72 wins for the Boston Celtics?

After beating the New York Knickerbockers last night, the Boston Celtics are currently 26-2 and riding an 18 game winning streak. The Boston Celtics are making a push to become one of the best teams in NBA history. After going 66-16 and winning the NBA Championship last year, it was expected that they would continue to be one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and be a favorite to return to the NBA Finals. Could they challenge the NBA record for wins in a season by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. Only one team in NBA history has ever won 70 games in a season (the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls went 72-10). The Bulls got out to a 41-3 mark after 44 games and it will be hard for the Celtics to match that, but they can still make a run at 70 wins. Looking closer at the numbers it appears that there wont be a drop off without injury to the Boston Three Party (Garnett, Pierce, or Allen).

Point Differential
2007-08 100.5 to 90.3 point differential 10.2 ppg #1
2008-09 101.3 to 90.9 point differential 10.4 ppg #2 (Cleveland 13.3)

Look for the Celtics to get to 70 wins and possibly challenge the all-time record of 72 wins. A big step towards the mark will be a Christmas Day rematch of the Finals with the LA Lakers.

The Despicable Furcal Deal

As someone who knows a little bit about the process of signing a baseball free agent, I was taken aback by the actions of Rafeal Furcal and his agent Paul Kinzer. On Monday, the Braves had thought they had an agreement with Furcal to sign with them for 3 years and $30 million. They had faxed over a signed terms agreement on Tuesday morning. This should have sealed the deal. All Kinzer needed to do was sign the terms agreement and fax it back to the Braves and the contract would have been binding. Instead Kinzer apparently took the agreement from the Braves to the Dodgers front office to get them to up their offer to sign the player. The Dodgers apparently went to $33 million for 3 years and Furcal agreed. Taking a signed terms agreement to another team is a ridiculous way to handle your business. The agent was simply taking advantage of the Braves and it might cost him in the future. Here are some quotes from Braves President and former GM John Schuerholz,

"Having been in this business for 40-some years, I’ve never seen anybody treated like that. The Atlanta Braves will no longer do business with that company — ever. I told [agent] Arn Tellem that we can’t trust them to be honest and forthright. I told him that in all my years, I’ve never seen any [agency] act in such a despicable manner. It was disgusting and unprofessional. We’re a proud organization, and we won’t allow ourselves to be treated that way. I advised Arn Tellem that whatever players he represents, just scratch us off the list. Take the name of the Atlanta Braves off their speed dial. They can deal with the other 29 clubs, and we’ll deal with the other hundred agents.”

Here is hoping that the Braves will stay true to their word and not sign any players represented by this agency. Peter Moylan, a relief pitcher, is the only current Brave represented by Tellem's agency. Schuerholz is a powerful man in the tight knit circle of MLB GM's. His words may have some influence on other GM's. I hope this causes the agency to lose some players. If I was a player getting ready to hit a big pay day, I would absolutely want all 30 teams bidding on me and certainly one like the Braves. I guess Kinzer has watched Jerry Maquire one too many times. He got his money, but will it cost him in the long run? Let's also hope that Keith Olbermann puts him on his "Worst Person in the World" list.

NFC Pro Bowl Roster

The NFC brings many more possibilities to the skill positions this year than the AFC. There are legitimately 6 RB's that could claim the 3 spots. Which QB is left out? The NFL will answer these questions at 4 pm EST today, but I am here to tell you who it should be. And the winners are.....

NFC
Offense
QB: *Drew Brees (Saints), Eli Manning (Giants), Kurt Warner (Cardinals)
RB: *Adrian Peterson (Vikings), Michael Turner (Falcons), Clinton Portis (Redskins)
FB: *Brad Hoover (Panthers)
WR: *Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), *Anquan Boldin (Cardinals), Steve Smith (Panthers), Roddy White (Falcons)
TE: *Jason Witten (Cowboys), Chris Cooley (Redskins)
OT: *Jamaal Brown (Saints), *David Diehl (Giants), Jordan Gross (Panthers)
OG: *Steve Hutchinson (Vikings), *Chris Snee (Giants), Leonard Davis (Cowboys)
C: *Matt Birk (Vikings), Olin Kreutz (Bears)

Defense
DE: *Jared Allen (Vikings), *Justin Tuck (Giants), John Abraham (Falcons)
DT: *Kevin Williams (Vikings), *Darnell Dockett (Cardinals), Jay Ratliff (Cowboys)
OLB: *Demarcus Ware (Cowboys), *Lance Briggs (Bears), Karlos Dansby (Cardinals)
MLB: *Jon Beason (Panthers), Patrick Willis (49ers)
CB: *Charles Woodson (Packers), *Ronde Barber (Buccaners), Charles Tillman (Bears)
S: *Brian Dawkins (Eagles), *Adrian Wilson (Cardinals), Nick Collins (Packers)

Special Teams
K: John Carney (Giants)
P: Donnie Jones (Rams)
KR: Allen Rossum(49ers)
ST: Chase Blackburn (Giants)

(*represents starters)

The Giants and Cardinals tied for the most with 6 Pro Bowlers. The Seahawks (thanks to Walter Jones's surgery) and Lions were the only 2 teams without a Pro Bowler. I am sure some of you will be offended with the exclusion of Tony Romo, DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook, etc. Lets hear the arguments for them!

Pro Bowl Ballot

The NFL Pro Bowl selections will be announced tomorrow. There are always "snubs" every year when the teams are announced initially, but keep in mind that there will be plenty of replacements between now and February. Hopefully I will get most of them right (personal satisfaction) and rankle some feathers of some fans as I "forgot" about their teams players that are playing at a Pro-Bowl level this year. Today we look at my AFC Roster (NFC tomorrow):

AFC
Offense
QB: *Peyton Manning (Colts), Jay Cutler (Broncos), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
RB: *Thomas Jones (Jets), LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers), Chris Johnson (Titans)
FB: *Le'Ron McClain (Ravens)
WR: *Andre Johnson (Texans), *Reggie Wayne (Colts), Brandon Marshall (Broncos), Wes Welker (Patriots)
TE: *Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs), Dallas Clark (Colts)
OT: *D'Brickashaw Ferguson (Jets), *Michael Roos (Titans), Jake Long (Dolphins)
OG: *Logan Mankins (Patriots), *Alan Faneca (Jets), Ben Grubbs (Ravens)
C: *Kevin Mawae (Titans), Dan Koppen (Patriots)

Defense
DE: *Mario Williams (Texans), *Richard Seymour (Patriots), Robert Mathis (Colts)
DT: *Albert Haynesworth (Titans), *Kris Jenkins (Jets), Haloti Ngata (Ravens)
OLB: *Joey Porter (Dolphins), *James Harrison (Steelers), Terrell Suggs (Ravens)
MLB: *Ray Lewis (Ravens), James Farrior (Steelers)
CB: *Nnamdi Asomugha (Raiders), *Cortland Finnegan (Titans), Rashean Mathis (Jaguars)
S: *Ed Reed (Ravens), *Troy Polamalu (Steelers), Kerry Rhodes (Jets)

Special Teams
K: Rob Bironas (Titans)
P: Shane Lechler (Raiders)
KR: Leon Washington (Jets)
ST: Josh Cribbs (Browns)

(*represents starters)

The Titans, Ravens, and Jets all tied for the most with 6 Pro Bowlers. The Bengals and Bills were the only 2 teams without a Pro Bowler. Come on, tell me who I put on that doesn't belong and who should be there!

