College Football Poll - Week 4

Upsets and injuries were the theme to Week 4. Four teams in the Top 10 go down and Tim Tebow is taken to the hospital after being knocked out cold on the field in Lexington, KY. How does it all shake out? Here we go.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State (Continue to climb but SOS will catch up with them)
5. Virginia Tech
6. Oklahoma
7. USC (Need to see more consistent offense to elevate them)
8. Ohio State
9. LSU (Wins over UGA & UF next 2 weeks would put them near the top)
10. Cincinnati
11. Iowa (↑15)
12. Penn State (↓7)
13. TCU
14. Oregon (↑9)(Loss at Boise St might be to undefeated team)
15. Houston (↑9)(Might win Big 12 South)
16. Nebraska
17. Oklahoma St
18. Kansas
19. BYU
20. Miami (↓7)
21. CAL (↓17)
22. Ole Miss (↓11)(Guess my concerns were legitimate)
23. Georgia
24. Auburn
25. Michigan

Dropped Out: #17 Florida State, #25 Washington
On the Bubble: Stanford, South Carolina, South Florida, Utah, Missouri, Georgia Tech

NFL Picks

Time to continue my success from last weekend on NFL picks. First 3-0 day here I come...

Jacksonville at Houston (-4)
Houston is coming off a comeback win against the Titans and looks to keep it going against the Jaguars. Jacksonville lost last year 30-17 in Houston. The Jaguars haven't looked good this year. Their pass defense is allowing 294 yards per game and that isn't a good thing when facing a Houston offense with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels. Although the Texans lost at home in Week 1 to the Jets, they still are one of the best home teams in the NFL. Pick: Houston -4

Chicago at Seattle (+2.5)
Two words...Seneca Wallace. Lay the points. Pick: Chicago -2.5

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3.5)
The Steelers have won 5 straight vs the Bengals. While the Bengals have looked better this year, the Steelers have their number. The Steelers have benen struggling to score points this year, but they should be able to hold off the Bengals attack. Pick: Steelers -3.5

Season Record: 3-3

Soothsayer Soup

Coming off a 2-1 week and I am feeling great. The more we see teams, the more informed bets we can make. Here comes my first 3-0 week (wont be my last).

Missouri at Nevada (+7.5)
Missouri beat Nevada last year 69-17 and are off to a decent start this year. Nevada is 0-2 and has been outscored 20-70. Pass defense is not a strength of Nevada (119th in the nation last year) while pass offense is the staple of Missouri's game plan. Look for an aerial attack and a lot of points. While it is a long road trip for Missouri to Reno, the Tigers just have way too many weapons for the Wolfpack to slow down. Pick: Missouri -7.5

Notre Dame at Purdue (+7)
Home dogs are the theme for week 4 in college football. Notre Dame limps into the game after a nail biting win over Michigan State. Notre Dame lost star WR Michael Floyd for the season to a broken collarbone. QB Jimmy Clausen and RB Armando Allen are game-time decisions (Clausen will play, but Allen looks iffy). So why take the Irish on the road? Purdue just doesn't possess the defense (95th in pass defense) or QB play (4 TD, 5 INT) to stay close to the Irish if they don't turn the ball over. This is the same Purdue team that lost last week to Northern Illinois at home. Pick: Notre Dame -7

South Florida at Florida State (-14)
This one looked like an exciting contest until South Florida QB Matt Grothe tore his ACL last week. It is going to be hard for a new QB to make his debut on the road vs the Seminoles. Florida State is coming off an impressive victory at BYU and could let down (see Week 2 vs Jacksonville State). I don't think Bobby Bowden will let that happen again. Look for the Seminoles to wreak havoc all day on South Florida's offense. Pick: Florida State -14

Season: 3-6

Chip Kelly is all Class

Chip Kelly, the new head coach at Oregon, has had a lot to deal with in his first year on the job. The opening game loss at Boise State wasn't that bad in hindsight, but the way they lost was embarrassing. An offensive attack that was talked about as the best on the West Coast was completely shut down. Then the team's star player, LaGarrette Blount, punches an opposing player in the face. When Chip Kelly made the correct call to suspend Blount for the season that took some serious cojones. It showed that he is in charge and everyone around the program had to take notice. He put character and actions ahead of talent and wins. Not many coaches would do that. I was impressed right then and there. But then came the news yesterday that Chip Kelly sent a check for $439 to an Oregon Alum who had sent him an email complaining about the team's performance against Boise. The $439 covered the travel expenses for the individual. How many people on the planet would have made that gesture? Coach Kelly could have and probably should have just ignored the email and gone on with his day. But to take responsibility for what happened on the Smurf Turf in Boise showed an incredible amount of class. It appears that the Oregon Ducks football program is in good hands with Coach Kelly.

