I am up to 11-13 and it is time to start winning or else this season will be a bust. I am 5-8 picking favorites, 4-5 picking underdogs, and 2-0 picking totals. So that tells me to pick more totals and underdogs. Can I avoid the temptation of the favorite? Here we go.
NC State at Florida State (O/U 64.5)
NC State is giving up 34 ppg and FSU 31 ppg vs FBS opponents. Pretty easy to see how the O/U is set at 64.5. In the last 3 meetings between the Wolfpack and Seminoles the totals were 44, 37, and 43. Against FBS opponents the over is 4-1 for NC State and 5-1 for FSU. So you can see why the line is so high. Vegas is trying to set the line high to avoid everyone taking the over. Well, lets play along. Pick: Under 64.5
South Carolina at Tennessee (-6)
South Carolina won last year 27-6, but Tennessee is getting better. Tennessee has become more competitive with close losses to UCLA, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama. The problem is that Tennessee has issues scoring. Hard to back a team that cant score laying 6 points against a team that plays defense. I think Tennessee will win, but it wont cover. Pick: South Carolina +6
UCLA at Oregon State (O/U 48)
Going to try and use some simple averages here to come to a conclusion. Oregon State's offense is good and UCLA's defense is good. So I would expect Oregon State to be a little under their average of 29 ppg. Oregon State's defense is bad, but UCLA's offense is worse so I don't see a bunch of points for UCLA. Factor in that Oregon State limits its turnovers, the game is in Corvalis, and both teams like to run the ball and that could keep the scores down. Pick: Under 48
Season: 11-13
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
World Series Prediction
Back on September 2nd I predicted that the Phillies would play the Yankees in the World Series. I looked back at the past 14 World Series Champions to find out what made them special. Based off this data, the flaws of all teams showed the Phillies and Yankees to be the strongest. Now, do I still believe the Phillies will win? Let's look at some more numbers.
I thought this series would come down to which team hit LHP the best with Sabathia, Pettite, Lee, Hamels, and Happ expected to pitch 10 games if the series goes the distance. During the regular season LHP didn't seem to bother either team (the splits are almost identical). However, the postseason is telling a different story. The Phillies in the postseason vs LHP are only hitting .189 (14-74) but have hit 5 HRs and 17 RBI so the power is still there. The Yankees in the postseason vs LHP are hitting .276 (35-127) with 5 HRs and 21 RBI. Slight edge to the Yankees right now.
The Yankees haven't faced a team in the postseason with a lineup like the Phillies. They are 7-2 in the playoffs but only scored 5+ runs in 3 games. The Yankees have been living off the long ball by out homering their oppenents 14-3 so far this postseason. Expect that to change. Factor in that the Yankees will lose the DH in the 3 games played in Philadelphia and it could be tough for them to score enough runs to beat the high-powered Phillies lineup.
I think this series will go 7, but factoring in Pedro Martinez in Game 2, the fact that the Yankees are 38-6 in their last 44 home games, Mariano Rivera, and I have to go with...pains me to say it...Yankees in 7.
I thought this series would come down to which team hit LHP the best with Sabathia, Pettite, Lee, Hamels, and Happ expected to pitch 10 games if the series goes the distance. During the regular season LHP didn't seem to bother either team (the splits are almost identical). However, the postseason is telling a different story. The Phillies in the postseason vs LHP are only hitting .189 (14-74) but have hit 5 HRs and 17 RBI so the power is still there. The Yankees in the postseason vs LHP are hitting .276 (35-127) with 5 HRs and 21 RBI. Slight edge to the Yankees right now.
The Yankees haven't faced a team in the postseason with a lineup like the Phillies. They are 7-2 in the playoffs but only scored 5+ runs in 3 games. The Yankees have been living off the long ball by out homering their oppenents 14-3 so far this postseason. Expect that to change. Factor in that the Yankees will lose the DH in the 3 games played in Philadelphia and it could be tough for them to score enough runs to beat the high-powered Phillies lineup.
I think this series will go 7, but factoring in Pedro Martinez in Game 2, the fact that the Yankees are 38-6 in their last 44 home games, Mariano Rivera, and I have to go with...pains me to say it...Yankees in 7.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
NBA Preview
Last year I correctly predicted the LA Lakers would win the NBA Championship before the season started. The start of any season is great and I can't wait to watch NBA all night tongiht. I was all jacked up this morning for the new season until I heard the news that Blake Griffin will be out the first 6 weeks. The life of a Clipper fan never changes. Anyways, lets get to prediciting!