Bowl Season is Upon Us

The Bowl Season is finally here. While some conferences have been given the media love (SEC and Big 12) and some have been hammered (PAC-10 and ACC), the bowl season will give us a better idea with some head-to-head match ups. Bowl season is put up or shut up time. I love looking at the point spreads when they first come out to see what Vegas thinks about each game. Which conference does Vegas see value in? Which conference does Vegas think is a little overrated? Lets break down each of the 6 BCS conferences:

The SEC is favored in 3/8 games.
The Big 12 is favored in 5/7 games.
The Big 10 is favored in 1/7 games.
The PAC-10 is favored in 4/5 games.
The Big East is favored in 4/6 games.
The ACC is favored in 6/10 games.

SEC
Vegas isn't buying the notion that the SEC is the best and deepest conference like some would like us to believe (yes, you ESPN). While Florida is favored to bring home the 4th BCS title in 5 years for the SEC, they will have 5 teams playing in bowls as underdogs.

Big 12
Vegas appears to be buying the Big 12 as the best conference. Although Oklahoma is an underdog against SEC Florida, they will have the chance to beat the PAC-10 (Oklahoma St vs Oregon), the Big 10 (Texas vs Ohio St, Missouri vs Northwestern, Kansas vs Minnesota), ACC (Nebraska vs Clemson), and the SEC (Texas Tech vs Ole Miss. If they can win most of these games, they will stake claim to the best conference in 2008.

Big 10
Yikes, what happened to this once proud conference. After going 0-4 in the BCS the last 2 years, they appeared to be heading down in the conference pecking order. Vegas has them as underdogs in 6/7 contests with Iowa the lone favorite. They will have the opportunity to quickly change their perception if they can beat USC, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, Kansas, Florida State, and South Carolina. Looks like an ugly bowl season for the Big 10.

PAC-10
For a conference that has been repeatedly bashed by the media, Vegas likes them in 4/5 match ups. Part of the reason for the bashing is only having 5 teams bowl eligible, but those 5 teams seem to be quality. The lone underdog is Oregon vs Oklahoma State. Being a PAC-10 homer, I am a little surprised to see Arizona favored over #16 BYU and Oregon State favored over #20 Pitt. While they wont face the elite teams the Big 10 will, they still face 4 ranked opponents. It could be a surprisingly good bowl season for them.

Big East
The Big East is favored in 4/6 contests. Cincinnati will have the opportunity to win the Orange Bowl for the conference, but the other games aren't going to bring much notoriety. Only 1/6 games are against ranked opponents.

ACC
The ACC has been regarded as the worst conference due to not having an elite team, but they did field an astonishing 10 bowl teams. They also went 6-4 against the SEC this season. Vegas likes them in 6/10 contests. On paper there seem to be some tough opponents (LSU, Nebraska, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Cal) but the truth is none of those teams offer the conference a chance to beat an elite opponent this year.

The Big 10 appears to have the toughest bowl schedule and it might lead to another down year for them. The PAC-10 could be the surprise conference as they have the best chance of the top conferences to go undefeated. Should Oklahoma beat Florida, it could be a long bowl season in the SEC. I can't wait until January!

BCS Title Game Rematch

I find it curious that the media has been saying the title game will be Florida vs Oklahoma. As Lee Corso would say "Not so fast my friend!"

I have been crunching some numbers and it might be closer than anyone thinks. Lets assume that Oklahoma, Florida, and Texas are 1, 2, and 3 in the polls (not necessarily in that order). The computers currently have Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Texas Tech, Utah, and Florida in that order. The difference between Texas (0.94) and Florida (0.82) is staggering. The Gators win yesterday will probably push them ahead of Alabama and Utah. But Texas is almost certain to still be ahead of Florida in the computers based on beating #1 Oklahoma. Also the computers will recognize Texas's strength of loss. They lost to #7 Texas Tech in Lubbock. Florida lost at home to unranked Ole Miss. Look for the computers to have Oklahoma and Texas 1-2 today.

The question, what needs to happen to put Texas ahead of Florida? Oklahoma needs to be #1 in the Coaches poll. This will keep Florida down closer to Texas. The closer in the polls Texas can keep it, the better as they will have a higher computer number. Also, in the Harris poll Florida was #2 before beating #1 Alabama. Even if they move to #1, Texas needs Oklahoma to eat into their margin. I think it is safe to say that Florida will not receive the same amount of poll points as Alabama last week. The more votes Oklahoma gets, the better for Texas. Even if Florida ends up at #1 in the Harris it wont kill Texas necessarily since the number the BCS uses is derived from points not poll position. Go Sooners!

For those of us that hate the BCS, the best case scenario to blow it up is to have an Oklahoma vs Texas rematch. Could you imagine the belly-aching that would come from the South (and ESPN) if Florida was left out? It brings a smile to my face. Bring on the chaos!

BCS Mania

There are some great match-ups as we head into the last weekend of the regular season in college football. If you have been reading this blog then you know how much I hate the BCS. College football needs a playoff. The "system" was created to put the Top 2 teams at the end of the season. This week #1 Alabama is a 10 point underdog against #4 Florida. What? How can they be the best team when Vegas (who by the way is in the business of making money) says they shouldn't stay within a TD of Florida? I understand they haven't lost but then again they have only beaten 1 team that is currently ranked. Also, one of the computers, The Sagarin ELO-CHESS rankings, has 1-AA James Madison at #24. They lost to Duke 31-7. Seriously, look it up. Enough about the computers, lets pick some games and predict the BCS games before we find out on Sunday what is going to happen.

SEC Championship
#1 Alabama vs #4 Florida
Line: Florida by 10 points
This game puts old school strength against new school speed in a fascinating match-up. I like Florida to win (they are older and have been there before) but not by 10 points. Alabama will control the line of scrimmage for most of the game until QB John Parker Wilson has to make plays. Look for a costly turnover in the 4th quarter to cost Alabama. Prediction: Florida 27, Alabama 20

Big 12 Championship
#20 Missouri vs #2 Oklahoma
Line: Oklahoma by 17 points
Oklahoma has come up short recently in post-season games earning the nicknames "Choke-lahoma" and "Joke-lahoma". Can Missouri pull the upset? Ummm....no. Oklahoma destroyed Missouri twice last year and looks to do the same again. Missouri is 9-3 and didn't beat anyone of notice all season. They have been called "The Paper Tigers" because of their lack of a signature win despite their gaudy record the last two years. The only thing that Missouri has going for it in this game is the weather. Game time temperature is supposed to be around 28 degrees. I like the "Under" (79), but Oklahoma wins easily. Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Missouri 21

ACC Championship
#17 Boston College vs #25 Virginia Tech
Line: Boston College by 1 point
This could be a repeat of last year. Boston College won in the regular season then lost to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship. Boston College beat Virginia Tech this year, but they will be playing this game with their backup QB. I like Virginia Tech to keep it close and make a play on special teams to win. Prediction: Virginia Tech 17, Boston College 14

Battle of LA
#5 USC vs UCLA
Line: USC by 33 points
Love that both team will be going back to the tradition of wearing the home jersies. That is the way it was done until 1983 and love that it is coming back. As for the game, look for a USC to annihilate UCLA. UCLA has been without its best two QB's all season and it has shown. They are 110th in the nation in offense and that doesn't bode well when going against the best scoring defense in 20 years (Auburn in 1988 last team to give up less than 8 points a game). This one wont be close. Prediction: USC 48, UCLA 3

These results wont leave much suspense come Sunday as the final BCS Standings are announced. The BCS Bowls should look like this:

BCS Championship Game
Florida vs Oklahoma

Rose Bowl
USC vs Penn State

Fiesta Bowl
Texas vs Ohio State

Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs Utah

Orange Bowl
Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech

The only question will be surrounding the Fiesta Bowl. Utah wants in that game because it will be easier for their fans to travel to Phoenix. The Fiesta Bowl might choose them, but it will be hard to ignore the money that Ohio State can bring. Look for money to win out.

