Finally, I am back to .500 and I can't wait for bowl season. This is an interesting week in the SEC where some road favorites look to hold on. Let's see who I like.
Ole Miss at Mississippi State (+7)
Last year Ole Miss beat MSU 45-0. MSU is being out gained and outscored on the season. Ole Miss is coming off a big win vs LSU and should be able to carry over the momentum into the Egg Bowl. Look for Ole Miss to exploit MSU's weak pass defense (7.9 YPA) on their way to a route. Pick: Ole Miss -7
Tennessee at Kentucky (+3)
Tennessee has beaten Kentucky the last 4 years. Tennessee hasn't won a road game this year which scares me, but they have the better players and coach. Monte Kiffin will have a few tricks up his sleeve that will confuse Kentucky's backup QB. Expect the Vols to pound the ball on the ground to exploit the Wildcats poor run defense (4.6 ypc). Pick: Tennessee -3
Alabama at Auburn (+10)
Alabama beat Auburn 36-0 last year. While Auburn's offense has been better this year, their defense has gotten worse. Auburn is giving up 177 ypg and 4.5 ypc which spells trouble when Mark Ingram and the Crimson Tide come to town. Alabama will make Auburn one-dimensional on offense and cruise to victory. Pick: Alabama -10
Season: 18-18
Monday, November 23, 2009
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Alabama and Florida
Florida, Alabama, and Texas all control their own destiny on their way to the BCS Championship Game. Florida and Alabama cruised to victories this past weekend vs Florida International (ranked 99/120 in my computer system) and 1AA Chattanooga. This should be unacceptable. I wish the voters would have grown a pair and done something about the SEC playing creampuffs in November. The voters SHOULD have voted Texas number 1 this week to send a message that we will not stand for this. It wouldn't matter in the long run anyways, as an undefeated SEC champion would still finish in the Top 2. This would have been an act to show that in the future we expect teams to play competitive games in November and at least keep the facade of "every game counts" alive.
The Holmes Computer Rankings
This past weekend of college football brought us some exciting match ups like Florida vs Florida International and Alabama vs Chattanooga. It is a disgrace that elite powers are playing such inferior competition in November. You know what makes me smile....my computer agrees with me. Florida and Alabama fall out of the Top 2 spots. Lets see what my computer thinks.
It's important to keep in mind that my system is an aggregate of points so now that the Big Ten is basically done with their season, those teams will slowly drop into place over the next two weeks. The SEC winner will still finish ahead of TCU if they are undefeated most likely. Also, the Mountain West Conference is cleaning up with 3 of the top 13 teams. I guess it may be time to re-visit their automatic bid application.1. Texas - 56.187
2. TCU - 53.182
3. Florida - 52.943
4. Alabama - 52.833
5. Boise State - 50.629
6. Ohio State - 48.511
7. Oregon - 48.282
8. Georgia Tech - 45.020
9. Cincinnati - 44.652
10. Penn State - 44.409
11. BYU - 43.283
12. Iowa - 42.743
13. Utah - 41.699
14. Virginia Tech - 41.430
15. Pittsburgh - 40.847
16. Nebraska - 40.435
17. Oklahoma St. - 39.782
18. Nevada - 39.451
19. Oregon State - 39.401
20. LSU - 39.321
21. USC - 39.224
22. Houston - 38.962
23. Wisconsin - 37.966
24. Stanford - 37.834
25. Clemson - 37.799
Friday, November 20, 2009
College Football Picks - Week 12
It feels so good when what you expect to happen actually does. A 3-0 week can do wonders on a psyche. The main lesson last week was, in order to beat Vegas you have to think like Vegas. Don't let them trick you into a line that seems to good to be true. With that in mind we look to get into the black this week.
