It's championship week and the last shot to pick some winners prior to the bowl season. Point differentials can say a lot about a team's performance. While they can be run up a tad versus weaker opponents, they tend to regress to the mean this late in the season. Looking at some lines this week, I can see where some PD's (I only use Division I scores) might not match what the lines say.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-1)
PD - Cin +16.1, Pitt +12.4. Cincinnati's 28-21 win last year over Pitt snapped a three game losing streak in the series for the Bearcats. The Bearcats have played well on the road and the chance to go 12-0 will keep them focused. Pick: Cincinnati (+1)

Arizona at USC (-7.5)
PD - USC +7.2, AZ +5.7. Arizona seems to match up very well versus USC. I may be simplifying this too much, but USC the last 2 years have beaten Arizona by 7 points. USC is worse this year than the last 2 years. Arizona is better this year than the last 2 years. Statistically Arizona has the better offense and better defense (by yardage). USC is hard to beat in the Coliseum and Arizona isn't a particularly good road team. I think USC wins, but it wont be by 8 points. Pick: AZ +7.5

Houston vs East Carolina (+1)
PD - Hou +14.1, ECU +5.7. Houston beat ECU last year 41-24. This game seems to pit strength vs weakness. Houston should be able to pass at will against ECU. ECU should be able to run at will against Houston. Houston's QB is better than ECU's RB so I will take the Cougars. Pick: Houston -1

Season: 19-20

The Holmes Computer Rankings

No upsets on the field last week, but Florida has finally passed TCU for the #2 spot in the rankings. With TCU done playing, they can't pass Florida, but should Alabama win, they may sneak into the #2 spot in the final rankings. Also, nice to see four PAC-10 teams in the Top 25.

1. Texas - 59.131
2. Florida - 56.956
3. TCU - 56.775
4. Alabama - 54.929
5. Boise State - 53.994
6. Oregon - 49.661
7. Ohio State - 49.021
8. Cincinnati - 47.933
9. BYU - 46.560
10. Virginia Tech - 46.463
11. Penn State - 44.958
12. Georgia Tech - 44.870
13. Houston - 44.798
14. Nebraska - 44.184
15. Iowa - 43.264
16. Utah - 43.143
17. LSU - 42.989
18. USC - 42.353
19. Miami - 42.205
20. Oregon State - 40.903
21. Central Michigan - 40.355
22. Stanford - 40.185
23. Oklahoma - 40.046
24. Pittsburgh - 40.017
25. Oklahoma St. - 39.793

These rankings should also show the MWC conference should get an automatic bid. They have 3 of the top 16 teams and are just as good as the ACC or Big East. The money grubbing power conferences should step aside and let them play with the big boys every year.

College Football Picks - Week 13

Finally, I am back to .500 and I can't wait for bowl season. This is an interesting week in the SEC where some road favorites look to hold on. Let's see who I like.

Ole Miss at Mississippi State (+7)
Last year Ole Miss beat MSU 45-0. MSU is being out gained and outscored on the season. Ole Miss is coming off a big win vs LSU and should be able to carry over the momentum into the Egg Bowl. Look for Ole Miss to exploit MSU's weak pass defense (7.9 YPA) on their way to a route. Pick: Ole Miss -7

Tennessee at Kentucky (+3)
Tennessee has beaten Kentucky the last 4 years. Tennessee hasn't won a road game this year which scares me, but they have the better players and coach. Monte Kiffin will have a few tricks up his sleeve that will confuse Kentucky's backup QB. Expect the Vols to pound the ball on the ground to exploit the Wildcats poor run defense (4.6 ypc). Pick: Tennessee -3

Alabama at Auburn (+10)
Alabama beat Auburn 36-0 last year. While Auburn's offense has been better this year, their defense has gotten worse. Auburn is giving up 177 ypg and 4.5 ypc which spells trouble when Mark Ingram and the Crimson Tide come to town. Alabama will make Auburn one-dimensional on offense and cruise to victory. Pick: Alabama -10

Season: 18-18

Alabama and Florida

Florida, Alabama, and Texas all control their own destiny on their way to the BCS Championship Game. Florida and Alabama cruised to victories this past weekend vs Florida International (ranked 99/120 in my computer system) and 1AA Chattanooga. This should be unacceptable. I wish the voters would have grown a pair and done something about the SEC playing creampuffs in November. The voters SHOULD have voted Texas number 1 this week to send a message that we will not stand for this. It wouldn't matter in the long run anyways, as an undefeated SEC champion would still finish in the Top 2. This would have been an act to show that in the future we expect teams to play competitive games in November and at least keep the facade of "every game counts" alive.

The Holmes Computer Rankings

This past weekend of college football brought us some exciting match ups like Florida vs Florida International and Alabama vs Chattanooga. It is a disgrace that elite powers are playing such inferior competition in November. You know what makes me smile....my computer agrees with me. Florida and Alabama fall out of the Top 2 spots. Lets see what my computer thinks.