Western Conference
1. LA Lakers* - Depth will win out in regular season.
2. San Antonio* - Ginobli and Jefferson catapult them back up.
3. Utah* - Maybe not 3rd best team, but will win the NW Division.
4. Denver - Can they continue the success from last year? I say yes.
5. Portland - Oden could make them a contender.
6. Dallas - The Matrix should help revive Jason Kidd.
7. Phoenix - Return of fast break offense should make them better.
8. New Orleans - Chris Paul should carry them to the first round.
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland* - Built for regular season.
2. Boston* - Rasheed Wallace should help burden on KG.
3. Orlando* - Surprised last year but changed formula this year.
4. Chicago - If Rose is healthy, this team is about to take off.
5. Atlanta - No longer a young team. Time to step up.
6. Miami - A healthy Wade = playoff berth.
7. Toronto - Turkoglu gives them just enough with Bosh to sneak in.
8. Washington - Getting Arenas back is key.
* denotes Division Champ
First Round
LA Lakers over New Orleans
San Antonio over Phoenix
Utah over Dallas
Portland over Denver
Cleveland over Washington
Boston over Toronto
Orlando over Miami
Chicago over Atlanta
Second Round
LA Lakers over Portland
San Antonio over Utah
Cleveland over Chicago
Boston over Orlando
Conference Finals
San Antonio over LA Lakers
Boston over Cleveland
Finals
San Antonio over Boston
I love the Spurs this year. They can play any style. A lineup of Parker, Ginobli, Jefferon, Duncan, and McDyess in crunch time is going to be outstanding to watch. They have depth too with Matt Bonner, Roger Mason, DeJuan Blair and George Hill. This could also be the last chance for them to win with Duncan coming to an end.
Western Conference
1. LA Lakers* - Depth will win out in regular season.
2. San Antonio* - Ginobli and Jefferson catapult them back up.
3. Utah* - Maybe not 3rd best team, but will win the NW Division.
4. Denver - Can they continue the success from last year? I say yes.
5. Portland - Oden could make them a contender.
6. Dallas - The Matrix should help revive Jason Kidd.
7. Phoenix - Return of fast break offense should make them better.
8. New Orleans - Chris Paul should carry them to the first round.
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland* - Built for regular season.
2. Boston* - Rasheed Wallace should help burden on KG.
3. Orlando* - Surprised last year but changed formula this year.
4. Chicago - If Rose is healthy, this team is about to take off.
5. Atlanta - No longer a young team. Time to step up.
6. Miami - A healthy Wade = playoff berth.
7. Toronto - Turkoglu gives them just enough with Bosh to sneak in.
8. Washington - Getting Arenas back is key.
* denotes Division Champ
First Round
LA Lakers over New Orleans
San Antonio over Phoenix
Utah over Dallas
Portland over Denver
Cleveland over Washington
Boston over Toronto
Orlando over Miami
Chicago over Atlanta
Second Round
LA Lakers over Portland
San Antonio over Utah
Cleveland over Chicago
Boston over Orlando
Conference Finals
San Antonio over LA Lakers
Boston over Cleveland
Finals
San Antonio over Boston
I love the Spurs this year. They can play any style. A lineup of Parker, Ginobli, Jefferon, Duncan, and McDyess in crunch time is going to be outstanding to watch. They have depth too with Matt Bonner, Roger Mason, DeJuan Blair and George Hill. This could also be the last chance for them to win with Duncan coming to an end.
Monday, October 26, 2009
The Holmes Computer Rankings
I have been crunching numbers and formulas to create my own college football rankings. Today I make them public (hold the applause...LOL). I wont get into the exact formulas, but these rankings show what a team has done on the FIELD to this point in the season. My rankings don't care how long your school has been around or who your QB is. A couple of points about the rankings:
There you have it. These rankings don't necessarily predict who is better, but rather who has played the best this season to this date. Conference strength plays a major part as well (see Iowa and ACC teams rankings). If you have any questions, feel free to ask and I will answer them all. I can't wait to see who my rankings pick as the best 2 teams at the end of the season.