Rutgers at Syracuse (+8)
Rutgers is coming off 31-0 thrashing of South Florida. Syracuse is 0-5 in the Big East and has only stayed within 8 points of a dreadful Louisville team. Rutgers has won the last 4 meetings in this series by scores of 18, 24, 31 and 22. While the Rutgers pass defense isn't great, the turnover margins (Rutgers +12, Syracuse -9) should allow Rutgers to pull away. Pick: Rutgers -8
Stanford at CAL (O/U 63.5)
This total seems a little high and is no doubt influenced by the Stanford totals (93 and 76) the last 2 weeks. The Under in PAC-10 play is 2-5 for CAL and 3-4 for Stanford. The last 4 meetings between these two teams has produced totals of 53, 33, 43, and 30. Throw in the fact that both teams love to run the football (they average 78 rushing attempts per game combined) and the clock becomes our friend. Pick: Under 63.5
Oklahoma at Texas Tech (O/U 53)
This line reflects that the books are getting killed by the "Under" when the Sooners play. Last week was the first week all season the "Over" cashed in for Oklahoma. The last 3 totals in games between these two teams have been 86, 61, and 58. Both teams love to throw the ball and that leads to more possessions and more points. I think the fact that this game is in Lubbock helps push the line up. Pick: Over 53
Season: 16-17
Rutgers at Syracuse (+8)
Rutgers is coming off 31-0 thrashing of South Florida. Syracuse is 0-5 in the Big East and has only stayed within 8 points of a dreadful Louisville team. Rutgers has won the last 4 meetings in this series by scores of 18, 24, 31 and 22. While the Rutgers pass defense isn't great, the turnover margins (Rutgers +12, Syracuse -9) should allow Rutgers to pull away. Pick: Rutgers -8
Stanford at CAL (O/U 63.5)
This total seems a little high and is no doubt influenced by the Stanford totals (93 and 76) the last 2 weeks. The Under in PAC-10 play is 2-5 for CAL and 3-4 for Stanford. The last 4 meetings between these two teams has produced totals of 53, 33, 43, and 30. Throw in the fact that both teams love to run the football (they average 78 rushing attempts per game combined) and the clock becomes our friend. Pick: Under 63.5
Oklahoma at Texas Tech (O/U 53)
This line reflects that the books are getting killed by the "Under" when the Sooners play. Last week was the first week all season the "Over" cashed in for Oklahoma. The last 3 totals in games between these two teams have been 86, 61, and 58. Both teams love to throw the ball and that leads to more possessions and more points. I think the fact that this game is in Lubbock helps push the line up. Pick: Over 53
Season: 16-17
Monday, November 16, 2009
LSU vs Oregon
The BCS standings reveal all that is wrong with College Football. Most people look to see who the Top 2 teams are but you can get a better idea of how teams can get to the top by looking deeper into standings. A perfect example of what I am talking about is LSU being ranked ahead of Oregon. I personally (and my computer system agrees) think that Oregon's body of work is much better than LSU's. The Harris Poll, Coach's Poll, and the BCS disagree. Time for a tale of the tape.
LSU
Record: 8-2 overall, 4-2 SEC
Ranks: 8 BCS, 10 Harris, 10 Coaches
Oregon
Record: 8-2 overall, 6-1 PAC-10
Ranks: 11 BCS, 11 Harris, 11 Coaches
Just looking at these numbers and it doesn't seem to be much of a travesty that LSU is ranked higher. Lets dig a little deeper.
Losses
LSU: #1 Florida (13-3), at #2 Alabama (24-15)
Oregon: at #6 Boise State (19-8), at #17 Stanford (51-42)
Advantage: LSU even with a home loss
This has to be the only argument someone can make to have LSU higher, but it is a weak argument as I will show.
Wins vs Teams with Winning Records
LSU: at Georgia (6-4), Auburn (7-4)
Oregon: #21 Utah (8-2), #18 USC (7-3), #25 CAL (7-3)
Advantage: Oregon
LSU hasn't beaten a team that is currently ranked in the Top 25 of the BCS, Harris, or Coaches Poll while Oregon has beaten 3.