College Football Poll (Week 3)

Washington shocks the College Football World with an upset of #3 USC. Will that be enough to get them into my poll? How far does USC fall? Who is my new #2? How far does BYU fall after getting demolished at home by Florida St.? For those of you who care, I am creating my own BCS computer formula. I will publish the results weekly here in a couple of weeks (for the same reason the BCS isnt published until after Week 8...because you need time for the outliers to be brought back to earth). Anyways, here we go.

1. Florida
2. Alabama (Win over Virginia Tech gets them the nod over Texas)
3. Texas
4. CAL
5. Penn State
6. Boise State (↑2) (Are there enough quality wins left to keep them this high?)
7. LSU (↑8) (Win at Washington looking better every week)
8. Oklahoma (↑2) (Destroyed a decent Tulsa team with backup QB, impressive)
9. Virginia Tech (↑2) (Don't completely buy into them, but big win over Nebraska)
10. USC (↓8)
11. Ole Miss (I'm not the only non-believer, 3.5 point underdog this week)
12. Ohio State (↓3) (Have to drop Ohio State with USC's struggles)
13. Miami (↑7) (Huge opportunity with Virginia Tech and Oklahoma up next)
14. Cincinnati
15. TCU
16. Oklahoma State (↓3)
17. Florida State (Looked horrible vs Jacksonville State, but BYU no problem)
18. BYU (↓11)
19. Georgia (showed no defense again, but win on road in SEC worth staying in poll)
20. Nebraksa (↓2)
21. Kansas
22. Michigan
23. Oregon (Big win over Utah, CAL looming next weekend)
24. Houston (Can they get Texas Tech this weekend as well?)
25. Washington (Beat USC so got to give them credit. Jake Locker is a stud)

Dropped Out: #19 Utah, #23 Oregon State, #25 UCLA
On the Bubble: Auburn, North Carolina, Missouri, UCLA, Notre Dame

NFL Picks Week 2

Coming off a winning Saturday in College Football, its time to make some NFL picks to up the bankroll. Not much to like in the lines, but the Over/Unders look enticing.

Oakland at Kansas City (O/U 39)
When the Raiders and Chiefs hook up the games tend to be low scoring. The "under" has hit in 7 of the last 8 matchups with 6 of those under 33 total points. The Raiders love to run the football and that chews up the clock. The Raiders defense looked improved in Week 1 which should only help keep the totals low. Pick: Under 39 Points

Pittsburgh at Chicago (O/U 38)
Neither team figures to run the ball all that well in this matchup. That means they will have to go to the air to get points. With Troy Polamalu and Brian Urlacher out, expect the QBs to take some chances. Pick: Over 38 Points

New York Giants at Dallas (-3)
The Giants figure to pound the ball right at the Cowboys who gave up 174 yards and 5.6 yards per carry against the Buccaneers. The Cowboys offense line should have its hands full with the Giants defensive line. There will be a lot of pressure on the Cowboys with the opening of the new Stadium and we know how they have responded recently to pressure. I think the Giants win the game straight up so why not take the cushion of the points. Pick: Giants +3

Season Record: 1-2

Soothsayer Soup

Last week brought my first win of the season. Even though I am 1-5 I still stand by my picks. You can't win them all and our luck is about to turn around. I think that Vegas is starting to over value home teams and big names. So lets go the other way.

