Back on September 2nd I predicted that the Phillies would play the Yankees in the World Series. I looked back at the past 14 World Series Champions to find out what made them special. Based off this data, the flaws of all teams showed the Phillies and Yankees to be the strongest. Now, do I still believe the Phillies will win? Let's look at some more numbers.
I thought this series would come down to which team hit LHP the best with Sabathia, Pettite, Lee, Hamels, and Happ expected to pitch 10 games if the series goes the distance. During the regular season LHP didn't seem to bother either team (the splits are almost identical). However, the postseason is telling a different story. The Phillies in the postseason vs LHP are only hitting .189 (14-74) but have hit 5 HRs and 17 RBI so the power is still there. The Yankees in the postseason vs LHP are hitting .276 (35-127) with 5 HRs and 21 RBI. Slight edge to the Yankees right now.
The Yankees haven't faced a team in the postseason with a lineup like the Phillies. They are 7-2 in the playoffs but only scored 5+ runs in 3 games. The Yankees have been living off the long ball by out homering their oppenents 14-3 so far this postseason. Expect that to change. Factor in that the Yankees will lose the DH in the 3 games played in Philadelphia and it could be tough for them to score enough runs to beat the high-powered Phillies lineup.
I think this series will go 7, but factoring in Pedro Martinez in Game 2, the fact that the Yankees are 38-6 in their last 44 home games, Mariano Rivera, and I have to go with...pains me to say it...Yankees in 7.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
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2 comments:
hmmm....if the Yanks have to see Cliff Lee again in game 7, I say advantage Phills. It pains me to say either team will win...
Not sure after Manuel put Lee back out for 9th in Game 1 that he will be able to go in Game 4. No Game 4 = No Game 7. Advantage Push...I mean Yankees.
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