Common Opponent - Washington (both teams played in Seattle)
LSU 31-23 win, Oregon 43-19
Advantage: Oregon
Opponents Records
LSU: 53-49 overall, 45-49 vs DI
Oregon: 56-45 overall, 53-45 vs DI
Advantage: Oregon
The 8 teams that LSU have beaten have a combined record of 33-49, 26-49 vs DI while the 8 teams that Oregon have beaten are of 39-42, 37-42 vs DI.
Point Differential
LSU: 25.0 ppg, 13.7 ppg allowed (+11.3)
Oregon: 37.1 ppg, 20.9 allowed (+16.2)
Advantage: Oregon
Yardage Differential
LSU: 314.7 ypg, 313.7 ypg allowed (+1)
Oregon: 414.6 ypg, 310.1 ypg allowed (+104.5)
Advantage: Oregon
Am I really susposed to believe that LSU is the 8th best team in the country when they outgain their opponents by 1 yard a game. Really?
The numbers never lie as Oregon cruises to a 5-1 victory. Clearly, Oregon has done more on the field this year than LSU. The Ducks have played the tougher schedule, beaten more quality opponents, and have a much greater point and yardage differentials. So what is the conclusion to draw here on the way the BCS works. The only conclusion to make is that College Football is about who you lose to rather than who you beat. It's not like Oregon has lost to chumps either. It is a shame that the voters and computers reward teams for playing weaker competition. I can only dream of the day when a playoff system will make all of this moot.
LSU
Record: 8-2 overall, 4-2 SEC
Ranks: 8 BCS, 10 Harris, 10 Coaches
Oregon
Record: 8-2 overall, 6-1 PAC-10
Ranks: 11 BCS, 11 Harris, 11 Coaches
Just looking at these numbers and it doesn't seem to be much of a travesty that LSU is ranked higher. Lets dig a little deeper.
Losses
LSU: #1 Florida (13-3), at #2 Alabama (24-15)
Oregon: at #6 Boise State (19-8), at #17 Stanford (51-42)
Advantage: LSU even with a home loss
This has to be the only argument someone can make to have LSU higher, but it is a weak argument as I will show.
Wins vs Teams with Winning Records
LSU: at Georgia (6-4), Auburn (7-4)
Oregon: #21 Utah (8-2), #18 USC (7-3), #25 CAL (7-3)
Advantage: Oregon
LSU hasn't beaten a team that is currently ranked in the Top 25 of the BCS, Harris, or Coaches Poll while Oregon has beaten 3.
Common Opponent - Washington (both teams played in Seattle)
LSU 31-23 win, Oregon 43-19
Advantage: Oregon
Opponents Records
LSU: 53-49 overall, 45-49 vs DI
Oregon: 56-45 overall, 53-45 vs DI
Advantage: Oregon
The 8 teams that LSU have beaten have a combined record of 33-49, 26-49 vs DI while the 8 teams that Oregon have beaten are of 39-42, 37-42 vs DI.
Point Differential
LSU: 25.0 ppg, 13.7 ppg allowed (+11.3)
Oregon: 37.1 ppg, 20.9 allowed (+16.2)
Advantage: Oregon
Yardage Differential
LSU: 314.7 ypg, 313.7 ypg allowed (+1)
Oregon: 414.6 ypg, 310.1 ypg allowed (+104.5)
Advantage: Oregon
Am I really susposed to believe that LSU is the 8th best team in the country when they outgain their opponents by 1 yard a game. Really?
The numbers never lie as Oregon cruises to a 5-1 victory. Clearly, Oregon has done more on the field this year than LSU. The Ducks have played the tougher schedule, beaten more quality opponents, and have a much greater point and yardage differentials. So what is the conclusion to draw here on the way the BCS works. The only conclusion to make is that College Football is about who you lose to rather than who you beat. It's not like Oregon has lost to chumps either. It is a shame that the voters and computers reward teams for playing weaker competition. I can only dream of the day when a playoff system will make all of this moot.