Utah at Oregon (-4.5)
This matchup is between 2 good teams, but they dont appear to be as good as last year. Oregon struggled at home last week and needed 2 defensive TDs to beat Purdue by 2 points. Utah also struggled to put away San Jose State but eventually wound up with a 10 point win. This game will be won at the line of scrimmage and Utah has put up over 233 yards rushing in each of its games this season. Oregon has given up more than 164 yards rushing in each of its games this season. Oregon also statistically has been a terrible time of possesion team. This leads me to believe that Utah will run and possess the ball. This game has FG difference written all over it. I wouldn't be all that suprised if Utah won outright, so why not take the point. Pick: Utah +4.5

Mississippi State at Vanderbilt (-9)
Not sure what it is, but this game just spoke to me. Should Vanderbilt be favored by 9 points over ANY BCS conference team? Mississippi State did beat Vanderbilt 17-14 last season to give the Commodores their first loss of the season. Even tough they went 4-4 in the SEC last year, they didnt win any of those games by 4 points. Although the Bulldogs got beat up pretty bad last week at Auburn, I feel the new coaching staff will have them prepared for one of the truly "winnable" games on their schedule. The Commodores managed only 224 yards of offense last week against an average at best LSU defense. They also gave up 195 yards rushing to LSU and the strength of the Bulldogs is their RBs. Just a gut feeling that this one comes down to the wire. Pick: Mississippi State +9

Cincinnati at Oregon State (+1)
Oregon State opened as a slight favorite in this matchup but the wise guys are all backing Cincinnati. The Beavers secondary is young and inexperienced (0 returning starters in the secondary) and it showed against UNLV. The Bearcats are loaded on offense and have playmakers that can exploit the Beavers weakness. While they only return 1 defensive starter, they looked great at Rutgers 2 weeks ago. The Bearcats beat the Beavers 2 years ago 34-3 in Cincinnati. That pushes me onto their bandwagon. Pick: Cincinnati -1

Season Record: 1-5

Tebow the Jaguar?

I really feel for Jaguars fans right about now. Just 2 years ago the team was headed in the right direction after a playoff win against the Steelers. After that win they gave their QB David Garrard a 6 year, $60 million contract. Now just 17 games later, the team is in turmoil. They lost 17,000 season ticket holders (mostly because of the economy) and now may not have a home game televised in Jacksonville all season. Hard to keep a fan base energized if the games aren't on TV. Wayne Weaver, the teams owner, has a way to re-energize the organization. His solution is to draft local hero Tim Tebow.

"Star power is incredible, and Tebow is an iconic figure. He clearly is an outstanding football player and would be an asset to any football organization." The game is such an important part of this community, and Tebow is such an iconic figure that people would legitimately think, 'Wouldn't it be great if he was a Jaguar. I'd be silly to sit here and think that's not going to be a huge thing. Clearly there's going to be a groundswell for Tebow, and we'll have to make that evaluation if we have a draft pick that's going to be anywhere near him."

Most optimists would give the Jaguars 7 wins which would put them somewhere around 12the in next year's draft. Considering most think Tebow at best is a late first round pick, they will have an opportunity to draft him. The only problem is that he doesn't project to be a NFL type QB (system issues, arm strength, accuracy, etc.) and they will have to pay him a lot of money at that spot. Do they draft Tebow just to sell tickets or do they draft the player that can help the team win? It is an interesting case study in what is more important, winning or selling tickets?

Now that the owner has come public with his love affair for Tim Tebow, how does he pass on him? They HAVE to draft him now or else they might lose whatever fan base they have left. Also, they just gave their QB a $60 million contract! How does it make any financial sense to have that much money tied into the QB position when neither one of them are going to be elite players? It is going to be a rough stretch to be a Jaguar fan.

Did Belichick Outsmart Himself?

When the Patriots traded standout DT Richard Seymour to the Raiders for a 2011 first round pick, I thought to myself "Brilliant!" They turned a 30 year old defensive lineman who will be a free agent at the end of the season into a probable high first round pick. That is a no-brainer and you make that trade almost every time. Of course, after watching the Patriots defense play on Monday Night Football it hit me that Belichick has made a huge mistake. The Patriots have aspirations of winning the Super Bowl this year. Tom Brady is in the prime of his career and you can't waste years of players of his caliber. I'm not saying that this year will be a waste for the Patriots but after watching their defense play it is going to put a lot of pressure on the offense to win games. The pass rush was almost non-existent and to top it off their best player on defense (MLB Jerod Mayo) sustained a knee injury that might keep him out for the season. The defense the way it is currently constructed would make me hesitant to pick them in a playoff game (even more if they don't get home field advantage) over teams like Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Baltimore, etc. that can run the ball and control the clock. The Patriots better win the Super Bowl this year or you can look to this trade as a major reason why they didn't.

