Sunday, August 9, 2009

Cupcake City

Now that you know who has the toughest road to the BCS, let's look into who has the easiest.

Least Games vs Top 25
1. Boise State - 1
1. Notre Dame -1
2. Texas - 2
2. Penn State - 2
2. Ole Miss - 2
2. TCU - 2
2. Iowa - 2
2. Nebraska - 2

The first thing that jumps out to me is that BCS busters Boise State and Notre Dame play 1 game all season vs Top 25 teams. If the Broncos can get past Oregon in their opener they could cruise to a BCS game. Notre Dame also even if they lose to USC could very well end up in a BCS game based on their sorry scheduling. Title contenders Texas, Penn State, and Ole Miss also should sleepwalk to 10 wins. Interesting to see that teams from the mighty Big 12 and SEC (considered by far and away the best 2 conferences) could get through the regular season playing only 2 ranked opponents all season.

Games vs Top 25 at Home
1. Texas - 0
1. Utah - 0
1. Oregon State - 0
2. 12 teams tied at 1

Texas will face only 2 ranked teams, while Utah and Oregon State face 3. Texas will get to play Oklahoma in Dallas which helps. 15 of the Top 25 teams will play 1 or less games at home vs current Top 25 teams.

Games vs Top 25 on the Road
1. Penn State - 0
1. Ole Miss - 0
1. Boise State - 0
1. Notre Dame - 0
1. BYU - 0
2. 12 teams tied at 1

It's almost unfair to other title contenders, but Penn State and Ole Miss will not have to play a game vs a Top 25 team on the road all season. BYU does play Oklahoma in Dallas so their schedule isn't as forgiving as the other 4. 17 of the Top 25 teams in the country will play 1 or less games on the road vs current Top 25 teams.
Makes you feel bad for the other 8 (especially PAC-10 teams like USC (4), LSU (3), Utah (3), Florida State (3), and Oregon State (3). Going to be tough to overcome those schedules and stay high enough in the rankings will all the cupcake city going on with Top 25 teams.

I do need to mention the following 4 games that are being played at neutral site that will help shape the BCS picture. By the way, I hate neutral site games. It is a cop-out by both parties to having to play tough opponents on the road. It's pathetic and I wish the NCAA would put a stop to it.

Florida vs Georgia in Jacksonville
Texas vs Oklahoma in Dallas
BYU vs Oklahoma in Dallas
Alabama vs Virginia Tech in Atlanta

True Home Games
1. Penn State - 8
1. Oklahoma State - 8
1. Notre Dame - 8
2. Florida - 7 + 1 neutral site game
2. Alabama - 7 + 1 neutral site game

At least Oklahoma State scheduled competition by playing Georgia at home. Penn State is looking like a front runner for the weakest schedule in the Top 25. Notre Dame is also trying the cupcake formula to become relevant again. Watch the media jump all over that bandwagon when they win 9 to 10 games this year. That credit should belong to the Athletic Director for his ability to schedule down.

Here are my Top 5 easiest schedules for Top 25 teams:
1. Boise State (vs Oregon)
2. Notre Dame (vs USC)
3. TCU (vs Utah, at BYU)
4. Penn State (vs Ohio State, vs Iowa)
5. Iowa (at Penn State, at Ohio State)

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