- 1AA games aren't used in W-L and stats are thrown out
- Games are weighted with home, road, and ranked opponents
- Point and yardage differentials separate the contenders from the pretenders
- Strength of Schedule component uses ratings rather than pure W-L
1. Alabama - 39.644
2. Texas - 37.658
3. Florida - 34.920
4. Boise State - 34.362
5. TCU - 32.945
6. USC - 32.518
7. Iowa - 32.393
8. Oregon - 31.881
9. Penn State - 31.420
10. Cincinnati - 31.305
11. Ohio State - 30.160
12. LSU - 29.047
13. Utah - 28.570
14. Georgia Tech - 28.224
15. Pittsburgh - 27.390
16. BYU - 27.154
17. Navy - 26.417
18. South Carolina - 26.032
19. Virginia Tech - 25.936
20. Oklahoma St. - 25.644
21. West Virginia - 25.475
22. Oklahoma - 25.257
23. Central Michigan - 25.136
24. Notre Dame - 24.993
25. Stanford - 24.295
There you have it. These rankings don't necessarily predict who is better, but rather who has played the best this season to this date. Conference strength plays a major part as well (see Iowa and ACC teams rankings). If you have any questions, feel free to ask and I will answer them all. I can't wait to see who my rankings pick as the best 2 teams at the end of the season.
Friday, October 23, 2009
College Football Picks - Week 8
Late covers have killed me recently, but the quest for .500 begins today. Time to go 3-0 and get back to winning money. I like to think I know the PAC-10 better than any other conference, so let's go back to the well to get some wins.
Iowa at Michigan State (-1)
Iowa has been living on the edge but has road wins vs Penn State and Wisconsin (teams that are better than Michigan State). The Spartans have won 3 straight and seem prime for an upset. One number jumps out at me here. Turnover margin. The Hawkeyes are +12 and the Spartans are -4. Better coach, better QB, better turnover margin leads me to my pick. Pick: Iowa +1
Oregon at Washington (+10)
Washington is 3-1 at home with wins over USC (5-1), Idaho (6-1), and Arizona (4-2). Oregon is 1-1 on the road and could be without star QB Jeremiah Masoli. If Masoli doesn't play, the QB advantage would shift to the Huskies. I like Oregon to win, but given the better QB the points are the play. Pick: Washington (+10)
Oregon State at USC (-21)
Oregon State has beaten USC 2 of the last 3 years, but both of those wins were in Corvalis. USC's offense has started to come around with the maturation of Freshman QB Matt Barkley. Oregon State's pass defense is the worst in the PAC-10 and should allow USC to score some points. But the Beavers running game should at least keep the clock running and the score close. Pick: Oregon State +21
Season: 9-12
Iowa at Michigan State (-1)
Iowa has been living on the edge but has road wins vs Penn State and Wisconsin (teams that are better than Michigan State). The Spartans have won 3 straight and seem prime for an upset. One number jumps out at me here. Turnover margin. The Hawkeyes are +12 and the Spartans are -4. Better coach, better QB, better turnover margin leads me to my pick. Pick: Iowa +1
Oregon at Washington (+10)
Washington is 3-1 at home with wins over USC (5-1), Idaho (6-1), and Arizona (4-2). Oregon is 1-1 on the road and could be without star QB Jeremiah Masoli. If Masoli doesn't play, the QB advantage would shift to the Huskies. I like Oregon to win, but given the better QB the points are the play. Pick: Washington (+10)
Oregon State at USC (-21)
Oregon State has beaten USC 2 of the last 3 years, but both of those wins were in Corvalis. USC's offense has started to come around with the maturation of Freshman QB Matt Barkley. Oregon State's pass defense is the worst in the PAC-10 and should allow USC to score some points. But the Beavers running game should at least keep the clock running and the score close. Pick: Oregon State +21
Season: 9-12
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Jeff Sagarin Must Read My Blog
I have been looking at the public BCS computers (3 of the 7 are public) to fine tune my own rankings (will be revealed next Monday). I came across Jeff Sagarin's rankings and noticed his conference rankings. He must be reading my stuff because he doesn't seem brainwashed by ESPN and the media. Here are his rankings for the 11 Division I conferences.