Now, if they NFL Bargaining Agreement is changed before 2011 and a rookie wage scale is put in place, then the trade is Brilliant again!

College Football Poll (Week 2)

Big wins for USC and Michigan. Bad losses by Oklahoma State and . Lets see where they fall in my College Football Poll this week (teams that made big moves up or down in parenthesis).

1. Florida
2. USC
3. Alabama
4. Texas
5. CAL
6. Penn State
7. BYU
8. Boise State (↑2)
9. Ohio State (No change for hanging with the #2 team)
10. Oklahoma
11. Ole Miss
12. Virginia Tech
13. Oklahoma State (↓8)
14. TCU (↑2) (Defense looks as good as last year)
15. LSU
16. Cincinnati (Can make a move next week with a win at Oregon State)
17. Georgia Tech (↑4)
18. Nebraska (↑7) (Beat cupcakes soundly as they should have)
19. Utah
20. Miami (↓2)(probably unfair, but after FSU's effort I'm re-evaluating Miami)
21. Georgia (Going to have to show some defense to stay in poll next week)
22. Kansas
23. Oregon State (Escaped vs UNLV last week, need big effort this week)
24. Houston (Have to be fair, beat #5 on the road you get in my Top 25)
25. UCLA (Win on the road vs SEC you get in my Top 25)

Dropped Out: #19 Oregon, #23 Notre Dame, #24 Missouri

NFL Picks

As the great Jerry Glanville said "The NFL stands for Not For Long" which is how long you will continue to read my picks if I don't pick some winners. Its time for me to earn some of your money back lost in Week 1 of the college season. Here we go with my NFL picks for the weekend.

Buffalo at New England (-11)
The return of Tom Brady hopefully is being underestimated by the line makers. I know teams last year didnt fare well when having to cover a spread of 10+ points, the Pats should resemble the 2007 version more than the 2008 version (won 11 games by 17+ points). In 2007, they beat the Bills by 46 and 31. Hmmm....Are the oddsmakers trying to trap us? Well when factoring in that the Bills fired their offensive coordinator last week it seems like they are in utter chaos before the season has even started. Factor in three of the Bills' starting offensive linemen have never taken an NFL snap before. Not a good thing when on the road vs a Bill Belicheck defense. Pick: NE -11

Minnesota at Cleveland (+4)
On the surface this seems like Vegas is begging us to take the Vikings. While that usually ends in a loss, I just cant walk away from this one. Cleveland waited until Tuesday to pick a starting QB and that is never a good sign this late into the preseason. The Browns finished 28th in the NFL in rushing defense last year allowing 152 ypg. That is never a good sign when going up against the beast that is Adrian Peterson (Vikes were 5th in the league in rushing offense). History would indicate that Cleveland shouldn't be able to stop the run and that gives them no chance to win this game. Pick: Minnesota -4

New York Jets at Houston (-4.5)
Everyone knows the Jets are breaking in a rookie QB this weekend. I am not sure everyone knows that the Jets will be without pass rushers Shaun Ellis and Calvin Pace and that the Texans are 12-4 at home the last 2 years (which is the 2nd best record in the NFL during that span). The Jets will have to get pressure on Matt Schaub or Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels will wreak havoc on the Jets defense. Without the best pass rushers I don't see that happening. I see Houston taking an early lead and forcing the Jets to get away from their game plan which is to run and take pressure of Sanchez. Pick: Houston -4.5

Season Record: 0-0

Soothsayer Soup

Well last week didnt go as planned, but we have many more months to make up for that. I made the rookie mistake of picking games on TV that would interest people rather than going for gut feel (see South Carolina and Stanford covering). Time to get back on track. Anyways, here are this week's college lines I like (tomorrow I will do 3 NFL games):

Kansas at UTEP (+12.5)
UTEP lost at home last week to Buffalo 23-17 and Kansas is no Buffalo. UTEP gave up 37.0 ppg last year, finished 115th in total defense, 104th in rushing defense and 112th in passing defense. Kansas finished 8th in the county in passing offense and I expect Kansas to win by at least 2 TDs with starting WR Dezmon Briscoe returning from suspension. While Kansas hasn't won a non-conference road game since 2003, this game should end that streak. Pick: Kansas -12.5