1. Texas - 56.187
2. TCU - 53.182
3. Florida - 52.943
4. Alabama - 52.833
5. Boise State - 50.629
6. Ohio State - 48.511
7. Oregon - 48.282
8. Georgia Tech - 45.020
9. Cincinnati - 44.652
10. Penn State - 44.409
11. BYU - 43.283
12. Iowa - 42.743
13. Utah - 41.699
14. Virginia Tech - 41.430
15. Pittsburgh - 40.847
16. Nebraska - 40.435
17. Oklahoma St. - 39.782
18. Nevada - 39.451
19. Oregon State - 39.401
20. LSU - 39.321
21. USC - 39.224
22. Houston - 38.962
23. Wisconsin - 37.966
24. Stanford - 37.834
25. Clemson - 37.799

It's important to keep in mind that my system is an aggregate of points so now that the Big Ten is basically done with their season, those teams will slowly drop into place over the next two weeks. The SEC winner will still finish ahead of TCU if they are undefeated most likely. Also, the Mountain West Conference is cleaning up with 3 of the top 13 teams. I guess it may be time to re-visit their automatic bid application.

College Football Picks - Week 12

It feels so good when what you expect to happen actually does. A 3-0 week can do wonders on a psyche. The main lesson last week was, in order to beat Vegas you have to think like Vegas. Don't let them trick you into a line that seems to good to be true. With that in mind we look to get into the black this week.

Rutgers at Syracuse (+8)
Rutgers is coming off 31-0 thrashing of South Florida. Syracuse is 0-5 in the Big East and has only stayed within 8 points of a dreadful Louisville team. Rutgers has won the last 4 meetings in this series by scores of 18, 24, 31 and 22. While the Rutgers pass defense isn't great, the turnover margins (Rutgers +12, Syracuse -9) should allow Rutgers to pull away. Pick: Rutgers -8

Stanford at CAL (O/U 63.5)
This total seems a little high and is no doubt influenced by the Stanford totals (93 and 76) the last 2 weeks. The Under in PAC-10 play is 2-5 for CAL and 3-4 for Stanford. The last 4 meetings between these two teams has produced totals of 53, 33, 43, and 30. Throw in the fact that both teams love to run the football (they average 78 rushing attempts per game combined) and the clock becomes our friend. Pick: Under 63.5

Oklahoma at Texas Tech (O/U 53)
This line reflects that the books are getting killed by the "Under" when the Sooners play. Last week was the first week all season the "Over" cashed in for Oklahoma. The last 3 totals in games between these two teams have been 86, 61, and 58. Both teams love to throw the ball and that leads to more possessions and more points. I think the fact that this game is in Lubbock helps push the line up. Pick: Over 53

Season: 16-17

LSU vs Oregon

The BCS standings reveal all that is wrong with College Football. Most people look to see who the Top 2 teams are but you can get a better idea of how teams can get to the top by looking deeper into standings. A perfect example of what I am talking about is LSU being ranked ahead of Oregon. I personally (and my computer system agrees) think that Oregon's body of work is much better than LSU's. The Harris Poll, Coach's Poll, and the BCS disagree. Time for a tale of the tape.

LSU
Record: 8-2 overall, 4-2 SEC
Ranks: 8 BCS, 10 Harris, 10 Coaches
Oregon
Record: 8-2 overall, 6-1 PAC-10
Ranks: 11 BCS, 11 Harris, 11 Coaches

Just looking at these numbers and it doesn't seem to be much of a travesty that LSU is ranked higher. Lets dig a little deeper.

Losses
LSU: #1 Florida (13-3), at #2 Alabama (24-15)
Oregon: at #6 Boise State (19-8), at #17 Stanford (51-42)
Advantage: LSU even with a home loss
This has to be the only argument someone can make to have LSU higher, but it is a weak argument as I will show.

Wins vs Teams with Winning Records
LSU: at Georgia (6-4), Auburn (7-4)
Oregon: #21 Utah (8-2), #18 USC (7-3), #25 CAL (7-3)
Advantage: Oregon
LSU hasn't beaten a team that is currently ranked in the Top 25 of the BCS, Harris, or Coaches Poll while Oregon has beaten 3.

Common Opponent - Washington (both teams played in Seattle)
LSU 31-23 win, Oregon 43-19
Advantage: Oregon

Opponents Records
LSU: 53-49 overall, 45-49 vs DI
Oregon: 56-45 overall, 53-45 vs DI
Advantage: Oregon
The 8 teams that LSU have beaten have a combined record of 33-49, 26-49 vs DI while the 8 teams that Oregon have beaten are of 39-42, 37-42 vs DI.

Point Differential
LSU: 25.0 ppg, 13.7 ppg allowed (+11.3)
Oregon: 37.1 ppg, 20.9 allowed (+16.2)
Advantage: Oregon

Yardage Differential
LSU: 314.7 ypg, 313.7 ypg allowed (+1)
Oregon: 414.6 ypg, 310.1 ypg allowed (+104.5)
Advantage: Oregon
Am I really susposed to believe that LSU is the 8th best team in the country when they outgain their opponents by 1 yard a game. Really?

The numbers never lie as Oregon cruises to a 5-1 victory. Clearly, Oregon has done more on the field this year than LSU. The Ducks have played the tougher schedule, beaten more quality opponents, and have a much greater point and yardage differentials. So what is the conclusion to draw here on the way the BCS works. The only conclusion to make is that College Football is about who you lose to rather than who you beat. It's not like Oregon has lost to chumps either. It is a shame that the voters and computers reward teams for playing weaker competition. I can only dream of the day when a playoff system will make all of this moot.