Updated BCS Projections

After another exciting weekend of college football the picture to the BCS National Championship game gets clearer. Some things to consider....Although Texas Tech and Alabama control their own destiny to this game, I don't see either making it. The most interesting subplot is who wins the Big 12 South? Can two teams from the same division in the same conference play for the BCS Championship game? If Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma (which I think they will), then there might be a three-way tie on top of the Big 12 South. The tiebreaker that will decide the division will be the highest ranked team in the BCS. Hard to see Texas losing that one since they beat Oklahoma and lost the earliest. Here are my updated BCS Projections:

BCS National Championship Game
Texas vs Florida

Rose Bowl
USC vs Penn St.

Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs Ohio St.*

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs Utah*

Orange Bowl
Pitt vs Florida St.

The two most interesting races might be for the second Big 12 bid and the last at-large bid. Assuming Texas wins the tiebreaker to play in the Big 12 Championship game, that leaves Oklahoma and Texas Tech with one loss. Oklahoma would have beaten Texas Tech in my scenario but that doesn't mean that the Fiesta Bowl will take them over Texas Tech. The Fiesta Bowl might feel more comfortable will a proven program since they will most likely end up with Utah or Boise St. as the opponent. As for the last at-large bid, this one will be interesting as well. If Boise St. and Utah finish undefeated and in the top 12 of the final rankings, only 1 is guaranteed a spot. Utah will most likely be ranked higher in the final BCS standings and thus earn the automatic bid. Will the Sugar Bowl select Boise St. as the opponent for the SEC team? The other options are limited. The Big 12 and SEC can only send 2 teams. The PAC-10, ACC, and Big East most likely wont have another team ranked high enough to be eligible. That leaves only Boise St. and Ohio St. to choose from. Ohio St. has been crushed by SEC teams recently. Boise St. beat Oklahoma in one of the most memorable bowl games in recent history. Ultimately, I think Ohio State's history and ability to bring big money to the game will win out. Of course, if Oregon State wins out they will be in the Rose Bowl. That will allow USC to take the final at-large bid and slide over to the Sugar Bowl. The last couple weeks should be exciting.