Oregon State at UNLV (+7)
The Beavers continue to get no respect. Remember this is a team that has beaten USC twice in the last 3 years and won 6 bowl games this decade. UNLV gave up 32.6 ppg last year, finished 103th in total defense and 110th in rushing defense. Sounds like
Jacquizz Rogers will have a field day vs the Rebels. If he doesn't I still expect the Beavers defense (23rd in total defense in 2008) to slow down the Rebels. My only concern is a young secondary for the Beavers against a decent passing game for the Rebels. Pick: Oregon State -7

Notre Dame at Michigan (+3.5)
Notre Dame beat Michigan 35-17 last year in South Bend. Their passing game predictabily looked outstanding last week (Nevada finished 119th in passing defense in 2008). Michigan showed signs of life at QB last week with 2 true freshman leading them to victory against Western Michigan. Notre Dame returns 9 starters on offense (all 5 OL are seniors) and should be able to outscore Michigan. Michigan finished 87th in the country in pass defense last year and gave up 263 yards last week. Not good when facing a passing team. If Notre Dame's defense shows up this won't even be close. Pick: Notre Dame -3.5

Season Record: 0-3

NFL Predictions

It is FINALLY footbal season and men around world couldn't be happier. Today should really be a national holiday. For all the fans, gamblers, fantasy football players, etc. tonight might bring tears to a couple of eyes. Football is back BABY! Time for my NFL predictions.

AFC
1. Patriots 14-2
2. Steelers 13-3
3. Chargers 12-4
4. Colts 11-5
5. Ravens 11-5
6. Texans 11-5

Wild Card Round
Chargers over Texans
Ravens over Colts
Divisional Round
Patroits over Ravens
Steelers over Chargers
Championship Game
Patroits over Steelers

NFC
1. Giants 12-4
2. Vikings 11-5
3. Cardinals 10-6
4. Saints 10-6
5. Packers 11-5
6. Eagles 11-5

Wild Card Round
Eagles over Cardinals
Packers over Saints
Divisional Round
Giants over Eagles
Packers over Vikings
Championship Game
Giants over Packers

Super Bowl
Patroits over Giants

MVP - Tom Brady
DPOY - Mario Williams
OROY - Knowshon Moreno
DROY - Aaron Curry

Top 5 Picks in 2010 NFL Draft
1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. St. Louis
4. Tampa Bay
5. Kansas City

Cant wait to hear where I went wrong. Let me have it!

If I had a vote....

Week one of college football is in the books and it is time to see what the voters thought. I have decided to post my vote (if I had one) for the Top 25. I will not be a victim of the first poll like so many voters will. I personally feel that there shouldn't be any rankings until Week 5. For example, if there was no preseason poll then BYU would be ranked ahead of Oklahoma this week. But since Oklahoma started at 3 and BYU at 20, then Oklahoma will probably still be ranked ahead of BYU today even though they just beat them. I also will not be afraid to move teams up and down based on performance and not on wins. For example, Oregon doesn't fall out of the rankings based on a loss at Boise State, but Iowa gets killed in my poll for beating 1AA Northern Iowa at home by 1 point. Don't worry if your team is a little low, every week they have an opportunity to move up. Time to pull the curtain back and unveil my vote.

1. Florida
2. USC
3. Alabama
4. Texas (gave up 20 points to LA-Monroe moves them down)
5. Oklahoma St
6. CAL
7. Penn St
8. BYU (big win skyrockets them up, but going to be hard to stay this high)
9. Ohio St
10. Boise St
11. Oklahoma
12. Ole Miss
13. Virginia Tech
14. LSU (struggled vs 0-12 Washington)
15. Cincinnati (defending Big East Champs destroyed Rutgers)
16. TCU
17. Utah
18. Miami (if offense plays this well, ACC crown could be in future)
19. Oregon (looked bad, but give them credit for playing at Boise St)
20. Oregon St
21. Georgia Tech
22. Georgia
23. Notre Dame
24. Missouri
25. Nebraska

There you go. These rankings will be very fluid from week to week. I cant wait to see where you disagree.

