It is FINALLY footbal season and men around world couldn't be happier. Today should really be a national holiday. For all the fans, gamblers, fantasy football players, etc. tonight might bring tears to a couple of eyes. Football is back BABY! Time for my NFL predictions.
AFC
1. Patriots 14-2
2. Steelers 13-3
3. Chargers 12-4
4. Colts 11-5
5. Ravens 11-5
6. Texans 11-5
Wild Card Round
Chargers over Texans
Ravens over Colts
Divisional Round
Patroits over Ravens
Steelers over Chargers
Championship Game
Patroits over Steelers
NFC
1. Giants 12-4
2. Vikings 11-5
3. Cardinals 10-6
4. Saints 10-6
5. Packers 11-5
6. Eagles 11-5
Wild Card Round
Eagles over Cardinals
Packers over Saints
Divisional Round
Giants over Eagles
Packers over Vikings
Championship Game
Giants over Packers
Super Bowl
Patroits over Giants
MVP - Tom Brady
DPOY - Mario Williams
OROY - Knowshon Moreno
DROY - Aaron Curry
Top 5 Picks in 2010 NFL Draft
1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. St. Louis
4. Tampa Bay
5. Kansas City
Cant wait to hear where I went wrong. Let me have it!
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
If I had a vote....
Week one of college football is in the books and it is time to see what the voters thought. I have decided to post my vote (if I had one) for the Top 25. I will not be a victim of the first poll like so many voters will. I personally feel that there shouldn't be any rankings until Week 5. For example, if there was no preseason poll then BYU would be ranked ahead of Oklahoma this week. But since Oklahoma started at 3 and BYU at 20, then Oklahoma will probably still be ranked ahead of BYU today even though they just beat them. I also will not be afraid to move teams up and down based on performance and not on wins. For example, Oregon doesn't fall out of the rankings based on a loss at Boise State, but Iowa gets killed in my poll for beating 1AA Northern Iowa at home by 1 point. Don't worry if your team is a little low, every week they have an opportunity to move up. Time to pull the curtain back and unveil my vote.
1. Florida
2. USC
3. Alabama
4. Texas (gave up 20 points to LA-Monroe moves them down)
5. Oklahoma St
6. CAL
7. Penn St
8. BYU (big win skyrockets them up, but going to be hard to stay this high)
9. Ohio St
10. Boise St
11. Oklahoma
12. Ole Miss
13. Virginia Tech
14. LSU (struggled vs 0-12 Washington)
15. Cincinnati (defending Big East Champs destroyed Rutgers)
16. TCU
17. Utah
18. Miami (if offense plays this well, ACC crown could be in future)
19. Oregon (looked bad, but give them credit for playing at Boise St)
20. Oregon St
21. Georgia Tech
22. Georgia
23. Notre Dame
24. Missouri
25. Nebraska
There you go. These rankings will be very fluid from week to week. I cant wait to see where you disagree.
1. Florida
2. USC
3. Alabama
4. Texas (gave up 20 points to LA-Monroe moves them down)
5. Oklahoma St
6. CAL
7. Penn St
8. BYU (big win skyrockets them up, but going to be hard to stay this high)
9. Ohio St
10. Boise St
11. Oklahoma
12. Ole Miss
13. Virginia Tech
14. LSU (struggled vs 0-12 Washington)
15. Cincinnati (defending Big East Champs destroyed Rutgers)
16. TCU
17. Utah
18. Miami (if offense plays this well, ACC crown could be in future)
19. Oregon (looked bad, but give them credit for playing at Boise St)
20. Oregon St
21. Georgia Tech
22. Georgia
23. Notre Dame
24. Missouri
25. Nebraska
There you go. These rankings will be very fluid from week to week. I cant wait to see where you disagree.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Kendry Morales needs some love
Being an Angels fan living in NYC, I get to see the East Coast media dynamic up close. Last off-season the Angels made the choice to let Mark Teixeira go and replace him with Kendry Morales. Teixeira signed for 8 years and $180 million with the Yankees and immediately became a star. He got this offer despite only playing in one All-Star Game (2005) in his 6 year major league career. Why do I bring this up? Well, while Teixeira is the next coming of Mickey Mantle in NY, his replacement in Anaheim is quitely having a better year. You would never know it though because the media doesn't mention it. Teixeira could very well end up winning the AL MVP but Morales has been just as valuable if not more valuable to his team. Here are the numbers (thru Sept. 6th):Mark Teixeira: 132 games, .279/.378/.538/.917, 36 Doubles, 33 HR, 102 RBI, 86 Runs.