1 PAC-10 = 79.30
2 SOUTHEASTERN = 78.38
3 ATLANTIC COAST = 74.92
4 BIG EAST = 74.59
5 BIG TEN = 74.40
6 BIG 12 = 74.31
7 I-A INDEPENDENTS = 71.90
8 MOUNTAIN WEST = 69.82
9 WESTERN ATHLETIC = 67.66
10 CONFERENCE USA = 64.48
11 MID-AMERICAN = 62.86
12 SUN BELT = 61.68
I like what I am seeing here. About time someone other than me said that the SEC isn't the only conference that plays college football.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Why I Hate Strength of Schedule
The BCS was released and it blows my mind that Florida is ahead of Alabama and USC is #11 in the computers. What could be causing this? Well it is simple, Strength of Schedule (SOS) is the main culprit. According to this formula, Washington's home win over 6-1 Idaho would be the BEST WIN in the country so far. SAY WHAT???
Strength of Schedule
Florida (8th), Alabama (43rd), USC (67th)
Opponents Record To Date
Florida 20-16, Alabama 22-22, USC 18-20
Opponents Record on Season
Florida 37-39, Alabama 42-34, USC 42-33
Record vs Ranked Opponents
Florida 1-0, Alabama 3-0, USC 3-0
The SOS formula discounts all games vs 1AA teams and only factors in your opponents to date.
Florida sits at 8 right now at 17-7. Here is how:
Florida's opponents are 20-16.
Subtract Charleston Southern's (1AA) record of 2-4 to get 18-12.
Subtract Florida's Record of 5-0 to get 18-7.
Subtract Arkansas's win vs 1AA team to get 17-7.
Take notice that when the ENTIRE schedule is factored in the following occurs:
- Florida goes from 8th to tied for 66th
- Alabama goes from 43rd to tied for 26th
- USC goes from 67th to 32nd
Here are my main issues. These SOS only takes into account the records of your opponents. It doesn't take into account where the games were played our how your opponent got to their record. Also, this formula helps teams that play 1AA teams! Better to schedule a 1AA team and take a 0-0 than take a chance that your out of conference opponent doesn't finish with a winning record. Teams are being penalized for playing DI programs, which is ridiculous. USC getting hammered because San Jose State is 1-5. Alabama is getting murdered because Florida International and North Texas are both 1-5. Florida is prospering by playing a 1AA team even though San Jose State, North Texas, and FIU are better than Charleston Southern. How does this make any sense. You have to love a system that discourages competition. Long live the BCS!
Strength of Schedule
Florida (8th), Alabama (43rd), USC (67th)
Opponents Record To Date
Florida 20-16, Alabama 22-22, USC 18-20
Opponents Record on Season
Florida 37-39, Alabama 42-34, USC 42-33
Record vs Ranked Opponents
Florida 1-0, Alabama 3-0, USC 3-0
The SOS formula discounts all games vs 1AA teams and only factors in your opponents to date.
Florida sits at 8 right now at 17-7. Here is how:
Florida's opponents are 20-16.
Subtract Charleston Southern's (1AA) record of 2-4 to get 18-12.
Subtract Florida's Record of 5-0 to get 18-7.
Subtract Arkansas's win vs 1AA team to get 17-7.
Take notice that when the ENTIRE schedule is factored in the following occurs:
- Florida goes from 8th to tied for 66th
- Alabama goes from 43rd to tied for 26th
- USC goes from 67th to 32nd
Here are my main issues. These SOS only takes into account the records of your opponents. It doesn't take into account where the games were played our how your opponent got to their record. Also, this formula helps teams that play 1AA teams! Better to schedule a 1AA team and take a 0-0 than take a chance that your out of conference opponent doesn't finish with a winning record. Teams are being penalized for playing DI programs, which is ridiculous. USC getting hammered because San Jose State is 1-5. Alabama is getting murdered because Florida International and North Texas are both 1-5. Florida is prospering by playing a 1AA team even though San Jose State, North Texas, and FIU are better than Charleston Southern. How does this make any sense. You have to love a system that discourages competition. Long live the BCS!
Sunday, October 18, 2009
NFL Picks - Week 6
This year is shaking out to the have and have nots. Some really horrible teams out there, so lets go against them. Its tough to lay 2 TDs but some teams in the NFL just are awful.
Baltimore (+3) at Minnesota
Philadelphia (-14.5) at Oakland
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14)
Season: 5-10
Baltimore (+3) at Minnesota
Philadelphia (-14.5) at Oakland
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14)
Season: 5-10
Friday, October 16, 2009
College Football Picks - Week 7
Some gigantic games out there in college football this week, but that is not where I am seeing some weakness in the lines. Lets go to some non-marquee games and see if we can find any value. Road favorites look good...