Kendry Morales needs some love

Being an Angels fan living in NYC, I get to see the East Coast media dynamic up close. Last off-season the Angels made the choice to let Mark Teixeira go and replace him with Kendry Morales. Teixeira signed for 8 years and $180 million with the Yankees and immediately became a star. He got this offer despite only playing in one All-Star Game (2005) in his 6 year major league career. Why do I bring this up? Well, while Teixeira is the next coming of Mickey Mantle in NY, his replacement in Anaheim is quitely having a better year. You would never know it though because the media doesn't mention it. Teixeira could very well end up winning the AL MVP but Morales has been just as valuable if not more valuable to his team. Here are the numbers (thru Sept. 6th):

Mark Teixeira: 132 games, .279/.378/.538/.917, 36 Doubles, 33 HR, 102 RBI, 86 Runs.
Kendy Morales: 127 games, .312/.357/.588/.945, 38 Doubles, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 73 Runs.

While the raw numbers may favor Teixeira, he is playing in a ballpark that is more condusive to offense. Factor in that the Yankees have been relatively healthy and the Angels ravaged with injuries and the case can be made that Morales has been more valuable to his team. Not to mention he is costing the Angels $19,400,000 less than what the Yankees are paying Teixeira this year. Although no one outside of California knows who you are, I am saying you SHOULD be 2nd in the AL MVP voting this year (Joe Mauer is my hands down favorite). Come on media, show Kendry some love!

Blount should be Suspended for 2009

I stayed up all night watching the Oregon vs Boise State football game. What a great thing for fans of this sport to get to watch 2 programs put a lot on the line right out of the gate. Boise State ended up winning 19-8 in a game that didn't resememble any of the offensive fireworks that were expected. As a PAC-10 fan, I wasn't nearly as embarrased by the final score (afterall Boise State is 65-2 at home since 1999) as I was with the actions of Oregon running back LaGarrette Blount after the game. Last year Boise State was accused of some cheap shots during their win in Eugene. Prior to this year's game, Blount stated "We owe that team an as-whuppin". Tensions were high and emotions on edge prior to the game. After the game was over, a couple Boise State players had some things to say to Blount. Blount showing the immaturity that caused him to be suspended from the team in February for "failure to fulfill team obligations", responded by punching a Bronco in the face. It was a despicable act that should get him suspended for the rest of the year. It was absolutely uncalled for and under no circumstances excusable. Then as he was walking off the field hearing taunts from the fans had to be retrained by assistant coaches. The kid really crossed the line and shouldn't be allowed to play college football anymore. He also cost himself a lot of money as he was projected to be a first-round prospect in next year's NFL Draft. Teams are valueing character more these days and I am sure no GM wants to invest a lot of money into someone who acted like Blount did last night. Do the right thing Oregon and tell this kid that he no longer gets the honor of wearing a college football uniform. He would be lucky to get off that easy as assault charges could be a possibility. Classless and embarrassing.

Soothsayer Soup

Who likes money? I know I do. I will be doing a weekly post on Thursdays where I will pick 3 college football games vs the spread (I will use Caesar Palace's lines). So in honor of our green friend, I have waded through the point spreads and found this week's games that we can exploit together. Without further ado, I look into my famous bowl of "Soothsayer Soup" to make everyone money.

Oregon at Boise State (-3)
Boise State is 64-2 at home the last 10 years, but Oregon is the 1st ranked opponent and only the 3rd BCS conference team to visit the "Smurf Turf". The Broncos won last year in Eugene 37-32. All signs point to another Bronco victory. I don't see it that way. The Ducks are still smarting from that loss and have openly talked about the cheap shots that Boise State took on some of its players during the game. While Boise State did win that game, it came during Week 4 of the season. Boise State wont sneak up on Oregon this year. Boise State is 3-11 vs PAC-10 teams all-time. Oregon has a bad taste in its mouth and had all off-season to think about this game. When the more talented team is focused and eager to exact revenge, it is tough to pick against them (see the point spread line dropping from 6 to 3 this week). I am chasing the smart money. Pick: Oregon +3