Defense Doesn't Win (National) Championships

The old proverb that "Defense wins Championships" isn't being proven this year in college football. The best defense this year probably won't even be given a chance to play for the championship. Everyone in the country is falling in love with the spread offense and the points it can produce. Style points must only mean "points scored". Is winning 61-41 more impressive than 38-3? I will take the team that gives up 3 points. If you haven't guessed yet, USC is the team I am referring too. Here are some mind-blowing stats on USC's defense:

- 86 points allowed (7.8 ppg). #1 in the country
- 210.5 yards allowed per game. #1 in the country
- 86.5 rushing yards allowed per game. #6 in the country
- 2.6 yards per rushing attempt
- 124.0 passing yards allowed per game. #1 in the country
- 81.8 defensive pass efficiency per game. #1 in the country


USC has given up a total of 19 points in 6 home games. That is 3.2 ppg. That is absurd. I don't care if you played 6 1-AA schools, that would still be impressive. USC did this against Ohio State, Oregon, Cal, Arizona State, Washington, and Notre Dame. Ohio State looks BCS bound and Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame are bowl eligible. If Arizona State wins this weekend then they are bowl eligible too. 19 points total! Amazing. The FG in the 4th quarter by Notre Dame is the only 3 points USC has allowed in the 2nd half in 6 home games. 3 points in 6 2nd halves total. Wow.

USC has outscored its oppenents 185-22 in the 2nd half all season. 22 points in 11 games! To break it down: USC has given up 7 points in the 3rd quarter and 15 points in the 4th quarter all season. Unbelievable. No one else in the country can say that.

USC should have at least 9 guys drafted off defense in the 2009 NFL Draft. MLB Rey Maualuga, OLB Brian Cushing, and FS Taylor Mays (JR) are sure fire first rounders. DT Fili Moala, SS Kevin Ellison, OLB Clay Matthews, CB Cary Harris, LB Kaluka Maiava and DE Kyle Moore should all hear their names called with the possibility of 5 in the first 2 rounds. Starting DE Everson Griffen (SO) could also be a 1st round pick when he is eligible.

It is a shame that we won't get to see USC play for the championship.

The Big 12 South Winner Should Be....

After finishing the regular season, the Big 12 South has 3 teams tied at 11-1: Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. The fifth tiebreaker, whoever is ranked highest in the BCS Standings, will be used to determine the winner. Lets compare the 3 teams:

- Texas beat Oklahoma by 10 points on a neutral field.
- Oklahoma beat Texas Tech by 45 points at home
- Texas Tech beat Texas by 6 at home

Due to Texas Tech's loss by 45 points, they aren't going to be ranked high enough in the BCS standings to win the division. They also played 2 1-AA teams in the non-conference schedule and that will hurt their computer ranking. So it is going to come down to Texas and Oklahoma. Texas conveniently wants to just shout that they beat Oklahoma, thus they should be the winner. Well, it is a 3 way tie, not 2. So that argument doesn't work. How can we judge these teams without using head-to-head. The easiest way is to look at 3 factors:

1. Non-Conference Schedule
Texas played Florida Atlantic, at UTEP, Rice, and Arkansas. No ranked teams, nothing to take note of. Oklahoma played Chattanooga, Cincinnati (Big East winner and BCS Bound), at Washington, and TCU (currently ranked 14th in BCS and most likely higher later this afternoon). Advantage: Oklahoma by a long shot.

2. Point Differential in Big 12 Games against Common Opponents
These teams shared 5 common opponents in the Big 12 this year: Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas. Oklahoma outscored these 5 teams by 148 points. Texas outscored them by 90. Advantage: Oklahoma.

3. Road Wins of Note
Texas went 3-1 in road games beating UTEP, Colorado, and Kansas on the road (lost to Texas Tech). Oklahoma went 5-0 in road games beating Washington, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State by far is the best road win of any team in the Big 12. Advantage: Oklahoma.

Using these 3 factors (can't use head-to-head because of a 3 way tie) Oklahoma is clearly the team that should represent the Big 12 South next weekend in Kansas City. Sorry Texas. Sorry Texas Tech. Oklahoma moves on.

The Schedule Police

Even though every other division in college football has a playoff to determine a champion, Division I keeps hiding its head in the sand and trumping up the Bowl System. So coming to the conclusion that a playoff is years away, there is something that the BCS can do to even out the playing field. The BCS should have certain rules in place that would help the voters determine how good a teams are. In the past couple of years, teams have started to figure out that scheduling is a huge part of the BCS formula. Why play tough opponents or road games in the non-conference portion of the schedule that can be controlled? The reason is so that the voters can get a better opinion on how good teams are. The BCS should institute "The Schedule Police". This body would ensure that in order for a team to play in the BCS Championship Game or in a BCS Game as an at-large team, it has followed 3 scheduling rules (conference automatic bids wouldn't have to follow these rules).

The Schedule Police 3 Rules:
1. Don't play any 1-AA (FCS) opponents - if you want to be one of the best teams in the country, you should play 12 FBS teams. No questions asked.
2. Don't play 8 home games - Hard to judge a team that plays 4 non-conference home games. Again, to be the best you should have to play more than 4 road games.
3. Play at least one non-conference game against a BCS Conference team - Voters need all the help they can get and playing 4 non-conference games against Sun Belt or WAC teams isn't helping them.

I would love to see these 3 rules instituted. It would be awesome just from the standpoint of how fans would react to a their teams schedule. A team that schedules a 1-AA team would be telling their fans "We don't think we are good enough to play for the Championship". It isn't asking much for teams to follow these 3 simple rules.

The following Top 15 teams would be eligible for the BCS Championship Game or an at-large bid using these 3 rules: 1. Alabama, 2. Texas, and 5. USC. That is it. The BCS needs to get involved in how teams schedule. Texas Tech, Florida State, and Georgia Tech played 2 1-AA schools this year. That is downright absurd. They shouldn't be rewarded for that. Florida State and LSU play 8 home games this year. That is a huge advantage that might be taken into factor by the voters should they be talking about playing for the BCS Championship Game, but it also helps the conference out tremendously because the voters most likely don't look at that when ranking the teams. If that means moving Florida State up 5-8 spots in the polls because they played 8 home games and 2 games against 1-AA schools, that is unfair to the other teams trying to get ranked. The BCS, if it is going to continue to exist, needs to make some changes and they need to start with forcing teams to schedule decent opponents.