Kendy Morales: 127 games, .312/.357/.588/.945, 38 Doubles, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 73 Runs.
While the raw numbers may favor Teixeira, he is playing in a ballpark that is more condusive to offense. Factor in that the Yankees have been relatively healthy and the Angels ravaged with injuries and the case can be made that Morales has been more valuable to his team. Not to mention he is costing the Angels $19,400,000 less than what the Yankees are paying Teixeira this year. Although no one outside of California knows who you are, I am saying you SHOULD be 2nd in the AL MVP voting this year (Joe Mauer is my hands down favorite). Come on media, show Kendry some love!
Friday, September 4, 2009
Blount should be Suspended for 2009
I stayed up all night watching the Oregon vs Boise State football game. What a great thing for fans of this sport to get to watch 2 programs put a lot on the line right out of the gate. Boise State ended up winning 19-8 in a game that didn't resememble any of the offensive fireworks that were expected. As a PAC-10 fan, I wasn't nearly as embarrased by the final score (afterall Boise State is 65-2 at home since 1999) as I was with the actions of Oregon running back LaGarrette Blount after the game. Last year Boise State was accused of some cheap shots during their win in Eugene. Prior to this year's game, Blount stated "We owe that team an as-whuppin". Tensions were high and emotions on edge prior to the game. After the game was over, a couple Boise State players had some things to say to Blount. Blount showing the immaturity that caused him to be suspended from the team in February for "failure to fulfill team obligations", responded by punching a Bronco in the face. It was a despicable act that should get him suspended for the rest of the year. It was absolutely uncalled for and under no circumstances excusable. Then as he was walking off the field hearing taunts from the fans had to be retrained by assistant coaches. The kid really crossed the line and shouldn't be allowed to play college football anymore. He also cost himself a lot of money as he was projected to be a first-round prospect in next year's NFL Draft. Teams are valueing character more these days and I am sure no GM wants to invest a lot of money into someone who acted like Blount did last night. Do the right thing Oregon and tell this kid that he no longer gets the honor of wearing a college football uniform. He would be lucky to get off that easy as assault charges could be a possibility. Classless and embarrassing.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Soothsayer Soup
Who likes money? I know I do. I will be doing a weekly post on Thursdays where I will pick 3 college football games vs the spread (I will use Caesar Palace's lines). So in honor of our green friend, I have waded through the point spreads and found this week's games that we can exploit together. Without further ado, I look into my famous bowl of "Soothsayer Soup" to make everyone money.
