BCS Bowl Predictions

I am going to try and predict which 10 teams will play in the big money BCS games this year. In doing so, it is important to know some recent history. In the last 6 years, only 6 teams have played for the BCS Championship (Florida, LSU, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, and Ohio State). Hard to predict someone outside these 6 when you consider all are currently ranked in the Top 10. Going to take some real work by another team to convince the voters to vote against these top teams. After the Championship Game is announced, it is then very important to look at the order in which the BCS Bowls will select at-large bids, host teams, and at the large qualifications (9 wins and finish in Top 14). I see 9 automatic qualifiers leaving only one real spot as an at-large (and if Notre Dame somehow ends up in the Top 14 that number fall to 0). So without further ado, here are my sure to be dead on predictions for the 2009 BCS Bowls.

BCS Championship Game
Florida vs Texas
It is looking like the winner of Texas vs Oklahoma will end up playing Florida (Texas has won 3 of last 4). For everyone involved, lets hope Oklahoma is kept as far away from a meaningful game as possible (see 5 straight BCS losses as reason why).

Rose Bowl
USC* vs Ohio State*

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech* vs Penn State
If Notre Dame were eligible they would play in the Orange Bowl. No doubt in my mind since they pick first amongst BCS Bowls this year. I think Notre Dame gets 9 wins but not so sure they get in the Top 14 to qualify if they dont beat USC. That leaves the Orange Bowl to pick amongst a couple of teams (Rutgers, TCU, Penn State, Boise State and CAL in my scenario) and I think the tradition of the Nittany Lions leads them to Miami over CAL. Tough break for CAL but the PAC-10 never gets the benefit of the doubt ad the Big Ten continues to get 2 teams in the BCS every year even though they have lost 6 straight BCS games.

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma* vs TCU*
I think both TCU and Boise State will go 11-1. I think TCU will end up ranked higher than Boise State based off wins vs Utah and BYU. I don't think the Fiesta Bowl wants to deal with the Big East Winner Rutgers in this scenario.

Sugar Bowl
Alabama* vs Rutgers*

I see 9 automatic qualifiers this year. Of course if CAL beats USC and gets to the Rose Bowl (can see that easily happening) all of this changes. USC would almost certainly get an at large bid should they finish with 10+ wins.

Strasburg and The Nationals

Nationals Team President Stan Kasten said yesterday that the Nationals might not reach an agreement with Stephen Strasburg, whom they drafted #1 overall in the MLB Draft in June. Strasburg's agent Scott Boras had stated prior to the draft that he was looking for a $50 million contract. Most people in the industry laughed at that thought, but the precedent was set that this player was going to shatter the previous record bonus of $10.5 million that Mark Prior received in 2001. The prevailing notion was that it was going to take at least $20 million to get Strasburg signed. If no agreement is reached, the question becomes whose fault was it?

The Nationals have claimed to have offered Strasburg more money than any player has ever gotten through the draft. While I am certain that is the case, I think the Nationals are making a mistake by not making the offer public knowledge. It is important to remember that the Nationals weren't able to come to an agreement with last year's 1st round pick, Aaron Crow. Their fan base was skeptical about whether the team was even going to draft Strasburg because of the type of money it would cost to get him signed. The Nationals can't afford to not sign Strasburg and keep their fan base believing in the plan to build through scouting and player development. Losing a pitcher of Strasburg's talent would be a devastating blow to the future of the organization in more ways than one. If the Nationals go down this route 2 years in a row, it might kill what credibility they still have in the community.

The Nationals would then most likely have the #1 and #2 picks in the 2010 draft. That draft would include arguably the best pitching prospect ever (Strasburg) and the best hitting prospect of the last decade (Bryce Harper). Seeing as Boras will most likely represent Harper, it would be catastrophic for the Nationals to not come to terms with Strasburg. For this reason alone, it is in the best interest of the organization to make the offer public and put the pressure on Boras. They can't hide behind the blanket statement of "record deal offered". They need to make the offer public or forever be haunted by the reputation of being cheap and not caring about their fans.

Manipulating the Computers

College Football has become a game about not losing rather than who you beat. It used to be that teams got credit for beating other good teams. Nowadays, once the calender hits November all the voters worry about is your record. How does this relate to the recent Top 25 poll that was released you ask? Simple, the teams that start out higher have a inherent advantage over the teams that start out lower. Even though no one has played a game, decisions have already been made on which teams are better. We had to hear all last season and already this season that the SEC and Big 12 are by far the best 2 conferences this year.