Ohio State at Purdue (+13.5)
Ohio State has scored 30+ points in all 5 games oustide the USC game. While Purdue is 1-5, they have lost 4 of those by 7 points or less. I see two major problems for the Boilermakers in this game. Their running game hasn't been good the last 3 games and they are -9 in turnover margin. If you can't run the ball on Ohio State (giving up 2.6 ypc on season) and you turn the ball over, you aren't going to compete. If Ohio State scores 30+, Purdue will need 16+ points to cover. Not likely. Pick: Ohio State -13.5
Texas A&M at Kansas St (+5.5)
Kansas State beat A&M last year 44-30, but the Aggies appear much stronger this year. K-State gave up 66 points and 739 yards last week vs Texas Tech. Texas A&M is 3-0 this year when they have run for 110+ yards. K-State is giving up 164 ypg on the ground vs FBS opponents. Look for A&M to air it out and run away with this one. Pick: Texas A&M -5.5
Miami at UCF (+14)
This one is a miss match amongst athletes. This one will exploit the weakness of UCF (256 ypg pass defense) vs the strength of Miami (253 ypg passing against 4 ranked teams). Miami's swagger is back and look for them jump all over an average CUSA team. Pick: Miami -14
Season: 8-10
Ohio State at Purdue (+13.5)
Ohio State has scored 30+ points in all 5 games oustide the USC game. While Purdue is 1-5, they have lost 4 of those by 7 points or less. I see two major problems for the Boilermakers in this game. Their running game hasn't been good the last 3 games and they are -9 in turnover margin. If you can't run the ball on Ohio State (giving up 2.6 ypc on season) and you turn the ball over, you aren't going to compete. If Ohio State scores 30+, Purdue will need 16+ points to cover. Not likely. Pick: Ohio State -13.5
Texas A&M at Kansas St (+5.5)
Kansas State beat A&M last year 44-30, but the Aggies appear much stronger this year. K-State gave up 66 points and 739 yards last week vs Texas Tech. Texas A&M is 3-0 this year when they have run for 110+ yards. K-State is giving up 164 ypg on the ground vs FBS opponents. Look for A&M to air it out and run away with this one. Pick: Texas A&M -5.5
Miami at UCF (+14)
This one is a miss match amongst athletes. This one will exploit the weakness of UCF (256 ypg pass defense) vs the strength of Miami (253 ypg passing against 4 ranked teams). Miami's swagger is back and look for them jump all over an average CUSA team. Pick: Miami -14
Season: 8-10
Saturday, October 10, 2009
NFL Picks - Week 5
This week there appears to be a devaluing of road teams. Looking at the games 3 immediately jump out at me.
New England at Denver (+3)
Does anyone believe in the Broncos even though they are 4-0? While the defense has been outstanding this year (allowing 6.5 ppg), the offense has been mediocre. Can they score enough points to beat the Patriots? The Pats offense is showing signs of life (26 points vs Atlanta and 27 vs Baltimore the last 2 weeks). In this match up I will take the QB/Coach combo of the Patriots (Brady/Belichick) over the Broncos (Orton/McDaniels). Pick: New England -3
Indianapolis at Tennessee (+4)
While these games have been close in recent years, this Titan team isn't the same. Last week in a must win, they completely laid an egg vs Jacksonville. How is a team that is giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt going to stop a red-hot Peyton Manning? Look for the Colts to air it out early and often. Also, always a smart bet to back Peyton Manning in a nationally televised night game. Pick: Indianapolis -4
New York Jets at Miami (+2)
The Jets have won 3 straight in Miami. Rex Ryan's defense is great at taking away what you do best. If the Dolphins are going to win this game they will need to find a way to throw the ball and protect Chad Henne. Considering the Dolphins only average 138 yards passing a game, I don't see that happening. Pick: Jets -2
Season Record: 4-8
New England at Denver (+3)
Does anyone believe in the Broncos even though they are 4-0? While the defense has been outstanding this year (allowing 6.5 ppg), the offense has been mediocre. Can they score enough points to beat the Patriots? The Pats offense is showing signs of life (26 points vs Atlanta and 27 vs Baltimore the last 2 weeks). In this match up I will take the QB/Coach combo of the Patriots (Brady/Belichick) over the Broncos (Orton/McDaniels). Pick: New England -3
Indianapolis at Tennessee (+4)
While these games have been close in recent years, this Titan team isn't the same. Last week in a must win, they completely laid an egg vs Jacksonville. How is a team that is giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt going to stop a red-hot Peyton Manning? Look for the Colts to air it out early and often. Also, always a smart bet to back Peyton Manning in a nationally televised night game. Pick: Indianapolis -4
New York Jets at Miami (+2)
The Jets have won 3 straight in Miami. Rex Ryan's defense is great at taking away what you do best. If the Dolphins are going to win this game they will need to find a way to throw the ball and protect Chad Henne. Considering the Dolphins only average 138 yards passing a game, I don't see that happening. Pick: Jets -2
Season Record: 4-8
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
College Football Picks - Week 6
My "luck" turned around last week with a 3-0 slate. As I get more information on each team, it should help us make even better picks. The first couple of weeks are always the hardest. I will be flying to Houston on Friday so the picks are coming a little earlier this week (which may help as we get better numbers from Vegas to bet on). Without further ado, here are the Week 6 picks.
