It's championship week and the last shot to pick some winners prior to the bowl season. Point differentials can say a lot about a team's performance. While they can be run up a tad versus weaker opponents, they tend to regress to the mean this late in the season. Looking at some lines this week, I can see where some PD's (I only use Division I scores) might not match what the lines say.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-1)
PD - Cin +16.1, Pitt +12.4. Cincinnati's 28-21 win last year over Pitt snapped a three game losing streak in the series for the Bearcats. The Bearcats have played well on the road and the chance to go 12-0 will keep them focused. Pick: Cincinnati (+1)

Arizona at USC (-7.5)
PD - USC +7.2, AZ +5.7. Arizona seems to match up very well versus USC. I may be simplifying this too much, but USC the last 2 years have beaten Arizona by 7 points. USC is worse this year than the last 2 years. Arizona is better this year than the last 2 years. Statistically Arizona has the better offense and better defense (by yardage). USC is hard to beat in the Coliseum and Arizona isn't a particularly good road team. I think USC wins, but it wont be by 8 points. Pick: AZ +7.5

Houston vs East Carolina (+1)
PD - Hou +14.1, ECU +5.7. Houston beat ECU last year 41-24. This game seems to pit strength vs weakness. Houston should be able to pass at will against ECU. ECU should be able to run at will against Houston. Houston's QB is better than ECU's RB so I will take the Cougars. Pick: Houston -1

Season: 19-20

The Holmes Computer Rankings

No upsets on the field last week, but Florida has finally passed TCU for the #2 spot in the rankings. With TCU done playing, they can't pass Florida, but should Alabama win, they may sneak into the #2 spot in the final rankings. Also, nice to see four PAC-10 teams in the Top 25.

1. Texas - 59.131
2. Florida - 56.956
3. TCU - 56.775
4. Alabama - 54.929
5. Boise State - 53.994
6. Oregon - 49.661
7. Ohio State - 49.021
8. Cincinnati - 47.933
9. BYU - 46.560
10. Virginia Tech - 46.463
11. Penn State - 44.958
12. Georgia Tech - 44.870
13. Houston - 44.798
14. Nebraska - 44.184
15. Iowa - 43.264
16. Utah - 43.143
17. LSU - 42.989
18. USC - 42.353
19. Miami - 42.205
20. Oregon State - 40.903
21. Central Michigan - 40.355
22. Stanford - 40.185
23. Oklahoma - 40.046
24. Pittsburgh - 40.017
25. Oklahoma St. - 39.793

These rankings should also show the MWC conference should get an automatic bid. They have 3 of the top 16 teams and are just as good as the ACC or Big East. The money grubbing power conferences should step aside and let them play with the big boys every year.

College Football Picks - Week 13

Finally, I am back to .500 and I can't wait for bowl season. This is an interesting week in the SEC where some road favorites look to hold on. Let's see who I like.

Ole Miss at Mississippi State (+7)
Last year Ole Miss beat MSU 45-0. MSU is being out gained and outscored on the season. Ole Miss is coming off a big win vs LSU and should be able to carry over the momentum into the Egg Bowl. Look for Ole Miss to exploit MSU's weak pass defense (7.9 YPA) on their way to a route. Pick: Ole Miss -7

Tennessee at Kentucky (+3)
Tennessee has beaten Kentucky the last 4 years. Tennessee hasn't won a road game this year which scares me, but they have the better players and coach. Monte Kiffin will have a few tricks up his sleeve that will confuse Kentucky's backup QB. Expect the Vols to pound the ball on the ground to exploit the Wildcats poor run defense (4.6 ypc). Pick: Tennessee -3

Alabama at Auburn (+10)
Alabama beat Auburn 36-0 last year. While Auburn's offense has been better this year, their defense has gotten worse. Auburn is giving up 177 ypg and 4.5 ypc which spells trouble when Mark Ingram and the Crimson Tide come to town. Alabama will make Auburn one-dimensional on offense and cruise to victory. Pick: Alabama -10

Season: 18-18

Alabama and Florida

Florida, Alabama, and Texas all control their own destiny on their way to the BCS Championship Game. Florida and Alabama cruised to victories this past weekend vs Florida International (ranked 99/120 in my computer system) and 1AA Chattanooga. This should be unacceptable. I wish the voters would have grown a pair and done something about the SEC playing creampuffs in November. The voters SHOULD have voted Texas number 1 this week to send a message that we will not stand for this. It wouldn't matter in the long run anyways, as an undefeated SEC champion would still finish in the Top 2. This would have been an act to show that in the future we expect teams to play competitive games in November and at least keep the facade of "every game counts" alive.