Let's look at how many teams are ranked in each conference again. SEC (5), PAC-10 (4), Big 12 (4), ACC (4), Big Ten (3), MWC (3), WAC (1), IND (1), Big East (0). Now you would think that the conferences that have more ranked teams would play more ranked opponents. Common sense would presume that if the SEC has 5 ranked teams, then those 5 teams should play more ranked opponents during the season than teams in conferences that don't have as many ranked teams. Lets look at on average, how many ranked opponents that each conferences plays (only the ranked teams are used).

PAC-10 has 4 ranked teams that play 16 games vs Top 25 (4.0 avg).
ACC has 4 ranked teams that play 15 games vs Top 25 (3.75 avg).
SEC has 5 ranked teams that play 16 games vs Top 25 (3.2 avg).
MWC has 3 ranked teams that play 9 games vs Top 25 (3.0 avg).
Big 12 has 4 ranked teams that play 11 games vs Top 25 (2.75 avg).
Big 10 has 3 ranked teams that play 7 games vs Top 25 (2.33 avg).
WAC has 1 ranked team that plays 1 game vs Top 25 (1.0 avg).
Ind. has 1 ranked team that plays 1 game vs Top 25 (1.0 avg).
Big East has 0 ranked teams.

What this tells me is that the PAC-10 and ACC are being punished for playing better competition than the SEC and Big 12. The better competition you play, the more likely you are to stumble. Teams that avoid playing ranked opponents or on the road or quality non-conference teams are being rewarded by this stupid computer system. Watch towards the end of the season when the SEC and Big 12 have higher ranked teams and once again are touted as the best conferences. They should be with the way they schedule. The voters only care about the bottom line, not about how a team got there. It's stupid and just plain uneducated. Of course, if we had a playoff we wouldn't have this problem!

Does the MWC deserve an automatic bid?

The Mountain West Conference has been taking its case for an automatic bid to Congress because it seems that the power brokers in College Football want to keep them in the closet. In other words, they are acting like Republicans in refusing to spread the weatlth. Did I say that out loud? Currently the BCS only allows for automatic bids for the winners of the Big 6 conferences (SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, and PAC-10). The argument against the MWC is that they don't have the strength of schedules or the depth of other conferences to warrant inclusion on a yearly basis. This became a hot topic last year as undefeated Utah was left out of the National Championship Game over teams that had lost. Utah then went out and dismantled highly ranked Alabama. The haters stated that while a team like Utah can win against a power team occasionally, it wouldn't be able to withstand the schedule of the power teams. I don't believe this nonsense. Let's make a case for the MWC.

• The MWC is 2-0 in BCS games (Utah won the 2005 Fiesta Bowl vs Pitt and the 2009 Sugar Bowl vs Alabama). The ACC is 2-9 all time in BCS games and the Big Ten has lost 6 in a row. Oklahoma has lost 5 straight BCS games. Hmm...
• The MWC had 2 teams finish in the Top 10 in 2008. Utah #2 and TCU #7. Neither the Big East or ACC had a team finish in the Top 10. Hmm...
• The MWC has 3 teams ranked in the preseason Top 25. TCU is 17th, Utah is 18th, and BYU is 24th. In comparison, the Big East has 0 ranked teams. Hmm...
• BYU has four Top 25 teams and Utah has three Top 25 teams on its schedule. That is as many or more than Top 10 teams Florida (3), Texas (2), Alabama (3), Ohio State (3), Penn State (2), and Ole Miss (2). Hmm...
• The MWC went 9-5 during the regular season vs BCS power conference teams. They then went 3-2 in Bowl Games. Hmm...

It would seem that MWC conference teams don't have a problem competing with the other 6 BCS conferences. While they may not have a team that is a traditional powerhouse, they do possess the quality of teams and the schedules to warrant an automatic bid into the BCS. Let's hope the powers that be come to their senses and include them soon.

Cupcake City

Now that you know who has the toughest road to the BCS, let's look into who has the easiest.

Least Games vs Top 25
1. Boise State - 1
1. Notre Dame -1
2. Texas - 2
2. Penn State - 2
2. Ole Miss - 2
2. TCU - 2
2. Iowa - 2
2. Nebraska - 2

The first thing that jumps out to me is that BCS busters Boise State and Notre Dame play 1 game all season vs Top 25 teams. If the Broncos can get past Oregon in their opener they could cruise to a BCS game. Notre Dame also even if they lose to USC could very well end up in a BCS game based on their sorry scheduling. Title contenders Texas, Penn State, and Ole Miss also should sleepwalk to 10 wins. Interesting to see that teams from the mighty Big 12 and SEC (considered by far and away the best 2 conferences) could get through the regular season playing only 2 ranked opponents all season.