Nebraska at Missouri (+3.5)
Missouri has beaten Nebraska 52-17 and 41-6 the last 2 years. That tells me that Nebraska has issues matching up against the spread offense of the Tigers. Nebraska's defense statistics look good, but they faced 3 Sun Belt teams and Virginia Tech (who isn't known for offense). Also, backing a ranked team on the road on Thursday night is usually a recipe for disaster. Pick: Missouri +3.5
Houston at Mississippi State (-1.5)
Houston is coming off a tough loss at UTEP. Mississippi State has looked better than years past but still sport a 1-3 record vs FBS competition. The key will be Houston's ability to stop the run (5.3 ypc) and Mississippi State's ability to stop the pass (8.0 ypa). The Bulldogs may control the clock, but Houston should come up with enough big plays through the air to win the game. Pick: Houston +1.5
Wisconsin at Ohio State (-16)
Ohio State beat Wisconsin 20-17 last year in Madison. Both teams want to run the ball but that fits right into the strength of both defenses. These type of games have the potential to eat up the clock fast and keep the scores down. The Badgers have also forced 3 turnovers per game on the season. It only takes 1 or 2 and this game could come down the 4th quarter. Pick: Wisconsin +16
Season Record: 7-8
Nebraska at Missouri (+3.5)
Missouri has beaten Nebraska 52-17 and 41-6 the last 2 years. That tells me that Nebraska has issues matching up against the spread offense of the Tigers. Nebraska's defense statistics look good, but they faced 3 Sun Belt teams and Virginia Tech (who isn't known for offense). Also, backing a ranked team on the road on Thursday night is usually a recipe for disaster. Pick: Missouri +3.5
Houston at Mississippi State (-1.5)
Houston is coming off a tough loss at UTEP. Mississippi State has looked better than years past but still sport a 1-3 record vs FBS competition. The key will be Houston's ability to stop the run (5.3 ypc) and Mississippi State's ability to stop the pass (8.0 ypa). The Bulldogs may control the clock, but Houston should come up with enough big plays through the air to win the game. Pick: Houston +1.5
Wisconsin at Ohio State (-16)
Ohio State beat Wisconsin 20-17 last year in Madison. Both teams want to run the ball but that fits right into the strength of both defenses. These type of games have the potential to eat up the clock fast and keep the scores down. The Badgers have also forced 3 turnovers per game on the season. It only takes 1 or 2 and this game could come down the 4th quarter. Pick: Wisconsin +16
Season Record: 7-8
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
College Football Poll - Week 5
As some of you know, I have been working on my own BCS computer rating system. Now that we are 5 weeks into the season, the outliers are starting to weed themselves out. While they aren't quite ready for public digestion, I will use some of the rankings to mix up my poll a bit. Here we go:
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. USC (↑3)
5. Ohio State (↑3)
6. Boise State
7. Virginia Tech
8. LSU
9. Miami (↑11)
10. Cincinnati
11. Iowa
12. Penn State
13. Oregon
14. Nebraska
15. TCU
16. Oklahoma St
17. Kansas
18. Auburn (↑6)
19. BYU
20. Oklahoma (↓14)
21. Ole Miss
22. Notre Dame
23. Stanford
24. South Carolina
25. Utah
Dropped Out: #15 Houston, #21 CAL, #23 Georgia, #25 Michigan
On the Bubble: South Florida, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. USC (↑3)
5. Ohio State (↑3)
6. Boise State
7. Virginia Tech
8. LSU
9. Miami (↑11)
10. Cincinnati
11. Iowa
12. Penn State
13. Oregon
14. Nebraska
15. TCU
16. Oklahoma St
17. Kansas
18. Auburn (↑6)
19. BYU
20. Oklahoma (↓14)
21. Ole Miss
22. Notre Dame
23. Stanford
24. South Carolina
25. Utah
Dropped Out: #15 Houston, #21 CAL, #23 Georgia, #25 Michigan
On the Bubble: South Florida, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin
Sunday, October 4, 2009
NFL Picks - Week 4
Coming off a 3-0 day yesterday, I am feeling great. Unfortunately, I dont have much time to get into the explanations for the picks so I will just make them. Sorry.