The Holmes Computer Rankings

This past weekend of college football brought us some exciting match ups like Florida vs Florida International and Alabama vs Chattanooga. It is a disgrace that elite powers are playing such inferior competition in November. You know what makes me smile....my computer agrees with me. Florida and Alabama fall out of the Top 2 spots. Lets see what my computer thinks.

1. Texas - 56.187
2. TCU - 53.182
3. Florida - 52.943
4. Alabama - 52.833
5. Boise State - 50.629
6. Ohio State - 48.511
7. Oregon - 48.282
8. Georgia Tech - 45.020
9. Cincinnati - 44.652
10. Penn State - 44.409
11. BYU - 43.283
12. Iowa - 42.743
13. Utah - 41.699
14. Virginia Tech - 41.430
15. Pittsburgh - 40.847
16. Nebraska - 40.435
17. Oklahoma St. - 39.782
18. Nevada - 39.451
19. Oregon State - 39.401
20. LSU - 39.321
21. USC - 39.224
22. Houston - 38.962
23. Wisconsin - 37.966
24. Stanford - 37.834
25. Clemson - 37.799

It's important to keep in mind that my system is an aggregate of points so now that the Big Ten is basically done with their season, those teams will slowly drop into place over the next two weeks. The SEC winner will still finish ahead of TCU if they are undefeated most likely. Also, the Mountain West Conference is cleaning up with 3 of the top 13 teams. I guess it may be time to re-visit their automatic bid application.

College Football Picks - Week 12

It feels so good when what you expect to happen actually does. A 3-0 week can do wonders on a psyche. The main lesson last week was, in order to beat Vegas you have to think like Vegas. Don't let them trick you into a line that seems to good to be true. With that in mind we look to get into the black this week.

Rutgers at Syracuse (+8)
Rutgers is coming off 31-0 thrashing of South Florida. Syracuse is 0-5 in the Big East and has only stayed within 8 points of a dreadful Louisville team. Rutgers has won the last 4 meetings in this series by scores of 18, 24, 31 and 22. While the Rutgers pass defense isn't great, the turnover margins (Rutgers +12, Syracuse -9) should allow Rutgers to pull away. Pick: Rutgers -8

Stanford at CAL (O/U 63.5)
This total seems a little high and is no doubt influenced by the Stanford totals (93 and 76) the last 2 weeks. The Under in PAC-10 play is 2-5 for CAL and 3-4 for Stanford. The last 4 meetings between these two teams has produced totals of 53, 33, 43, and 30. Throw in the fact that both teams love to run the football (they average 78 rushing attempts per game combined) and the clock becomes our friend. Pick: Under 63.5

Oklahoma at Texas Tech (O/U 53)
This line reflects that the books are getting killed by the "Under" when the Sooners play. Last week was the first week all season the "Over" cashed in for Oklahoma. The last 3 totals in games between these two teams have been 86, 61, and 58. Both teams love to throw the ball and that leads to more possessions and more points. I think the fact that this game is in Lubbock helps push the line up. Pick: Over 53

Season: 16-17

LSU vs Oregon

The BCS standings reveal all that is wrong with College Football. Most people look to see who the Top 2 teams are but you can get a better idea of how teams can get to the top by looking deeper into standings. A perfect example of what I am talking about is LSU being ranked ahead of Oregon. I personally (and my computer system agrees) think that Oregon's body of work is much better than LSU's. The Harris Poll, Coach's Poll, and the BCS disagree. Time for a tale of the tape.