LeBron and The Big Apple

Let the mourning in the city of Cleveland begin. There is still hope that Lebron James and his current Cavaliers can win the NBA title in the next couple of years. If they don't, Kleenex will make a killing.

There have been rumors that LeBron James was going to be a Knick in 2010 for some time now. LeBron was very open about his liking of US Olympic and Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni. The Knicks did their part by trading Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph this past week. These two trades now give the Knicks more than $27 million of cap space for the summer of 2010. While other players like Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, and Steve Nash will be available, LeBron James is the big fish. These trades give the Knicks thoughts of not only LBJ, but also the ability to sign another marquee free agent in 2010 to pair him with. Would another player take a little less to play in NY with the best player in the game? The Knicks sure hope so.

It just so happened that LeBron and his Cleveland Cavaliers headed to Madison Square Garden on Tuesday to play the Knicks. While the crowd chanted "We want LeBron", LBJ did his own part by breaking out his new shoe appropriately called "The Big Apple Shoes". Here is a look at them:


Where these shoes a signal to the city of New York that LeBron may soon be coming? I think so. Why else would Nike and LBJ go through with the promotion? Either LBJ and Nike is playing the city for fools or they must think the public is stupid. I don't think that is the case. New York provides LBJ an opportunity to become a global icon. Also, there are rumors that just by playing for a team in LA or NY, Nike will give LeBron a bonus of $50 million. Looks like an easy decision to me. The city of New York should get ready for the inevitable...LeBron James in a Knicks jersey.

Could the media be right?

I keep hearing on TV that my beloved USC Trojans are "down" this year. I can understand the love for Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Florida ahead of us this year even though I don't believe it. What I can't understand, is hearing that Texas Tech should be in the National Championship Game ahead of USC if Oklahoma were to lose this week to Oklahoma State. Seriously? A team that just lost by 44 would win the Big 12 South and play for the Big 12 Championship and thus automatically be in the BCS Championship game. They lost by 44. Texas Tech also played 2 1-AA teams this year. Should they be rewarded for that? Get ready for another blowout if this happens. Sorry media. Here are some reasons that USC should be in the BCS Championship Game:

- USC never gets blown out.
- 79-9 last 7 years
- 9 losses by combined 36 points!
- 3-0 vs ranked opponents this year outscoring them 96-16
- #1 defense in country
- #2 point differential in country
- 5-1 in BCS Games
- 11 wins 6 straight seasons (soon to be 7)

USC is second in the nation in point differential at 30.1 points per game. How does that compare to the last 7 USC teams, including the undefeated 2005 team?

2002 17.2
2003 22.7
2004 25.2
2005 26.3
2006 15.3
2007 16.6
2008 30.1

This years team is the best in the Pete Carroll era in point differential. Must be a bad year for the mighty Trojans! I don't see how USC is "down" this year. Must be the offense then. The media thinks the reason is because of the offense. How does USC points per game look for the last 7 years?

2002 35.8
2003 41.1
2004 38.2
2005 49.1
2006 30.5
2007 32.6
2008 38.4

This years team is the third highest scoring team of the Pete Carroll era. While the offense has been inconsistent at times, the talent is obviously still there.

I am biased, but I still think USC deserves a shot to play for the title if Oklahoma loses this week. Who wants to watch another blowout BCS Championship Game? Oklahoma has lost 4 straight BCS Games but should they win out, they will play the SEC Champion for the title. If they should lose though, the Trojans are the team that needs to be there!

Updated BCS Projections (11/24)

Wow, another exciting weekend in college football. With only 2 more weeks some things are starting to become more clear. Some teams have already qualified (Penn State and Utah) for the BCS while some are making their push. Lets look at the top 5 teams in the BCS and their chances to play in the BCS championship game and also my projected BCS game participants. To get a better look at each team, lets look at each teams Strength of Schedule (games played to date) and point differential per game (doesn't include games vs 1-AA teams).

BCS Standings
1. Alabama (SOS: 65, PD: 16.2) - The last undefeated team in a BCS conference. Having the 65th ranked schedule in the country and not playing Florida in the regular season has helped tremendously. Alabama has won every game but have done so with the least margin of any of the top 7 teams. Factor in that they haven't lost and it makes their PD look that much worse. The problem for Alabama is that they will play Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Auburn, lose to Florida

2. Texas (SOS: 5, PD: 24.0) - Texas was thought to be in a good position because they beat Oklahoma earlier in the year and would likely win a tiebreaker in a 3-way tie in the Big 12 South. Oklahoma may have screwed that up with a complete blow-out of Texas Tech. Texas has played a very tough schedule and their point differential looks very good when the SOS is factored in. If they don't win play for the Big 12 Championship, will they be chosen to play for the BCS Championship?
Prediction: 11-1 beat Texas A&M

3. Oklahoma (SOS: 25, PD: 26.7) - Oklahoma's thrashing of Texas Tech may have swayed enough voters to put them in a position to play for the Big 12 Championship. They have scored 60+ points 3 games in a row. With a tough game at Oklahoma State this weekend, their SOS will rise and probably put them in the BCS Top 2. They have lost 4 straight BCS games so they better hope that doesn't enter into the voters minds.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Oklahoma State and Missouri

4. Florida (SOS: 32, PD: 32.8) - Florida has beaten up teams lately in the SEC and their PD of 32.8 is very impressive. The SOS will rise as well with games at Florida State and the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. If they win out, they will play for the BCS Championship.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Florida State and Alabama

5. USC (SOS: 30, PD: 30.1) - USC has the second highest PD in the nation (only giving up 8.3 ppg) and played a relatively tough schedule so far. The problem, Notre Dame and UCLA are the last teams and wont give them enough leverage with the voters unless some upsets occur above them.
Prediction: 11-1 beat Notre Dame and UCLA

7. Texas Tech (SOS: 19, PD: 16.2) - Can a team that lost by 44 be considered one of the top 2 teams in the country? I don't think so, but they still have a shot to play for the BCS Championship. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech wins the Big 12 South. The winner of the Big 12 has already been put in the BCS Championship Game by the media, but did this weekend change that perception if the winner is Texas Tech? Texas Tech would need to be pushed hard by the voters to get over Texas, USC, and Utah. Would add another bullet to the playoff proponents and further make the BCS the laughing stock of sports if it were to happen.
Prediction: 11-1 beat Baylor.

Alright using my predictions here are the BCS Bowl Participants as I see them this week. Keep in mind the BCS selection rules. Rather than write them all out, here is a link -

BCS Championship Game
BCS 1 vs BCS 2
Oklahoma vs Florida
Creates more controversy since Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head.

Rose Bowl
PAC-10 vs Big 10
USC vs Penn State
Oregon State has a tough game at home against Oregon in the Civil War. I think Oregon wins and thus, the PAC-10 loses a team in the BCS.

Fiesta Bowl
Big 12 vs At-Large
Texas vs Ohio State
Fiesta gets to choose an at-large team first this year. Ohio State has been good to them recently (2003, 2004, 2006). Utah (2005) and Boise State (2007) has as well. It will come down to money and Ohio State will bring that.