The Holmes Computer Rankings
The top teams are still undefeated, but my data doesn't agree with the real BCS. My computers continue to think that Florida isn't one of the top 3 teams in the country. Florida has only beaten 1 ranked team all year and is struggling to separate from mid-level SEC teams. Meanwhile, TCU continues to clobber the opposition. I know the MWC isn't the SEC, but they both leagues have 3 ranked teams and TCU has beaten 3 ranked teams that are currently ranked (Clemson, Utah, and BYU). Lets see how the Top 25 stacks up...
559, 345, 313, 484, 312, 517, and 461. What are the significance of those numbers? Those are Nevada's rushing totals during their current 7 game win streak. Boise State better watch out for the Wolfpack as The Holmes Computer Rankings slips them in at #25.1. Texas - 51.521
2. Alabama - 51.260
3. TCU - 49.316
4. Florida - 48.564
5. Boise State - 46.800
6. Ohio State - 44.918
7. Oregon - 44.192
8. Georgia Tech - 43.579
9. Cincinnati - 43.234
10. LSU - 39.907
11. Pittsburgh - 39.457
12. Iowa - 39.213
13. BYU - 38.770
14. Penn State - 38.379
15. Wisconsin - 37.742
16. USC - 37.635
17. Stanford - 37.467
18. Utah - 37.186
19. Nebraska - 36.908
20. Virginia Tech - 36.842
21. Oklahoma - 36.516
22. Oklahoma St. - 35.152
23. Oregon State - 34.849
24. Clemson - 34.442
25. Nevada - 33.919
Thursday, November 12, 2009
College Football Picks - Week 11
It has been a rough year so far, but it could turn around at any point. I have to start thinking like Vegas in order to beat Vegas. If a line seems too low, then I have to wonder why. With that in mind, lets look to make some picks.
Stanford at USC (-10.5)
USC has won 47 of their last 48 home games so coming home will be nice but the lone loss was against Stanford in 2007. Stanford is hitting on all cylinders right now offensively averaging 210 yards rushing and 234 yards passing per game. The USC defense has given up an average of 30 points and 451 yards over the last 4 games. Factor in that USC could be without WR Damian Williams and TE Anthony McCoy and this has close game written all over it. Pick: Stanford +10.5
Alabama at Mississippi State (+12)
Mississippi State has started to play better football year, but they dont have enough offense to compete with Alabama. The Bulldogs hung in with Florida, but it took 2 defensive tds to stay within 10 points. That isn't likely to happen again. The Bulldogs defense isnt good enough to stop the Crimson Tide running attack. This game won't even be close. Pick: Alabama -12
Indiana at Penn State (-26)
Penn State is 1-3 ATS in home games coming off a loss to Ohio State. Indiana has played much better than their 4-6 record. They stayed within 26 points in their losses to Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The Hoosiers have covered the last 2 meetings vs Penn State and are 6-3 ATS this year. Pick: Indiana +26
Season: 13-17
Stanford at USC (-10.5)
USC has won 47 of their last 48 home games so coming home will be nice but the lone loss was against Stanford in 2007. Stanford is hitting on all cylinders right now offensively averaging 210 yards rushing and 234 yards passing per game. The USC defense has given up an average of 30 points and 451 yards over the last 4 games. Factor in that USC could be without WR Damian Williams and TE Anthony McCoy and this has close game written all over it. Pick: Stanford +10.5
Alabama at Mississippi State (+12)
Mississippi State has started to play better football year, but they dont have enough offense to compete with Alabama. The Bulldogs hung in with Florida, but it took 2 defensive tds to stay within 10 points. That isn't likely to happen again. The Bulldogs defense isnt good enough to stop the Crimson Tide running attack. This game won't even be close. Pick: Alabama -12
Indiana at Penn State (-26)
Penn State is 1-3 ATS in home games coming off a loss to Ohio State. Indiana has played much better than their 4-6 record. They stayed within 26 points in their losses to Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The Hoosiers have covered the last 2 meetings vs Penn State and are 6-3 ATS this year. Pick: Indiana +26
Season: 13-17
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