Games vs Top 25 at Home
1. Texas - 0
1. Utah - 0
1. Oregon State - 0
2. 12 teams tied at 1

Texas will face only 2 ranked teams, while Utah and Oregon State face 3. Texas will get to play Oklahoma in Dallas which helps. 15 of the Top 25 teams will play 1 or less games at home vs current Top 25 teams.

Games vs Top 25 on the Road
1. Penn State - 0
1. Ole Miss - 0
1. Boise State - 0
1. Notre Dame - 0
1. BYU - 0
2. 12 teams tied at 1

It's almost unfair to other title contenders, but Penn State and Ole Miss will not have to play a game vs a Top 25 team on the road all season. BYU does play Oklahoma in Dallas so their schedule isn't as forgiving as the other 4. 17 of the Top 25 teams in the country will play 1 or less games on the road vs current Top 25 teams.
Makes you feel bad for the other 8 (especially PAC-10 teams like USC (4), LSU (3), Utah (3), Florida State (3), and Oregon State (3). Going to be tough to overcome those schedules and stay high enough in the rankings will all the cupcake city going on with Top 25 teams.

I do need to mention the following 4 games that are being played at neutral site that will help shape the BCS picture. By the way, I hate neutral site games. It is a cop-out by both parties to having to play tough opponents on the road. It's pathetic and I wish the NCAA would put a stop to it.

Florida vs Georgia in Jacksonville
Texas vs Oklahoma in Dallas
BYU vs Oklahoma in Dallas
Alabama vs Virginia Tech in Atlanta

True Home Games
1. Penn State - 8
1. Oklahoma State - 8
1. Notre Dame - 8
2. Florida - 7 + 1 neutral site game
2. Alabama - 7 + 1 neutral site game

At least Oklahoma State scheduled competition by playing Georgia at home. Penn State is looking like a front runner for the weakest schedule in the Top 25. Notre Dame is also trying the cupcake formula to become relevant again. Watch the media jump all over that bandwagon when they win 9 to 10 games this year. That credit should belong to the Athletic Director for his ability to schedule down.

Here are my Top 5 easiest schedules for Top 25 teams:
1. Boise State (vs Oregon)
2. Notre Dame (vs USC)
3. TCU (vs Utah, at BYU)
4. Penn State (vs Ohio State, vs Iowa)
5. Iowa (at Penn State, at Ohio State)

Top 25 Poll Myths Revealed

The 2009 ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll was released last week for the upcoming season. The Florida Gators, the defending champs, will open the season as #1. I don't have a problem with that. This week I will break down the poll in depth. I had some questions that I needed answered. I decided to look into the myths and find the truth. First, which teams play the toughest schedules in reality (not in ESPN dream land)? Second, which teams play the easiest? Third, does the MWC conference deserve an automatic bid? Fourth, which conferences are overvalued and which ones are undervalued? And lastly, my predictions for the upcoming BCS games and eventual National Champion.

First thing I did was break the Top 25 down into conferences. Here is the breakdown: SEC (5), PAC 10 (4), Big 12 (4), ACC (4), MWC (3), Big 10 (3), WAC (1), IND (1). In case you were wondering the Big East had 0. Then I took all Top 25 teams and looked at how many games they have against other Top 25 teams. I then broke those down into home, road, and neutral site games. I then looked at how many "true" road games each of these teams play. Anyways, time to put on the snorkel and dive in.

Games vs Top 25
1. USC - 5
1. Oregon - 5
3. Oklahoma - 4
3. Virginia Tech - 4
3. LSU - 4
3. Georgia - 4
3. Georgia Tech - 4
3. Florida State - 4
3. BYU - 4

The PAC-10 (who knew, the media would like you to think they don't play anyone and the conference is brutal) leads the way with USC and Oregon playing 5 games vs Top 25 teams this year. That is more than any SEC team that is ranked even though the SEC has 5 ranked teams. Also, interesting to see the much beleaguered ACC have Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Florida State come in with 4 games each.

Games vs Top 25 at Home
1. Oregon - 4
2. Georgia Tech - 3
2. BYU - 3
4. 6 teams tied with 2

While Oregon does play 5 games vs Top 25 teams, they get 4 of them in Eugene. That should help, but it will still be a tough road to hoe.

Games vs Top 25 on the Road
1. USC - 4
2. LSU - 3
2. Utah - 3
2. Florida State - 3
2. Oregon State - 3

USC will have a tough time going undefeated with this schedule. Listen to the media and they will make you think otherwise (USC plays in the PAC-10 afterall), but no other team plays as many Top 25 teams and as many on the road. To put that into perspective...Top 10 teams Florida (1), Texas (1), Oklahoma (1), Alabama (1), Penn State (0), and Ole Miss (0) play 4 games COMBINED on the road vs Top 25 teams. I do understand that some of these teams play neutral site games, but for anyone who has been to one of those games (I attended The World's Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville twice) can attest that it isn't even close to being as hostile as a true road game.

