores managed only 224 yards of offense last week against an average at best LSU defense. They also gave up 195 yards rushing to LSU and the strength of the Bulldogs is their RBs. Just a gut feeling that this one comes down to the wire. Pick: Mississippi State +9

Cincinnati at Oregon State (+1)
Oregon State opened as a slight favorite in this matchup but the wise guys are all backing Cincinnati. The Beavers secondary is young and inexperienced (0 returning starters in the secondary) and it showed against UNLV. The Bearcats are loaded on offense and have playmakers that can exploit the Beavers weakness. While they only return 1 defensive starter, they looked great at Rutgers 2 weeks ago. The Bearcats beat the Beavers 2 years ago 34-3 in Cincinnati. That pushes me onto their bandwagon. Pick: Cincinnati -1

Season Record: 1-5