The Holmes Computer Rankings

The top teams are still undefeated, but my data doesn't agree with the real BCS. My computers continue to think that Florida isn't one of the top 3 teams in the country. Florida has only beaten 1 ranked team all year and is struggling to separate from mid-level SEC teams. Meanwhile, TCU continues to clobber the opposition. I know the MWC isn't the SEC, but they both leagues have 3 ranked teams and TCU has beaten 3 ranked teams that are currently ranked (Clemson, Utah, and BYU). Lets see how the Top 25 stacks up...

1. Texas - 51.521
2. Alabama - 51.260
3. TCU - 49.316
4. Florida - 48.564
5. Boise State - 46.800
6. Ohio State - 44.918
7. Oregon - 44.192
8. Georgia Tech - 43.579
9. Cincinnati - 43.234
10. LSU - 39.907
11. Pittsburgh - 39.457
12. Iowa - 39.213
13. BYU - 38.770
14. Penn State - 38.379
15. Wisconsin - 37.742
16. USC - 37.635
17. Stanford - 37.467
18. Utah - 37.186
19. Nebraska - 36.908
20. Virginia Tech - 36.842
21. Oklahoma - 36.516
22. Oklahoma St. - 35.152
23. Oregon State - 34.849
24. Clemson - 34.442
25. Nevada - 33.919

559, 345, 313, 484, 312, 517, and 461. What are the significance of those numbers? Those are Nevada's rushing totals during their current 7 game win streak. Boise State better watch out for the Wolfpack as The Holmes Computer Rankings slips them in at #25.

College Football Picks - Week 11

It has been a rough year so far, but it could turn around at any point. I have to start thinking like Vegas in order to beat Vegas. If a line seems too low, then I have to wonder why. With that in mind, lets look to make some picks.

Stanford at USC (-10.5)
USC has won 47 of their last 48 home games so coming home will be nice but the lone loss was against Stanford in 2007. Stanford is hitting on all cylinders right now offensively averaging 210 yards rushing and 234 yards passing per game. The USC defense has given up an average of 30 points and 451 yards over the last 4 games. Factor in that USC could be without WR Damian Williams and TE Anthony McCoy and this has close game written all over it. Pick: Stanford +10.5

Alabama at Mississippi State (+12)
Mississippi State has started to play better football year, but they dont have enough offense to compete with Alabama. The Bulldogs hung in with Florida, but it took 2 defensive tds to stay within 10 points. That isn't likely to happen again. The Bulldogs defense isnt good enough to stop the Crimson Tide running attack. This game won't even be close. Pick: Alabama -12

Indiana at Penn State (-26)
Penn State is 1-3 ATS in home games coming off a loss to Ohio State. Indiana has played much better than their 4-6 record. They stayed within 26 points in their losses to Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The Hoosiers have covered the last 2 meetings vs Penn State and are 6-3 ATS this year. Pick: Indiana +26

Season: 13-17

NL Gold Glove Winners

Just like in the AL, the voters have no idea what a Gold Glove is about in the NL. Once again I will use UZR (ultimate zone rating) to find out which players that won actually deserved the award and who got robbed. Lets look at the winners and who should have won (bolded players are the correct decisions).

P - Adam Wainwright
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Adrian Gonzalez (3.8)
2B - Orlando Hudson (-3.3). Robbed: Chase Utley (10.8)
SS - Jimmy Rollins (2.7). Robbed: Rafael Furcal (8.0)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman (18.1)
OF - Shane Victorino (-4.1). Robbed: Nyjer Morgan (27.8)
OF - Matt Kemp (2.6). Robbed: Randy Winn (16.5)
OF - Michael Bourn (8.6). Robbed: Mike Cameron (10.0)

I have to give the voters some credit as there are some first time winners. It seems like the voters get too enamored with errors totals and are lazy. A player can't make an error if he doesn't get to a ball. Its a shame to see that Nyjer Morgan, the best defensive player in the NL this year, didn't win a Gold Glove. Hopefully, as the years go by and voters get more acclimated to defensive stats other than errors, the rightful winners will be chosen.

AL Gold Glove Winners

Another year of Gold Glove winners, another year of stupid decisions. I never understood the phenomenon of giving a Gold Glove award to a guy known for hitting. A Gold Glove is supposed to go to the best defensive player at his position in each league. There are players in the league specifically because of their defensive value but they are never rewarded. Now that we have stats that tell us more about defensive that errors, we can see if each winner was the person who actually deserved the award. I will use UZR (ultimate zone rating) which is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined (a score of 0.0 is MLB average). Lets look at the winners and who should have won (bolded players are the correct decisions).