Sugar Bowl
SEC vs At-Large
Alabama vs Utah
USC might be a possibility if Oregon State wins (Fiesta would have to pass them up with Utah) and would create a great matchup. The Sugar Bowl will pit a Non-BCS team against a SEC team for the second year in a row.

Orange Bowl
ACC vs At-Large (usually Big East, but doesn't have to be)
Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati

Cant wait to next week to see how this has completely blown up again.

E"SEC"PN

I was displeased with the news yesterday that ESPN will have the television rights to the BCS games until 2014. First and foremost, this weakens any stance of a playoff system. ESPN has also reportedly put a moratorium on all columnists and radio personalities from even mentioning the word "playoffs" when it comes to college football. That is a little extreme, but I guess they can control their employees. Note to ESPN, just because your network is prohibited from mentioning it doesn't mean that the topic will just go away.

Being the PAC-10 guy that I am, this makes me even more furious. It has been difficult enough living on the East Coast the last 5 years and never even watching PAC-10 teams play unless USC was involved. Factor in the time zone difference and people on the East Coast would be lucky to watch 5 minutes of Oregon or California every year. People on the East Coast would be shocked to hear that Oregon State has won 19 games the last two seasons and have won 4 consecutive bowl games. No wonder they are generally an afterthought to mid-level SEC teams that are constantly on national TV. Back on topic....

I have always thought there was some bias on ESPN since they televise a lot of SEC games. They want to constantly promote the league so their ratings will increase. With both ESPN and CBS broadcasting games, essentially every SEC football game will be televised nationally. Well, I came across this note on collegefootballnews.com yesterday and it hit home for me:

"ESPN appears to be on the verge of getting the rights for the BCS games for 2011 and beyond. Meanwhile, the network has ponied up $2.5 billion for the rights to televise the SEC games other than the one CBS will snag for its game of the week. That means ESPN will be the equivalent of the SEC Network during football seasons. As if the $55 million a year the SEC will be getting from the deal ins’t enough, let’s just say it’ll be in the Boo-Ya’s best interest if the league just so happens to be promoted all the time when it comes to lobbying efforts to get an SEC team into the national title. Also, be prepared for any and all critical thought when it comes to BCS discussion to be gone from the Worldwide Leader, and for any hint of the P-word, be it for an eight-team tourney or a plus-one format, to be squashed like Harold Reynolds."

This should bother anyone who is a fan of a team in another conference. ESPN will be pushing hard on a weekly basis to get SEC teams ranked higher since that will increase their ratings. If you think I am the only one bothered by this, consider these words from Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops during the 2004 season:

"I'm aware of what their contracts are with. Whether people are directed in certain ways, I'm not going to say that. I think all the people ought to be aware who their contracts are with and what some of their agendas may be. I just understand TV and what happens with programs. Ratings matter. I think it's fair to say, too, they have a contract with the SEC. I'm fully aware of that. I can't be the only one who recognizes that. It's impossible to remove agendas. They have producers and ratings. I don't know what impact they have, but I'm sure they have some."

For those of us who can't take any more of ESPN shoving the SEC down our throats, it's only just begun.

The Perfect Season

While some people are focusing on the undefeated Tennessee Titans and their quest to go 16-0, I would like to focus on something even more rare. The Detroit Lions are on pace to have the worst record in NFL history. The current record is held by the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 0-14. Can the Lions do the unthinkable and go 0-16? I sure hope so. This is a team that drafted a QB (Drew Stanton) in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft but have recently signed Dante Culpepper to be the starting QB even though he hadnt played in an NFL game all season and wasn't even invited to training camp by any of the NFL's 32 teams. This is a team that drafted WR's in top of the draft 4 out of 5 years. This team has became the laughing-stock of the league under the direction of Matt Millen and finishing 2008 winless would be the perfect way to cap the Millen era. Here are the last 6 games for the Lions and the percentage I think they have to win that game.

Week 12 at home vs Tampa Bay (7-3) - 10%. Tampa Bay's defense and ability to not turn the ball over should be enough to beat the Lions. Tampa Bay should be able to run the ball all day and get after Dante Culpepper and force some turnovers.

Week 13 at home vs Tennessee (10-0) - 0%. Its going to be tough for Detroit to get anything going against Tennessee. Tennessee will pound the ball against Detroit's soft front seven. Again the defense of the Titans should be able to tee off on Dante Culpepper and force turnovers. The game is on Thanksgiving Day only 4 days after the Tampa Bay game which wont give the Lions defenders much time to recover from the beating they will take vs the Bucs and it will be a long day.

Week 14 at home vs Minnesota (5-5) - 25%. Third straight home game, but again its going to be tough to beat the Vikings and Adrian Peterson. After getting beat up by the Bucs and Titans, the last thing the Lions defense will want to see is the beast that is Adrian Peterson. The first meeting in Minnesota was a close game, but this one might not be. Throw in the fact that the Vikins will desperately need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive and all signs point to another Lions loss.

Week 15 on road vs Indianapolis (6-4) - 0%. Unless Peyton Manning is injured and not playing in this game, the Lions will have no chance to win. The Colts will be fighting for a wild card spot and wont lose. Detroit is giving up 30.8 points per game and this should be a field day for the Colts offense.

Week 16 at home vs New Orleans (5-5) - 33%. By this time the Saints may be out of the wild card race, but they will keep fighting. Again Detroit's defense will be exploited by the Saints offense. The silver lining for the Lions is that the Saints give up 24.9 points per game and can be vunerable to the pass. In the end, the Saints will have too much offensive firepower for the Lions defense.

Week 17 at Green Bay (5-5) - 25%. The only reason the percentage is so high on this game is because the NFC North Champion should be locked into the 4th seed of the playoffs by the last week of the season. There is a chance that the Packers will not benefit from winning this game if they have the division wrapped up by Week 17. If they don't and the Packer need to win, the chances would diminish greatly for a Lions win.

The schedule is not favorable down the stretch for a Lions win. Every one of their last six games should have playoff implications. While this gives the Lions motivation to be a spoiler, it also means the competition should be ready to play as well. I don't see the Lions winning any of these games and finishing the season "perfect". 0-16 here we come!

Hot Stove Hitters

We already looked at the top 5 pitchers on the free agent market, so lets look at the top 5 hitters.

Manny Ramirez - Manny is looking to cash in after a great run with the Dodgers. Will someone give him a 4 year, $100 million deal? Will he go back to his hometown of New York City? The best right-handed hitter of his era, will be in high demand. Ultimately, I don't see either NY team paying him the amount per year that he wants because of their pitching issues. The Dodgers are on the record for a 2-3 year deal at $25 million per year. The one team no one is talking about that could swoop in is the Angels. Manny loved LA and he could DH some with the Angels. The Angels probably will move away from Teixeira if the negotiations drag and could instantly upgrade their biggest weakness (the ability to hit in the postseason). Prediction: Angels - 4 years, $88 million

Mark Teixiera - He will be the hitter in the highest demand this off-season. He is a switch-hitting RBI machine who also is a Gold Glove first baseman. While the Angels would love to keep him, his agent Scott Boras likes to drag out negotiations and the Angels have already stated they wont wait long. I expect the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles as the main suitors. Teixiera has said in the past he would love to play for his hometown O's (he is from Annapolis, MD). While the Yankees will probably offer the most money, the O's will make a strong push to bring him home. If the O's allow him to go to one of their rivals, then it would be a major blow. Prediction: Yankees - 7 years, $155 million