True Road Games
1. USC - 6
1. Cal - 6
1. Georgia Tech - 6
1. Boise State - 6
1. TCU - 6
1. Utah - 6
1. Florida State - 6
1. Oregon State - 6

Wow, 3 teams from the PAC-10, 2 from the ACC, and 2 from the MWC. Where are all the Big 12 and SEC teams that are supposed to have these tough schedules? Is it any wonder that the PAC-10 and ACC are considered inferior to those conferences when they are playing more ranked opponents and more road games?

Here are my Top 5 toughest schedules for Top 25 teams:
1. USC (at Ohio State, at Cal, at Oregon, at Notre Dame, vs Oregon State)
2. LSU (Florida, at Alabama, at Ole Miss, at Georgia)
3. Oregon (USC, Cal, at Boise State, Utah, Oregon State)
4. Georgia (vs Florida in Jacksonville, vs LSU, at Oklahoma State, at Georgia Tech)
5. Oklahoma (vs Texas in Dallas, Oklahoma State, at Nebraska, vs BYU in Dallas)

The Rodney Dangerfield of College Football

The late comedian Rodney Dangerfield's catchphrase used to be "I get no respect." One team that definitely flies under the radar nationally and gets no respect is Oregon State. If this team was in the SEC or Big 12 we would never stop hearing about them. When Oregon State beat USC, it was hailed as a monumental upset by the national media because they don't watch Oregon State football. But was it really that much of an upset? Lets look at the numbers this decade for The Beavers.

Oregon State records:
9-4 in 2008
28-12 last 3 years
40-23 last 5 years
72-40 since 2000

Rankings
Oregon State has finished in the Top 25 4 times since 2000 including the last 3 seasons...18th in 2008, 25th in 2007, 21st in 2006, 4th in 2000.

Bowl games
Oregon State is 6-1 since 2000 in Bowl Games including 5 straight wins. 1-0 in BCS games (defeated Notre Dame 41-9 in 2000 Fiesta Bowl).

Other:
Oregon State defeated USC in 2006 and 2008.

You would think a team that has finished in the Top 25 the last 3 years, won 9+ games the last 3 years, won 5 straight bowl games, and beat USC 2 of the last 3 years would get some recognition from the national media. Well, that isn't the case for the Beavers. Even though the return their starting QB, top WR, and a freshman RB that ran for 1,253 yards and 11 TDs, I guarantee they wont be in the Preseason Top 25. It is a shame and unfortunately all they can do is quote the great Rodney Dangerfield every year and prove people wrong. Oregon State GETS NO RESPECT!!!

Finally a College Football Coach says it...

As a Bears fan, I remember Mike Ditka berating Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines after an audible turned into an interception that was returned by the Vikings for a touchdown. As a USC fan, I remember Jim Harbaugh calling out Pete Carroll when he got the Stanford job. I never did care for him all that much until yesterday when I read his thoughts on the state of college football today (thanks to the BCS).

"Somebody really ought to take notice of this stuff. You have eight or nine wins and so you're a great football team? Well, what if you played four patsies in your non-conference and then you only won half your conference games and so you get to go play in the Alamo Bowl and everyone says you're a great team. That's what happens … There's no question that the Pac-10 doesn't get that respect for playing teams out of conference of like caliber. If that is the way the game is set up now about it's all going off of computer rankings and all won-loss record, maybe we should be playing five non-conference games, so everybody is 9-2 and then the strength of schedule numbers look really good. Then, the BCS ranking spits out two Pac-10 teams for BCS bowls. To me, college football is not one team drubbing another team, because this team needs a lot of money and this team knows it can get a win to increase their BCS standings. Drub. Drub. Drub. Drub. Then, you still have that fan base who think it's enough of an experience, but they're getting cheated and we're kinda cheating the game."

It was almost like he was inside my mind repeating exactly what I have been saying to the numerous people who would listen to me over the last 5 years. Now as a USC fan I believe in playing anyone, anytime, anywhere. The BCS computers on the other hand would rather watch Florida beat The Citadel in November. Just keep this thought in your mind when the SEC and Big 12 start beating up 1-AA teams at home to start the season. It's embarrassing that a school that won the National Championship last year will start the season with 1-AA Charleston Southern (not to mention mixing in Florida International and Troy as well). As a college football fan, keep in mind how exciting it is to see the powerhouse programs play each other during the season. Isn't that better and more of an indication of how "good" a team is rather than watching Texas Tech beat up Eastern Washington by 60 points? Thank you Coach Harbaugh for telling the truth of what goes on in college football. I just hope some media members were paying attention.