P - Mark Buerhle
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Mark Teixeira (-3.7). Robbed: Kendry Morales (4.9)
2B - Placido Polanco (11.4)
SS - Derek Jeter (6.6). Robbed: Elvis Andrus (10.7)
3B - Evan Longoria (18.5)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (10.5). Robbed: Franklin Gutierrez (29.1)
OF - Torii Hunter (-1.4). Robbed: Ryan Sweeney (24.0)
OF - Adam Jones (-4.7). Robbed: Carl Crawford (17.6)

There is no data for pitchers and catchers and winners would be in line with what I thought just from watching games. As for the other winners, it is obvious the voters look at history and hitting and not for what the award is supposed to be about. Franklin Gutierrez was by far the best defensive player in the Major Leagues and the fact that he didn't win was an absolute travesty. Also, living in NY you would have thought Teixeira was the best 1B ever but according to these stats, he isn't even average. I wonder if his "greatness" was because of how bad the previous 1B (Giambi) was on defense? Oh well, tomorrow I can take apart the NL winners.

The Holmes Computer Rankings

Another week of games allows more data for my computer to find the REAL top 2 teams this year for the BCS Championship Game. How far does Iowa fall? Are Alabama and Texas still the top 2? Lets see the new Top 25...

1. Texas - 47.427
2. Alabama - 47.151
3. TCU - 45.255
4. Boise State - 44.345
5. Florida - 44.233
6. Ohio State - 42.254
7. Cincinnati - 40.935
8. Oregon - 40.312
9. Utah - 37.569
10. Georgia Tech - 37.520
11. Iowa - 37.477
12. USC - 37.032
13. BYU - 36.681
14. LSU - 36.076
15. Penn State - 35.714
16. Pittsburgh - 35.158
17. Houston - 33.965
18. Wisconsin - 33.526
19. Virginia Tech - 32.832
20. Arizona - 32.601
21. Notre Dame - 32.419
22. Miami - 32.319
23. Oklahoma St. - 32.229
24. Nebraska - 32.064
25. Stanford - 32.004

The shocker is TCU jumping ahead of Florida. The SEC East is killing Florida's strength of schedule. Time will tell if Florida can run the table, but my computer doesn't think they are one of the best 2 teams in the country this year. The PAC-10 and Big Ten lead the way with 4 teams in the Top 25. The argument that the MWC isn't as good as the AQ schools is losing credibility by the second as 3 teams are in the Top 13.

College Football Picks - Week 10

Arguably the worst BCS division is the Big 12 North. Every team already has 3 losses and none of the teams are ranked. They are just 2-8 vs ranked opponents. More troubling, is that they are just 3-10 vs the Big 12 North. In fact Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech are 9-0 vs the North. With that knowledge in hand, lets look to exploit those matchups this week.

Kansas at Kansas State (+2.5)
Kansas has won 3 in a row in this series and has the better QB. Kansas State's 3 wins in the Big 12 have come against Iowa State, Colorado and Texas A&M. Enough said. Pick: Kansas -2.5

Oklahoma State at Iowa State (+7.5)
Same logic. OSU won this meeting last year 59-17, has the better QB, and the better coach. Oklahoma State will also be looking to take out their anger from last week's loss at Texas this week. Pick: Oklahoma State -7.5

Oklahoma at Nebraska(+4)
Oklahoma won last year's meeting 62-28. The Sooners have lost 3 games by a combined 5 points. The Huskers haven't looked good in over a month. The tough DL of the Sooners should be able to bother the Huskers offense just enough to squeek out a win in Lincoln. I expect the Sooners to return to form and win by at least a TD. Pick: Oklahoma -4

Season: 12-15

The Holmes Computer Rankings

With 2/3 of the season under our belt, the Holmes Computer Rankings are starting to weed out some teams and narrow down the race for the Top 2 spots. How high does Oregon jump? Who is ranked higher right now, TCU or Boise State? Time for week 2 of the rankings.

1. Texas - 41.715
2. Alabama - 41.194
3. Boise State - 38.773
4. Florida - 38.693
5. TCU - 37.106
6. Oregon - 36.410
7. Ohio State - 35.635
8. Iowa - 35.609
9. Cincinnati - 35.133
10. Penn State - 34.164
11. LSU - 33.383
12. Georgia Tech - 33.023
13. Utah - 32.073
14. USC - 31.604
15. Notre Dame - 28.911
16. BYU - 28.740
17. Pittsburgh - 28.689
18. Oklahoma - 28.668
19. Auburn - 27.637
20. Houston - 27.465
21. Texas Tech - 27.219
22. Nebraska - 26.880
23. Virginia Tech -26.633
24. Wisconsin - 26.498
25. Texas A&M - 25.797

We have a new #1! Texas's thrashing of Oklahoma State moves them past Alabama for the top spot in the rankings. Ohio State is definitely benefiting from strength of schedule and a defense that has 3 shutouts while only allowing 11.7 ppg. Please remember these rankings are very fluid and some teams are looking a little better because they have played more games.