Oregon at Boise State (-3)
Boise State is 64-2 at home the last 10 years, but Oregon is the 1st ranked opponent and only the 3rd BCS conference team to visit the "Smurf Turf". The Broncos won last year in Eugene 37-32. All signs point to another Bronco victory. I don't see it that way. The Ducks are still smarting from that loss and have openly talked about the cheap shots that Boise State took on some of its players during the game. While Boise State did win that game, it came during Week 4 of the season. Boise State wont sneak up on Oregon this year. Boise State is 3-11 vs PAC-10 teams all-time. Oregon has a bad taste in its mouth and had all off-season to think about this game. When the more talented team is focused and eager to exact revenge, it is tough to pick against them (see the point spread line dropping from 6 to 3 this week). I am chasing the smart money. Pick: Oregon +3
BYU at Oklahoma (-22.5)
Oklahoma returns last years Heisman trophy winning QB to an offense that should keep piling up the yards and points. BYU has some solid returning skill players, but their offensive line is in shambles (lost 4 starters to graduation and injuries are hurting the depth to start the season). That's not a good thing when facing what is arguably the most talented DL in the country. BYU was 1-5 ATS last year away from Provo. The spread is a little high, but as Oklahoma showed last year they aren't afraid to pile on points late (scored 58+ points in final 6 games last year). Pick: Oklahoma -22.5
LSU at Washington +17.5
The opening of the Steve Sarkisian era for the Huskies starts with a home date with the LSU Tigers. The key to this game will be QB play. LSU struggled at times last year with QB play until settling on Jordan Jefferson late in the year. UW was dealt a serious blow when Jake Locker was lost for the season during he 3rd game of the year. While that was the main reason they went 0-12, it still showed the lack of talent on the team. LSU #9 might be ranked a little high for my taste right now, but they are obviously more talented than the Huskies. LSU is hungry to show that last years dissapointing 7-5 season was a fluke (they destroyed Georgia Tech 38-3 in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl). Vegas might by regretting setting the line so low initially (opened at 14) because the smart money is chasing the Tigers. The #9 ranked team on the road vs a team that has lost 14 straight games seems too good to be true. Vegas may be trying to reel us in with this line, but I am going to take it anyway. Pick: LSU -17.5
Season Record: 0-0
Oregon at Boise State (-3)
Boise State is 64-2 at home the last 10 years, but Oregon is the 1st ranked opponent and only the 3rd BCS conference team to visit the "Smurf Turf". The Broncos won last year in Eugene 37-32. All signs point to another Bronco victory. I don't see it that way. The Ducks are still smarting from that loss and have openly talked about the cheap shots that Boise State took on some of its players during the game. While Boise State did win that game, it came during Week 4 of the season. Boise State wont sneak up on Oregon this year. Boise State is 3-11 vs PAC-10 teams all-time. Oregon has a bad taste in its mouth and had all off-season to think about this game. When the more talented team is focused and eager to exact revenge, it is tough to pick against them (see the point spread line dropping from 6 to 3 this week). I am chasing the smart money. Pick: Oregon +3
BYU at Oklahoma (-22.5)
Oklahoma returns last years Heisman trophy winning QB to an offense that should keep piling up the yards and points. BYU has some solid returning skill players, but their offensive line is in shambles (lost 4 starters to graduation and injuries are hurting the depth to start the season). That's not a good thing when facing what is arguably the most talented DL in the country. BYU was 1-5 ATS last year away from Provo. The spread is a little high, but as Oklahoma showed last year they aren't afraid to pile on points late (scored 58+ points in final 6 games last year). Pick: Oklahoma -22.5
LSU at Washington +17.5
The opening of the Steve Sarkisian era for the Huskies starts with a home date with the LSU Tigers. The key to this game will be QB play. LSU struggled at times last year with QB play until settling on Jordan Jefferson late in the year. UW was dealt a serious blow when Jake Locker was lost for the season during he 3rd game of the year. While that was the main reason they went 0-12, it still showed the lack of talent on the team. LSU #9 might be ranked a little high for my taste right now, but they are obviously more talented than the Huskies. LSU is hungry to show that last years dissapointing 7-5 season was a fluke (they destroyed Georgia Tech 38-3 in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl). Vegas might by regretting setting the line so low initially (opened at 14) because the smart money is chasing the Tigers. The #9 ranked team on the road vs a team that has lost 14 straight games seems too good to be true. Vegas may be trying to reel us in with this line, but I am going to take it anyway. Pick: LSU -17.5
Season Record: 0-0
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
MLB Playoff Predictions Review
Yesterday we looked at my predictions for the MLB awards and saw how terrible I did predicting those. Today we look at my Playoff Predictions from early April. Here is what I predicted back then:
Age 29.8, 4.79 runs per game, .272 avg, .346 obp, .436 slg, .782 ops, 4.03 era, 113 era+, 1.326 whip (era+ is adjusted to account for the home team's park. I choose whip as an important stat because it shows us which teams do the best job at keeping teams off base)
I then choose the top 6 teams in each division and narrowed them down from there (AL - NYY, BOS, TB, LAA, TEX, DET...NL - PHI, ATL, STL, LAD, COL, SF). Then I looked at the stats to see if any outliers existing that would eliminate any of the above teams.