Adam Dunn - This one name not being bantered about a whole bunch for a guy that hits 40 HR's every year. His low batting average and below average defensive skills could be the main reason. He is a run producer with power so he will get paid. He is the only player to hit 40 HR's every year since 2004 in the majors. He is an AL player so he should draw most interest from teams in that league with the ability to DH him. Prediction: Indians - 5 years, $75 million

Orlando Hudson - Another player whose sum in more than the parts. He is a gamer who also is one of the best defensive second baseman in the majors. While he doesn't have above average power or speed, he is a complete player. His injuries the last two years could spark concerns about his durability. The White Sox and Mets seem to be the most logical destinations. The White Sox have a need and can slide Alexi Ramirez over to shortstop. Prediction: White Sox - 4 years, $40 million

Pat Burrell - The Phillies were supposedly after Matt Holliday, but with news that he was traded to Oakland yesterday, the World Champions will focus on re-signing him. A few teams will be looking for some offense at LF this off-season and could drive up the price on Burrell. The Angels, Mets, Yankees, Indians, and Phillies will be in play depending on where Manny ends up. Prediction: Phillies - 4 years, $48 million

Lets see what happens. I hope I am right on a couple of them.

Updated BCS Projections

After another exciting weekend of college football the picture to the BCS National Championship game gets clearer. Some things to consider....Although Texas Tech and Alabama control their own destiny to this game, I don't see either making it. The most interesting subplot is who wins the Big 12 South? Can two teams from the same division in the same conference play for the BCS Championship game? If Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma (which I think they will), then there might be a three-way tie on top of the Big 12 South. The tiebreaker that will decide the division will be the highest ranked team in the BCS. Hard to see Texas losing that one since they beat Oklahoma and lost the earliest. Here are my updated BCS Projections:

BCS National Championship Game
Texas vs Florida

Rose Bowl
USC vs Penn St.

Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs Ohio St.*

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs Utah*

Orange Bowl
Pitt vs Florida St.

The two most interesting races might be for the second Big 12 bid and the last at-large bid. Assuming Texas wins the tiebreaker to play in the Big 12 Championship game, that leaves Oklahoma and Texas Tech with one loss. Oklahoma would have beaten Texas Tech in my scenario but that doesn't mean that the Fiesta Bowl will take them over Texas Tech. The Fiesta Bowl might feel more comfortable will a proven program since they will most likely end up with Utah or Boise St. as the opponent. As for the last at-large bid, this one will be interesting as well. If Boise St. and Utah finish undefeated and in the top 12 of the final rankings, only 1 is guaranteed a spot. Utah will most likely be ranked higher in the final BCS standings and thus earn the automatic bid. Will the Sugar Bowl select Boise St. as the opponent for the SEC team? The other options are limited. The Big 12 and SEC can only send 2 teams. The PAC-10, ACC, and Big East most likely wont have another team ranked high enough to be eligible. That leaves only Boise St. and Ohio St. to choose from. Ohio St. has been crushed by SEC teams recently. Boise St. beat Oklahoma in one of the most memorable bowl games in recent history. Ultimately, I think Ohio State's history and ability to bring big money to the game will win out. Of course, if Oregon State wins out they will be in the Rose Bowl. That will allow USC to take the final at-large bid and slide over to the Sugar Bowl. The last couple weeks should be exciting.

The Hot Stove

It is getting close to Major League Baseball Free Agency, so lets take a look at the top guys available and guess where they will end up. (It will be interesting to see how many teams are willing to add years to these monstrous contracts in order to get them inked. I think the length of the contracts shortens a little from what the players are seeking.)

Pitchers
C.C. Sabathia - A lot of "experts" see the Yankees ultimately getting the biggest FA fish. While, they will have the most money, there are rumors that C.C. wants to go back to his home state of California. If the Dodgers can't resign Manny, look for them to get into the C.C. sweepstakes. The Dodgers will probably lose Derek Lowe and Brad Penny so they will need a SP. Prediction: Dodgers - 6 years, $140 million

A.J Burnett - Walked away from the final 2 years of his previous contract to become a FA. The Yankees saw a lot of him in the AL East. The Yanks are desperate for starting pitching and if they miss out on C.C. this one should be a lock. Prediction: Yankees - 4 years, $60 million

Derek Lowe - Very solid pitcher the last couple of years. He is looking to head back to the East Coast and will have plenty of suitors available there. Might be best value on FA market. The Mets will be looking to replace Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez in the rotation. Lowe would fit in great between Santana and Pelfrey. Prediction: Mets - 3 years, $39 million

Ben Sheets - Injuries have really hurt his value over the last couple of years. Teams love his stuff, but his lack of innings and trips the DL will bring his value down. Prediction: Astros - 4 years, $60 million

Francisco Rodriguez - Might be toughest guy to predict. The Angels love him, but haven't shown any signs of meeting his demands of 5 years and $75 million. With Shields and Arredondo ready to take over late inning duties, closer isn't a huge need for the Angels. Most big market clubs already are set at closer. The Cardinals are going to need bullpen help and could be the spot. A team that could surprise and make a run is the Tampa Bay Rays. Joe Maddon has history with K-Rod from his time in Anaheim and this signing would signal to the rest of the league that the Rays are here to stay. Prediction: Cardinals - 5 years, $60 million

Monday we look at the top 5 hitters.

USC vs Alabama

I keep hearing how the SEC schedule is what separates them from the other conferences. I was curious how Alabama's schedule would look next to USC's. What is the record of all Alabama's opponents and what is the record of all USC's oppenents? This obviously leaves out a lot of subjective measures (ie how many opponents wins are quality, how many opponents wins came against 1-AA schools, how many ranked teams were played) but I just wanted the cold hard records. So here are the facts.

Alabama
Clemson............4-4
Tulane.............2-6
Western Kentucky...2-7
Arkansas...........4-5
Georgia............7-2
Kentucky...........6-3
Ole Miss...........5-4
Tennessee..........3-6
Arkansas State.....4-4
LSU................6-2
Mississippi State..3-6
Auburn.............4-5
Total..............50-54

USC
Virginia...........5-4
Ohio State.........7-2
Oregon State.......5-3
Oregon.............6-2
Arizona State......2-6
Washington.........0-8
Arizona............5-3
Washington State...1-8
California.........6-2
Stanford...........5-4
Notre Dame.........5-3
UCLA...............3-5
Total..............50-51

Interesting that is was so close and actually USC's opponents record was slightly better even with Washington and Washington state a combined 1-16.

NBA Predictions

Thought I would mix it up and get away from College Football for a day or so. It's time to predict the NBA playoffs! The good thing about blogging is that everyone can check this out come April and see how many I got right. I always love ripping the media when they are wrong, but at least they are out there with their predictions. Lets see how close I can get.

Western Conference
1. LA Lakers* - Too much depth plus Kobe = #1 seed.
2. New Orleans* - Best PG in the league.
3. Utah* - Maybe not 3rd best team, but will win the Northwest Division.
4. Houston - Wouldn't want to play them, but injuries are concern.
5. Phoenix - Can Shaq or Nash make it through 82 games?
6. Dallas - Kidd trade didn't make them better.
7. San Antonio - Ginobli injury drives them down the to the 7th seed.
8. Portland - Oden is out for now, but good young nucleus should sneak them in.