BYU at Oklahoma (-22.5)
Oklahoma returns last years Heisman trophy winning QB to an offense that should keep piling up the yards and points. BYU has some solid returning skill players, but their offensive line is in shambles (lost 4 starters to graduation and injuries are hurting the depth to start the season). That's not a good thing when facing what is arguably the most talented DL in the country. BYU was 1-5 ATS last year away from Provo. The spread is a little high, but as Oklahoma showed last year they aren't afraid to pile on points late (scored 58+ points in final 6 games last year). Pick: Oklahoma -22.5

LSU at Washington +17.5
The opening of the Steve Sarkisian era for the Huskies starts with a home date with the LSU Tigers. The key to this game will be QB play. LSU struggled at times last year with QB play until settling on Jordan Jefferson late in the year. UW was dealt a serious blow when Jake Locker was lost for the season during he 3rd game of the year. While that was the main reason they went 0-12, it still showed the lack of talent on the team. LSU #9 might be ranked a little high for my taste right now, but they are obviously more talented than the Huskies. LSU is hungry to show that last years dissapointing 7-5 season was a fluke (they destroyed Georgia Tech 38-3 in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl). Vegas might by regretting setting the line so low initially (opened at 14) because the smart money is chasing the Tigers. The #9 ranked team on the road vs a team that has lost 14 straight games seems too good to be true. Vegas may be trying to reel us in with this line, but I am going to take it anyway. Pick: LSU -17.5

Season Record: 0-0

MLB Playoff Predictions Review

Yesterday we looked at my predictions for the MLB awards and saw how terrible I did predicting those. Today we look at my Playoff Predictions from early April. Here is what I predicted back then:

AL Playoff teams: Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, and Yankees (WC)
ALDS - Red Sox over Angels, Yankees over White Sox
ALCS - Red Sox over Yankees
NL Playoff teams: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, and Phillies (WC)
NLDS - Mets over Dodgers, Cubs over Phillies
NLCS - Mets over Cubs
World Series - Red Sox over Mets

While not as bad as my award predictions, still pretty awful. Most of the experts would put the Yankees as the clear front runner to win the World Series based off their power numbers right now. I decided to see how important power is to winning the World Series. I went back through every season to 1995 and noticed that only 1 team had won the World Series while finishing in the Top 4 in HRs (2008 Phillies were 2nd with 214 HRs). I then looked at the avg stats of the last 14 champions to see if any trends developed to help me predict the rest of this season. Here are the average stats for the last 14 champs:

Age 29.8, 4.79 runs per game, .272 avg, .346 obp, .436 slg, .782 ops, 4.03 era, 113 era+, 1.326 whip (era+ is adjusted to account for the home team's park. I choose whip as an important stat because it shows us which teams do the best job at keeping teams off base)

I then choose the top 6 teams in each division and narrowed them down from there (AL - NYY, BOS, TB, LAA, TEX, DET...NL - PHI, ATL, STL, LAD, COL, SF). Then I looked at the stats to see if any outliers existing that would eliminate any of the above teams.

In the NL, Philadelphia came the closest to being the team that stands out. Their overall era is 4.12 and whip is 1.345, but in the 2nd half they have has been a stellar 3.14 and 1.207 respectively. I eliminated the other 5 teams for the following reasons: SF (Offense - 27th runs per game, 29th HRs, 30th in OBP and OPS), COL (Age - 2 years younger than the last 14 champs), ATL (below avg in all offense categories), LAD (young pitching, lack of power, obp worse than last 11 champs), STL (below avg in all 5 offensive categories even with Pujols). So factoring all that in, the Phillies are the least flawed team in the NL and thus will go to the World Series.

In the AL, the Yankees came the closest to being the team that stands out. Besides being 1st in every offense category except average, their pitching is getting better. Their overall era is 4.35, but in the 2nd half it is a below avg 3.93 (not bad considering the launching pad they play in). I eliminated the other 5 teams for the following reasons: LAA (era 4.79), BOS (4.69 era in 2nd half), DET (young pitching, more than 3 years younger than last 14 WS Champs and below average in all categories), TEX (.321 obp worse than any last 14 WS Champs), TB (youth and 6 games behind BOS for WC). So factoring all that in the Yankees are the least flawed team in the AL and thus will go to the World Series.