NY Jets (+7.5) at New Orleans
San Diego (+6) at Pittsburgh
Green Bay (+3.5) at Minnesota
Season Record: 4-5
NY Jets (+7.5) at New Orleans
San Diego (+6) at Pittsburgh
Green Bay (+3.5) at Minnesota
Season Record: 4-5
Thursday, October 1, 2009
College Football Picks - Week 5
Last week was looking good until ND QB Jimmy Claussen left the game with a turf toe. These things happen. Bad luck can only last so long when making "good" picks. A lot to like this week, but I am going with these 3.
Penn State at Illinois (+7)
Both teams were embarrassed last weekend (PSU lost 21-10 to Iowa and Illinois lost 30-0 to Ohio State). The Nittany Lions have won 3 of the last 4 in this series. Two things really jump out at me in this match-up. Illinois has been outscored 67-9 in 2 games vs Missouri and Ohio State. Their pass defense has been equally as bad (254 ypg, 67% completions, and 7.7 YPA). Those aren't good omens when the strength of Penn State's offense has been passing this year. I wouldn't pick against Joe Pa coming off a loss either. Pick: Penn State -7
USC at CAL (O/U 47.5)
USC has won 7 of the last 8 games in this series but they have been low scoring. Both teams love to run the football and chew up the clock. The last 5 meetings have gone "under" and it hasn't even been close (avg score has been 35.6 despite and avg total of 56.0). With USC having a freshman QB and potentially their worst scoring offense in years, why mess with the trend. Pick: Under 47.5
Auburn at Tennesse (O/U 52)
This total was so shocking, I hate to do a double take. I know Auburn has been real good on offense this year but they haven't played a strong defensive team or played a road game yet. The score in last year's game was 14-12 with essentially the same players. Last year in 8 SEC games Tenn averaged 16.1 ppg while Auburn only managed 11.6 ppg. The Vols didn't show anything against Florida or UCLA (28 total points) to show that they are any better on offense. Unless this turns into a turnover fest, I don't see any way this game gets to 52 points. Pick: Under 52
Season Record: 4-8
Penn State at Illinois (+7)
Both teams were embarrassed last weekend (PSU lost 21-10 to Iowa and Illinois lost 30-0 to Ohio State). The Nittany Lions have won 3 of the last 4 in this series. Two things really jump out at me in this match-up. Illinois has been outscored 67-9 in 2 games vs Missouri and Ohio State. Their pass defense has been equally as bad (254 ypg, 67% completions, and 7.7 YPA). Those aren't good omens when the strength of Penn State's offense has been passing this year. I wouldn't pick against Joe Pa coming off a loss either. Pick: Penn State -7
USC at CAL (O/U 47.5)
USC has won 7 of the last 8 games in this series but they have been low scoring. Both teams love to run the football and chew up the clock. The last 5 meetings have gone "under" and it hasn't even been close (avg score has been 35.6 despite and avg total of 56.0). With USC having a freshman QB and potentially their worst scoring offense in years, why mess with the trend. Pick: Under 47.5
Auburn at Tennesse (O/U 52)
This total was so shocking, I hate to do a double take. I know Auburn has been real good on offense this year but they haven't played a strong defensive team or played a road game yet. The score in last year's game was 14-12 with essentially the same players. Last year in 8 SEC games Tenn averaged 16.1 ppg while Auburn only managed 11.6 ppg. The Vols didn't show anything against Florida or UCLA (28 total points) to show that they are any better on offense. Unless this turns into a turnover fest, I don't see any way this game gets to 52 points. Pick: Under 52
Season Record: 4-8
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