LSU
Record: 8-2 overall, 4-2 SEC
Ranks: 8 BCS, 10 Harris, 10 Coaches
Oregon
Record: 8-2 overall, 6-1 PAC-10
Ranks: 11 BCS, 11 Harris, 11 Coaches

Just looking at these numbers and it doesn't seem to be much of a travesty that LSU is ranked higher. Lets dig a little deeper.

Losses
LSU: #1 Florida (13-3), at #2 Alabama (24-15)
Oregon: at #6 Boise State (19-8), at #17 Stanford (51-42)
Advantage: LSU even with a home loss
This has to be the only argument someone can make to have LSU higher, but it is a weak argument as I will show.

Wins vs Teams with Winning Records
LSU: at Georgia (6-4), Auburn (7-4)
Oregon: #21 Utah (8-2), #18 USC (7-3), #25 CAL (7-3)
Advantage: Oregon
LSU hasn't beaten a team that is currently ranked in the Top 25 of the BCS, Harris, or Coaches Poll while Oregon has beaten 3.

Common Opponent - Washington (both teams played in Seattle)
LSU 31-23 win, Oregon 43-19
Advantage: Oregon

Opponents Records
LSU: 53-49 overall, 45-49 vs DI
Oregon: 56-45 overall, 53-45 vs DI
Advantage: Oregon
The 8 teams that LSU have beaten have a combined record of 33-49, 26-49 vs DI while the 8 teams that Oregon have beaten are of 39-42, 37-42 vs DI.

Point Differential
LSU: 25.0 ppg, 13.7 ppg allowed (+11.3)
Oregon: 37.1 ppg, 20.9 allowed (+16.2)
Advantage: Oregon

Yardage Differential
LSU: 314.7 ypg, 313.7 ypg allowed (+1)
Oregon: 414.6 ypg, 310.1 ypg allowed (+104.5)
Advantage: Oregon
Am I really susposed to believe that LSU is the 8th best team in the country when they outgain their opponents by 1 yard a game. Really?

The numbers never lie as Oregon cruises to a 5-1 victory. Clearly, Oregon has done more on the field this year than LSU. The Ducks have played the tougher schedule, beaten more quality opponents, and have a much greater point and yardage differentials. So what is the conclusion to draw here on the way the BCS works. The only conclusion to make is that College Football is about who you lose to rather than who you beat. It's not like Oregon has lost to chumps either. It is a shame that the voters and computers reward teams for playing weaker competition. I can only dream of the day when a playoff system will make all of this moot.

The Holmes Computer Rankings

The top teams are still undefeated, but my data doesn't agree with the real BCS. My computers continue to think that Florida isn't one of the top 3 teams in the country. Florida has only beaten 1 ranked team all year and is struggling to separate from mid-level SEC teams. Meanwhile, TCU continues to clobber the opposition. I know the MWC isn't the SEC, but they both leagues have 3 ranked teams and TCU has beaten 3 ranked teams that are currently ranked (Clemson, Utah, and BYU). Lets see how the Top 25 stacks up...

1. Texas - 51.521
2. Alabama - 51.260
3. TCU - 49.316
4. Florida - 48.564
5. Boise State - 46.800
6. Ohio State - 44.918
7. Oregon - 44.192
8. Georgia Tech - 43.579
9. Cincinnati - 43.234
10. LSU - 39.907
11. Pittsburgh - 39.457
12. Iowa - 39.213
13. BYU - 38.770
14. Penn State - 38.379
15. Wisconsin - 37.742
16. USC - 37.635
17. Stanford - 37.467
18. Utah - 37.186
19. Nebraska - 36.908
20. Virginia Tech - 36.842
21. Oklahoma - 36.516
22. Oklahoma St. - 35.152
23. Oregon State - 34.849
24. Clemson - 34.442
25. Nevada - 33.919

559, 345, 313, 484, 312, 517, and 461. What are the significance of those numbers? Those are Nevada's rushing totals during their current 7 game win streak. Boise State better watch out for the Wolfpack as The Holmes Computer Rankings slips them in at #25.

