Updated BCS Projections (11/24)

Wow, another exciting weekend in college football. With only 2 more weeks some things are starting to become more clear. Some teams have already qualified (Penn State and Utah) for the BCS while some are making their push. Lets look at the top 5 teams in the BCS and their chances to play in the BCS championship game and also my projected BCS game participants. To get a better look at each team, lets look at each teams Strength of Schedule (games played to date) and point differential per game (doesn't include games vs 1-AA teams).

BCS Standings
1. Alabama (SOS: 65, PD: 16.2) - The last undefeated team in a BCS conference. Having the 65th ranked schedule in the country and not playing Florida in the regular season has helped tremendously. Alabama has won every game but have done so with the least margin of any of the top 7 teams. Factor in that they haven't lost and it makes their PD look that much worse. The problem for Alabama is that they will play Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Auburn, lose to Florida

2. Texas (SOS: 5, PD: 24.0) - Texas was thought to be in a good position because they beat Oklahoma earlier in the year and would likely win a tiebreaker in a 3-way tie in the Big 12 South. Oklahoma may have screwed that up with a complete blow-out of Texas Tech. Texas has played a very tough schedule and their point differential looks very good when the SOS is factored in. If they don't win play for the Big 12 Championship, will they be chosen to play for the BCS Championship?
Prediction: 11-1 beat Texas A&M

3. Oklahoma (SOS: 25, PD: 26.7) - Oklahoma's thrashing of Texas Tech may have swayed enough voters to put them in a position to play for the Big 12 Championship. They have scored 60+ points 3 games in a row. With a tough game at Oklahoma State this weekend, their SOS will rise and probably put them in the BCS Top 2. They have lost 4 straight BCS games so they better hope that doesn't enter into the voters minds.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Oklahoma State and Missouri

4. Florida (SOS: 32, PD: 32.8) - Florida has beaten up teams lately in the SEC and their PD of 32.8 is very impressive. The SOS will rise as well with games at Florida State and the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. If they win out, they will play for the BCS Championship.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Florida State and Alabama

5. USC (SOS: 30, PD: 30.1) - USC has the second highest PD in the nation (only giving up 8.3 ppg) and played a relatively tough schedule so far. The problem, Notre Dame and UCLA are the last teams and wont give them enough leverage with the voters unless some upsets occur above them.
Prediction: 11-1 beat Notre Dame and UCLA

7. Texas Tech (SOS: 19, PD: 16.2) - Can a team that lost by 44 be considered one of the top 2 teams in the country? I don't think so, but they still have a shot to play for the BCS Championship. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech wins the Big 12 South. The winner of the Big 12 has already been put in the BCS Championship Game by the media, but did this weekend change that perception if the winner is Texas Tech? Texas Tech would need to be pushed hard by the voters to get over Texas, USC, and Utah. Would add another bullet to the playoff proponents and further make the BCS the laughing stock of sports if it were to happen.
Prediction: 11-1 beat Baylor.

Alright using my predictions here are the BCS Bowl Participants as I see them this week. Keep in mind the BCS selection rules. Rather than write them all out, here is a link -

BCS Championship Game
BCS 1 vs BCS 2
Oklahoma vs Florida
Creates more controversy since Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head.

Rose Bowl
PAC-10 vs Big 10
USC vs Penn State
Oregon State has a tough game at home against Oregon in the Civil War. I think Oregon wins and thus, the PAC-10 loses a team in the BCS.

Fiesta Bowl
Big 12 vs At-Large
Texas vs Ohio State
Fiesta gets to choose an at-large team first this year. Ohio State has been good to them recently (2003, 2004, 2006). Utah (2005) and Boise State (2007) has as well. It will come down to money and Ohio State will bring that.

Sugar Bowl
SEC vs At-Large
Alabama vs Utah
USC might be a possibility if Oregon State wins (Fiesta would have to pass them up with Utah) and would create a great matchup. The Sugar Bowl will pit a Non-BCS team against a SEC team for the second year in a row.

Orange Bowl
ACC vs At-Large (usually Big East, but doesn't have to be)
Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati

Cant wait to next week to see how this has completely blown up again.