Eastern Conference
1. Boston* - Best trio in conference.
2. Cleveland* - LeBron has some help, but is it enough?
3. Orlando* - Dwight Howard should help them win the South.
4. Detroit - Can Iverson mesh and play the role as well as Chauncey?
5. Toronto - Calderon becoming an All-Star caliber PG and better team than players.
6. Chicago - Rose looks good and team has ability to score they haven't had in years.
7. Philadelphia - Elton Brand should help them get in playoffs.
8. Atlanta - Good young players that are getting used to winning some games.
* denotes Division Champ

First Round
LA Lakers over Portland
New Orleans over San Antonio
Utah over Dallas
Phoenix over Houston
Boston over Atlanta
Cleveland over Philadelphia
Orlando over Chicago
Toronto over Detroit

Second Round
LA Lakers over Phoenix
New Orleans over Utah
Boston over Toronto
Cleveland over Orlando

Conference Finals
LA Lakers over New Orleans
Cleveland over Boston

Finals
LA Lakers over Cleveland

The NBA would love that Finals match up. Kobe vs LeBron. I think the Lakers would have too much depth and firepower in the front court for the Cavaliers to handle. Only time will tell.

PAC-10 Gets the Shaft From Media

Another wild weekend in college football. I think I have finally figured out how a conference can become "strong". I have noticed a trend and am here to call out the media who cant figure this out. Here they are:

6 ways to be the "best" in media's eye's:
1. Have conference schedule as many 1-AA teams as possible
2. Have every team in conference play at least 3 home non-conference games
3. Have conferenece play the least amount of ranked non-conference games as possible
4. Have conference schedule bottom feeders early to inflate records of better teams
5. Schedule all 4 non-conference games before any conference games
6. Be in a 12 team conference so that you get to skip better teams in other division (Must be nice for Florida and Alabama to not have to play this year)

(Before you start crying, I understand Florida would have to play Alabama in the SEC championship game. I am not disputing that can hurt a teams chances to play in the National Championship Game. But it is convienent for Georgia and LSU to use the SEC Championship Game as an excuse to not play anyone out of conference when it wont affect them this year. But I digress.)

Before you know it your conference has multiple teams ranked and since they got to a point of being ranked highly, they are regarded as better than a team that started 5-3 even if both end up 9-3. I have some numbers to prove that scheduling is almost all that matters in college football.

I believe that the PAC-10 is being held to a different standard than the rest of the nation. Having to play the 9th conference game is a huge disadvantage to the "media" credibility of the league. I already proved that in an earlier post (highest possible winning percentage of all teams is .625 vs .667 or higher for every other conference). Also, I decided to look into the games that they can control...ie non-conference games. The PAC-10 has to start conference games before everyone else and thus wont have as many 4-0 or 5-0 teams early which hurts the conference in the eye's of the media. If Oregon doesnt get to 5-0 or 6-0 because they play USC and Boise State early then even if they end up 9-3 they wont be ranked as high as a team that started 7-0 and ended 9-3.

I found some shocking numbers that would to me, proves the PAC-10 is a little better than given credit for and the Big 12 and SEC aren't quite as good as believed. Here they are:

Out of conference records
SEC.......32-7....821
Big 12....38-10...792
ACC.......33-10...767
Big 10....31-11...738
Big East..26-12...684
PAC-10....13-16...448

Now that is what he media reports and what makes people believe the PAC-10 is awful this year. Now time to look inside the numbers..

Opp. Winning % (I took out 1-AA records)
PAC-10....156-93....627
ACC.......165-126...567
Big East..150-131...534
Big 10....156-138...531
Big 12....159-165...491
SEC.......155-176...468

Shocking to see that the SEC has the worst non-conference opponent's winning percentage (I was being sarcastic). The PAC-10 by far has the most difficult out of conference games. It looks like some Big 12 and SEC teams fattened up on some easy wins. Even more evidence....

Games vs 1-AA teams...
ACC......14-0
Big 12...10-0
Big 10...8-0 (With 1 more to play)
SEC......7-0 (With 2 more to play)
Big East.7-0
PAC-10...2-0

Looks like every other conference is loading up free wins (unless you ask Michigan) against 1-AA teams. Looks like the PAC-10 should join suit and then maybe they would get some more love in the media. Interesting how playing lesser opponents means you are a better conference. Even more evidence....


Games vs BCS Opponent's (6 Major Conference Teams plus Notre Dame)...

..........Total..BCS...Non-BCS
Big East..38/40..8-7...18-5
Big 12....48/48..6-8...32-2
SEC.......39/48..5-6...26-1
Big 10....42/44..6-7...25-4
ACC.......43/48..11-7..22-3
PAC-10....29/30..5-8....8-8

Without looking at the actual schedules, it appears that the Big 12 and SEC are again loading up with wins against teams that aren't in BCS conferences. The PAC-10 looks pathetic at 8-8 against Non-BCS teams until you look further into the numbers. Even more evidence....

Out of Conference on Road and vs Ranked Opponents Records...

.........Total..Ranked..Road vs Ranked
Big 12....48.....2-1......0-1
SEC.......39.....0-3......0-3
Big East..38.....0-5......0-3
Big 10....42.....0-5......0-2
ACC.......43.....1-3......0-1
PAC-10....29.....2-10.....0-6

The PAC-10 has played Penn State, Oklahoma, Utah, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Ohio State, TCU, Georgia, BYU (twice), Michigan State, and Maryland. The Big 12 only played 3/48 games vs ranked opponent's. The SEC has only played 3/39 games. The PAC-10 has played 12/29 including 6 on the road which is more than the SEC and Big 12 combined even though they only played 1/3 the number of total games. Nice to see the SEC is 0-3 vs Ranked Non-Conference opponent's. I am tired of the chest beating and crying that they are the best. If you are the best, then play someone and prove it rather than talk. They are starting to sound an awful lot like the old Republican Party...couldn't help myself with the election tomorrow. YES WE CAN!!!!

That is a lot of numbers to sort through so I will wrap it up with this. Stop bashing the PAC-10. At least they try to play competitive games and don't play 8 home games. The PAC-10 is already at a disadvantage due to the 9th conference game (which lowers the possible total winning percentage to .625 and makes them start conference play earlier, thus lowering the records out of the gate and making it less likely they have more ranked teams), they play ranked opponent's out of conference, they play tough road games out of conference, and they actually travel. They aren't the best of the 6 BCS conferences, but they are definitely not the worst. I guess if Washington would schedule Idaho, Wyoming, and San Diego State instead of Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and BYU it would make USC a better team. Not sure how that makes sense, but that is the system we have. It sucks by the way.

Just to bash the mighty Big 12 South for some fun I thought I would show you the 16 NCG for Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.

Texas - Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Arkansas, and Rice. Rice is the only team with a winning record.

Texas Tech - Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, and UMASS. No teams with winning records and 2 1-AA teams. Way to schedule up. Shocking they started the season 4-0.

Oklahoma - Chattanooga, Cincinnati, Washington, and TCU. Give them some credit (although playing 1-AA Chattanooga is a joke). Cincinnati is solid, Washington is usually decent, and TCU is very good this year.