College Football Picks - Week 11

It has been a rough year so far, but it could turn around at any point. I have to start thinking like Vegas in order to beat Vegas. If a line seems too low, then I have to wonder why. With that in mind, lets look to make some picks.

Stanford at USC (-10.5)
USC has won 47 of their last 48 home games so coming home will be nice but the lone loss was against Stanford in 2007. Stanford is hitting on all cylinders right now offensively averaging 210 yards rushing and 234 yards passing per game. The USC defense has given up an average of 30 points and 451 yards over the last 4 games. Factor in that USC could be without WR Damian Williams and TE Anthony McCoy and this has close game written all over it. Pick: Stanford +10.5

Alabama at Mississippi State (+12)
Mississippi State has started to play better football year, but they dont have enough offense to compete with Alabama. The Bulldogs hung in with Florida, but it took 2 defensive tds to stay within 10 points. That isn't likely to happen again. The Bulldogs defense isnt good enough to stop the Crimson Tide running attack. This game won't even be close. Pick: Alabama -12

Indiana at Penn State (-26)
Penn State is 1-3 ATS in home games coming off a loss to Ohio State. Indiana has played much better than their 4-6 record. They stayed within 26 points in their losses to Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The Hoosiers have covered the last 2 meetings vs Penn State and are 6-3 ATS this year. Pick: Indiana +26

Season: 13-17

NL Gold Glove Winners

Just like in the AL, the voters have no idea what a Gold Glove is about in the NL. Once again I will use UZR (ultimate zone rating) to find out which players that won actually deserved the award and who got robbed. Lets look at the winners and who should have won (bolded players are the correct decisions).

P - Adam Wainwright
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Adrian Gonzalez (3.8)
2B - Orlando Hudson (-3.3). Robbed: Chase Utley (10.8)
SS - Jimmy Rollins (2.7). Robbed: Rafael Furcal (8.0)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman (18.1)
OF - Shane Victorino (-4.1). Robbed: Nyjer Morgan (27.8)
OF - Matt Kemp (2.6). Robbed: Randy Winn (16.5)
OF - Michael Bourn (8.6). Robbed: Mike Cameron (10.0)

I have to give the voters some credit as there are some first time winners. It seems like the voters get too enamored with errors totals and are lazy. A player can't make an error if he doesn't get to a ball. Its a shame to see that Nyjer Morgan, the best defensive player in the NL this year, didn't win a Gold Glove. Hopefully, as the years go by and voters get more acclimated to defensive stats other than errors, the rightful winners will be chosen.

AL Gold Glove Winners

Another year of Gold Glove winners, another year of stupid decisions. I never understood the phenomenon of giving a Gold Glove award to a guy known for hitting. A Gold Glove is supposed to go to the best defensive player at his position in each league. There are players in the league specifically because of their defensive value but they are never rewarded. Now that we have stats that tell us more about defensive that errors, we can see if each winner was the person who actually deserved the award. I will use UZR (ultimate zone rating) which is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined (a score of 0.0 is MLB average). Lets look at the winners and who should have won (bolded players are the correct decisions).

P - Mark Buerhle
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Mark Teixeira (-3.7). Robbed: Kendry Morales (4.9)
2B - Placido Polanco (11.4)
SS - Derek Jeter (6.6). Robbed: Elvis Andrus (10.7)
3B - Evan Longoria (18.5)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (10.5). Robbed: Franklin Gutierrez (29.1)
OF - Torii Hunter (-1.4). Robbed: Ryan Sweeney (24.0)
OF - Adam Jones (-4.7). Robbed: Carl Crawford (17.6)

There is no data for pitchers and catchers and winners would be in line with what I thought just from watching games. As for the other winners, it is obvious the voters look at history and hitting and not for what the award is supposed to be about. Franklin Gutierrez was by far the best defensive player in the Major Leagues and the fact that he didn't win was an absolute travesty. Also, living in NY you would have thought Teixeira was the best 1B ever but according to these stats, he isn't even average. I wonder if his "greatness" was because of how bad the previous 1B (Giambi) was on defense? Oh well, tomorrow I can take apart the NL winners.