Here is how I see it today:

AL Playoff teams: Yankees, Angels, Tigers, and Red Sox(WC)
ALDS - Red Sox over Angels, Yankees over Tigers
ALCS - Yankees over Red Sox
NL Playoff teams: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies (WC)
NLDS - Phillies over Rockies, Cardinals over Dodgers
NLCS - Phillies over Cardinals
World Series - Phillies over Yankees

The Phillies will win the World Series again on the strength of pitching. It will be an exciting long series but he Phillies LHP (Lee, Hamels, and Happ) should help neutralize the Cano, Matsui, Damon, and Teixiera (less power RH, certainly in Yankee Stadium). If the Yankees can get through Boston and have Sabathia for 3 games it could swing the series, but I see see the Phillies coming through in the end.

MLB Awards Review

Now that the calendar has turned to September I wanted to look back and see how my MLB Award Predicitions are going. One of the best thing about blogging is that there is a record of what you thought. Lets see how smart I was (sarcastic) back in April:

MVP -Manny Ramirez (NL), Grady Sizemore (AL)
Cy Young -Johan Santana (NL), Jon Lester (AL)
Manager of the Year - Jerry Manuel (NL), Ron Gardenhire (AL)
Rookie of the Year - Cameron Maybin (NL), David Price (AL)

Obviously my picks leave a lot to be desired. Right now, I dont see any of my 8 picks being correct. So, lets change them. Here is what I think now.

NL MVP - Albert Pujols: .320 avg (5th), .443 obp (1st), .669 slg (1st), 1.112 ops (1st), 102 runs (1st), 41 HRs (1st), 110 RBIs (3rd), 98 walks (3rd). If anyone doesn't vote him first, they should lose the ability to vote forever. This one is a slam dunk.
Runner-Up: No one.

AL MVP - Joe Mauer: .368 avg (1st), .436 obp (1st), .615 slg (1st), 1.051 ops (1st). That alone should win him the MVP. When you factor in his 26 HRs and 80 RBIs and the fact that he is a catcher, this one should also be a slam dunk. Just think what his numbers would have been had he not missed April with a back injury.
Runner-Up: Mark Teixeira.

NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum: 13-4 (t4 wins), 2.33 ERA (2nd), 222 K's (1st), 4 CG's (t1st), 2 Shutouts (t1st), 1.03 Whip (3rd), .208 BAA (2nd). There a lot of contenders, but Lincecum is the reigning winner and no one has taken it from him. This one comes down to who pitches the best in September.
Runner-Up: Chris Carpenter, Dan Haren, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain...

AL Cy Young - Zack Greinke: 13-8 (t5th in wins), 2.32 ERA (1st), 202 K's (2nd), 6 CG's (1st), 3 Shutouts (1st), 1.08 Whip (1st), .233 BAA (1st). While this one should be easy, it will be hard for some to vote a pitcher on the worst team in the AL as the Cy Young. Doesn't matter to me as he has been by far the best pitcher in the AL this season.
Runner-Up: Justin Verlander.

NL Manager of the Year - Tony LaRussa. The Cardinals are just 1 game off the pace for the best record in the NL. All the experts had the Cubs running away with the NL Central but the Cardinals have the biggest lead (10.5 games) of any team in the Majors.
Runner-Up: Jim Tracy.

AL Manager of the Year - Mike Scioscia. The Angels have the 2nd best record in the Majors despite injuries to starting pitchers John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Kelvim Escobar and the death of Nick Adenhart (13 different pitchers have started a game this year). Now mix in the free agent defections of Mark Teixiera, Francisco Rodriguez, and John Garland and it is amazing that they are where they are.
Runner-Up: Ron Washington.

NL Rookie of the Year - JA Happ. 10-3, 2.63 ERA (5th in NL), .226 BAA (6th in NL). Happ has been the best pitcher on the defending World Series Champs. That has gotten him a lot of attention and thanks to being in the majors all year, he edges out the competition.
Runner-Up: Tommy Hanson.

AL Rookie of the Year - Andrew Bailey. Who? Exactly. Not many have noticed the Oakland Closer but check out these numbers. 6-3 with 21 saves, 1.88 ERA, 72 IP, 44 hits, 76 K's (leads all AL relievers), 0.92 Whip, and a .173 BAA. The only question will be, has anyone noticed him outside of the Bay Area.
Runner-Up: Jeff Niemann.

There you go. Now lets see how I did a month from now.