College Football Picks - Week 5

Last week was looking good until ND QB Jimmy Claussen left the game with a turf toe. These things happen. Bad luck can only last so long when making "good" picks. A lot to like this week, but I am going with these 3.

Penn State at Illinois (+7)
Both teams were embarrassed last weekend (PSU lost 21-10 to Iowa and Illinois lost 30-0 to Ohio State). The Nittany Lions have won 3 of the last 4 in this series. Two things really jump out at me in this match-up. Illinois has been outscored 67-9 in 2 games vs Missouri and Ohio State. Their pass defense has been equally as bad (254 ypg, 67% completions, and 7.7 YPA). Those aren't good omens when the strength of Penn State's offense has been passing this year. I wouldn't pick against Joe Pa coming off a loss either. Pick: Penn State -7

USC at CAL (O/U 47.5)
USC has won 7 of the last 8 games in this series but they have been low scoring. Both teams love to run the football and chew up the clock. The last 5 meetings have gone "under" and it hasn't even been close (avg score has been 35.6 despite and avg total of 56.0). With USC having a freshman QB and potentially their worst scoring offense in years, why mess with the trend. Pick: Under 47.5

Auburn at Tennesse (O/U 52)
This total was so shocking, I hate to do a double take. I know Auburn has been real good on offense this year but they haven't played a strong defensive team or played a road game yet. The score in last year's game was 14-12 with essentially the same players. Last year in 8 SEC games Tenn averaged 16.1 ppg while Auburn only managed 11.6 ppg. The Vols didn't show anything against Florida or UCLA (28 total points) to show that they are any better on offense. Unless this turns into a turnover fest, I don't see any way this game gets to 52 points. Pick: Under 52

Season Record: 4-8