The Holmes Computer Rankings

Another week of games allows more data for my computer to find the REAL top 2 teams this year for the BCS Championship Game. How far does Iowa fall? Are Alabama and Texas still the top 2? Lets see the new Top 25...

1. Texas - 47.427
2. Alabama - 47.151
3. TCU - 45.255
4. Boise State - 44.345
5. Florida - 44.233
6. Ohio State - 42.254
7. Cincinnati - 40.935
8. Oregon - 40.312
9. Utah - 37.569
10. Georgia Tech - 37.520
11. Iowa - 37.477
12. USC - 37.032
13. BYU - 36.681
14. LSU - 36.076
15. Penn State - 35.714
16. Pittsburgh - 35.158
17. Houston - 33.965
18. Wisconsin - 33.526
19. Virginia Tech - 32.832
20. Arizona - 32.601
21. Notre Dame - 32.419
22. Miami - 32.319
23. Oklahoma St. - 32.229
24. Nebraska - 32.064
25. Stanford - 32.004

The shocker is TCU jumping ahead of Florida. The SEC East is killing Florida's strength of schedule. Time will tell if Florida can run the table, but my computer doesn't think they are one of the best 2 teams in the country this year. The PAC-10 and Big Ten lead the way with 4 teams in the Top 25. The argument that the MWC isn't as good as the AQ schools is losing credibility by the second as 3 teams are in the Top 13.

College Football Picks - Week 10

Arguably the worst BCS division is the Big 12 North. Every team already has 3 losses and none of the teams are ranked. They are just 2-8 vs ranked opponents. More troubling, is that they are just 3-10 vs the Big 12 North. In fact Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech are 9-0 vs the North. With that knowledge in hand, lets look to exploit those matchups this week.

Kansas at Kansas State (+2.5)
Kansas has won 3 in a row in this series and has the better QB. Kansas State's 3 wins in the Big 12 have come against Iowa State, Colorado and Texas A&M. Enough said. Pick: Kansas -2.5

Oklahoma State at Iowa State (+7.5)
Same logic. OSU won this meeting last year 59-17, has the better QB, and the better coach. Oklahoma State will also be looking to take out their anger from last week's loss at Texas this week. Pick: Oklahoma State -7.5

Oklahoma at Nebraska(+4)
Oklahoma won last year's meeting 62-28. The Sooners have lost 3 games by a combined 5 points. The Huskers haven't looked good in over a month. The tough DL of the Sooners should be able to bother the Huskers offense just enough to squeek out a win in Lincoln. I expect the Sooners to return to form and win by at least a TD. Pick: Oklahoma -4

Season: 12-15

The Holmes Computer Rankings

With 2/3 of the season under our belt, the Holmes Computer Rankings are starting to weed out some teams and narrow down the race for the Top 2 spots. How high does Oregon jump? Who is ranked higher right now, TCU or Boise State? Time for week 2 of the rankings.

1. Texas - 41.715
2. Alabama - 41.194
3. Boise State - 38.773
4. Florida - 38.693
5. TCU - 37.106
6. Oregon - 36.410
7. Ohio State - 35.635
8. Iowa - 35.609
9. Cincinnati - 35.133
10. Penn State - 34.164
11. LSU - 33.383
12. Georgia Tech - 33.023
13. Utah - 32.073
14. USC - 31.604
15. Notre Dame - 28.911
16. BYU - 28.740
17. Pittsburgh - 28.689
18. Oklahoma - 28.668
19. Auburn - 27.637
20. Houston - 27.465
21. Texas Tech - 27.219
22. Nebraska - 26.880
23. Virginia Tech -26.633
24. Wisconsin - 26.498
25. Texas A&M - 25.797

We have a new #1! Texas's thrashing of Oklahoma State moves them past Alabama for the top spot in the rankings. Ohio State is definitely benefiting from strength of schedule and a defense that has 3 shutouts while only allowing 11.7 ppg. Please remember these rankings are very fluid and some teams are looking a little better because they have played more games.