Oklahoma State - Washington State, Houston, Missouri State, and Troy. Again, what's with the 1-AA teams? Sad, but Troy might be best team on that schedule. Shocking again they started 4-0.

I think all 4 of those teams are good, but going 16-0 out of conference is helping their perception because their schedules are backloaded (except for Texas). Reminds me a litle of Vanderbilt when people were stupidly buying into them a month ago. By the way, I think Texas utlimately wins the divison over Oklahoma due to the earlier win in Dallas.

Alabama is no #2

I am supposed to believe Alabama is the second best team in the country and they are only 22.5 point favorites at home this weekend against a 4-3 Sun Belt team (Arkansas State) who lost to Memphis and Louisiana-Lafayette on the road this season. I think Vegas is on to something. I dont know the lines for sure, but I would imagine Penn State, USC, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Florida, Georgia, and probably a handful of other schools would be favored by more than 22.5. I dont think Vegas, much like myself, expect Alabama to finish 13-0 and play for the BCS Championship.

By the way, did anyone notice the SEC West is way down this year. Auburn is a 6.5 point underdog on the road against Ole Miss. Arkansas is a 7 point home dog against Tulsa. You read that right. Did I mention LSU has given up more than 50 points each of the last two weeks?

Non-Conference Souffle

I decided to do a little research on the non-conference schedules for the 6 BCS Conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, PAC-1o, and SEC). Does a conference get helped in perception of their records by getting fat on cupcakes? Does a conference get hurt by scheduling oppenents that are actually challenging? How does the number of conference games affect a teams chances of being "good" in the media's eyes? I have crunched the numbers and come to some conclusions. Here are some things to know about the 6 conferences:

ACC - If they were to schedule 48 cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for a winning percentage of .667. (This is calculated by taking the number of teams (12) x number of conference games (8). This gives a record of 48-48 in conference. Then, add number of non-conference games (4) x (12 teams) = 48. If they win all of those games they are 96-48 for .667).

Big 10 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 88-44 for .667. This is lower because there are 11 teams in this conference.

Big 12 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for .667.

Big East - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 68-28 for .708. This is lower because there are 8 teams in this conference. Does the .708 possible winning percentage help the Big East? I would think it would given the opportunity to schedule a 5th non-conference game and get as many "wins" as they can.

PAC-10 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 75-45 for .625. This is lower because there are 10 teams and they play 9 conferences games. Does this hurt the conference? I don't see how it couldn't. The extra conference game kills them and worse, takes away an opportunity to fatten up on weak competition out of conference. If they play 30 1-AA schools out of conference, they are still going to have an overall worse record than every other conference.

SEC - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for .667.

What does this mean? The teams that play in 12 team conferences have an inherent advantage over the other 3 conferences. Before you get all fired up, remember that I am not talking about every team's chances to get to the BCS Championship Game. I am talking about the perceived "strength" of a conference based on the win-loss records of the members of the league. If a conference has more teams ranked teams, or teams with winning records, the league will be perceived as stronger. Teams in 12 team conferences don't play every team in that conference. Does it help the strength of the conference if a top team doesn't play 2 other top teams in that conference? Of course it does. A team can go 8-4 without winning a significant game. Just schedule 4 home cupcaked before conference games start. All you have to do is hope you skip a good team in conference play and win the games against the bottom feeders of the conference. An 8-4 team in the SEC, Big 12, or ACC is most likely to end up ranked in the 20's, thus making the conference stand out as having more ranked teams.

The 3 conferences that have to play a league championship game will affect the schedule, but that only affects 2 of the 12 teams in the conference. If the entire 12 use the excuse to schedule down the non-conference competition because of the conference championship game, that is a lame excuse because those 4 games don't have any outcome on who plays in the game. Only the conference records matter. As you can see, I believe there is a built-in bias towards the teams that play in a 12 team conference. The more teams ranked in your conference, the more an "elite" team gets ranked higher by the media for beating those teams. Is an 8-4 team in the SEC that has a strength of schedule of 60 (out of 120 teams) better than a 7-5 PAC-10 school with a SOS of 15? I dont think so, but just about everyone in the media would resoundingly say "YES". I have a lot more on this subject, so be sure to check back tomorrow for some stunning numbers regarding the Non-Conference Schedules of the 6 BCS conference. Who plays the toughest schedule? Who plays the weakest? Who plays only at home? Who plays games on the road? Tomorrow you will be shocked by the true numbers, not what the media wants you to believe.

BCS Possibilities

Right now, I only see 6 teams that are legitimate BCS Championship game material. Here they are in the rank of how I see them ending the season:

1. Texas - They will beat Texas Tech this weekend in Lubbock and cruise to the Big 12 Championship game. They will beat Missouri in that game to finish the season undefeated and in the BCS Championship game.

2. Penn State - They will win their last three games and play Texas for cyrstal football in Miami. They might face a challenge against Michigan State, but I see them prevailing.

3. Florida - The "Cocktail Party" in Jacksonville will determine the SEC champion. Florida will beat Georgia (wonder how Florida will respond to last year's field storming by the Dogs) and play Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Florida will win, but be left out in the end due to the 2 undefeated teams above and end up in the Sugar Bowl.

4. USC - USC will run the table and most likely end up in the Rose Bowl again vs Ohio State for a rematch no one wants to see. USC also plays in Columbus early next year so it will be a game the players probably dont want either. Oregon State controls their own destiny in the Pac-10 but has a brutal stretch to navigate. I would like to see Oregon State run the table and thus set up a possible SEC-USC game.

5. Alabama - They should be able to pound LSU and win that game (might not matter as they are 2 games ahead in the SEC West), but it will be tough as Nick Saban makes his return to Baton Rouge. Alabama is got to be rooting hard for Georgia this weekend to set up a rematch in the SEC Championship game. Should they lose twice, it will be interesting to see if they can get an at-large bid over Georgia.

6. Georgia - Should they beat Florida, they will have revenge on their minds should they meet up with Alabama again. Alabama seemed physically far superior in the previous matchup and I would expect that to show up again.

The others:

Oklahoma - They need Texas to lose twice just to get into the Big 12 Championship game. That wont happen, meaning the Sooners could be left at 11-1 and hoping they arent the 2008 version of the 2007 Georgia Bulldogs. It is hard to make a case as one of the top 2 teams in the country, when you arent even the best team in your 6 team division.

Texas Tech - Tough remaining schedule with games against Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. Not to mention a matchup with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game should they run the table. Dont see it happening.

Projected BCS Selections:

BCS Championship Game
Texas vs Penn St.

Rose Bowl
USC vs Ohio St*
(Rose Bowl gets second shot to replace team because Penn St. is in BCS Championship Game. Ohio State would be the choice most likely due to the Rose Bowl strictly wanting any Pac-10 or Big 10 teams eligible for at-large bids)

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma* vs Alabama*
(Oklahoma logical choice to replace Texas. Fiesta gets first selection of at-large bids for Bowls not affected by BCS Championship Game and selects SEC Runner-up. Utah might be a thought, but tough to pass up Alabama's tradition).

Sugar Bowl
Florida vs West Virginia
(It would be nice to see Bowden play WVU but I dont see the Sugar passing up West Virginia for Utah)

Orange Bowl
Florida State vs Utah

*at-large bids