In the NL, Philadelphia came the closest to being the team that stands out. Their overall era is 4.12 and whip is 1.345, but in the 2nd half they have has been a stellar 3.14 and 1.207 respectively. I eliminated the other 5 teams for the following reasons: SF (Offense - 27th runs per game, 29th HRs, 30th in OBP and OPS), COL (Age - 2 years younger than the last 14 champs), ATL (below avg in all offense categories), LAD (young pitching, lack of power, obp worse than last 11 champs), STL (below avg in all 5 offensive categories even with Pujols). So factoring all that in, the Phillies are the least flawed team in the NL and thus will go to the World Series.
In the AL, the Yankees came the closest to being the team that stands out. Besides being 1st in every offense category except average, their pitching is getting better. Their overall era is 4.35, but in the 2nd half it is a below avg 3.93 (not bad considering the launching pad they play in). I eliminated the other 5 teams for the following reasons: LAA (era 4.79), BOS (4.69 era in 2nd half), DET (young pitching, more than 3 years younger than last 14 WS Champs and below average in all categories), TEX (.321 obp worse than any last 14 WS Champs), TB (youth and 6 games behind BOS for WC). So factoring all that in the Yankees are the least flawed team in the AL and thus will go to the World Series.
Here is how I see it today:
While not as bad as my award predictions, still pretty awful. Most of the experts would put the Yankees as the clear front runner to win the World Series based off their power numbers right now. I decided to see how important power is to winning the World Series. I went back through every season to 1995 and noticed that only 1 team had won the World Series while finishing in the Top 4 in HRs (2008 Phillies were 2nd with 214 HRs). I then looked at the avg stats of the last 14 champions to see if any trends developed to help me predict the rest of this season. Here are the average stats for the last 14 champs:AL Playoff teams: Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, and Yankees (WC)
ALDS - Red Sox over Angels, Yankees over White Sox
ALCS - Red Sox over Yankees
NL Playoff teams: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, and Phillies (WC)
NLDS - Mets over Dodgers, Cubs over Phillies
NLCS - Mets over Cubs
World Series - Red Sox over Mets
Age 29.8, 4.79 runs per game, .272 avg, .346 obp, .436 slg, .782 ops, 4.03 era, 113 era+, 1.326 whip (era+ is adjusted to account for the home team's park. I choose whip as an important stat because it shows us which teams do the best job at keeping teams off base)
I then choose the top 6 teams in each division and narrowed them down from there (AL - NYY, BOS, TB, LAA, TEX, DET...NL - PHI, ATL, STL, LAD, COL, SF). Then I looked at the stats to see if any outliers existing that would eliminate any of the above teams.
In the NL, Philadelphia came the closest to being the team that stands out. Their overall era is 4.12 and whip is 1.345, but in the 2nd half they have has been a stellar 3.14 and 1.207 respectively. I eliminated the other 5 teams for the following reasons: SF (Offense - 27th runs per game, 29th HRs, 30th in OBP and OPS), COL (Age - 2 years younger than the last 14 champs), ATL (below avg in all offense categories), LAD (young pitching, lack of power, obp worse than last 11 champs), STL (below avg in all 5 offensive categories even with Pujols). So factoring all that in, the Phillies are the least flawed team in the NL and thus will go to the World Series.
In the AL, the Yankees came the closest to being the team that stands out. Besides being 1st in every offense category except average, their pitching is getting better. Their overall era is 4.35, but in the 2nd half it is a below avg 3.93 (not bad considering the launching pad they play in). I eliminated the other 5 teams for the following reasons: LAA (era 4.79), BOS (4.69 era in 2nd half), DET (young pitching, more than 3 years younger than last 14 WS Champs and below average in all categories), TEX (.321 obp worse than any last 14 WS Champs), TB (youth and 6 games behind BOS for WC). So factoring all that in the Yankees are the least flawed team in the AL and thus will go to the World Series.
Here is how I see it today:
The Phillies will win the World Series again on the strength of pitching. It will be an exciting long series but he Phillies LHP (Lee, Hamels, and Happ) should help neutralize the Cano, Matsui, Damon, and Teixiera (less power RH, certainly in Yankee Stadium). If the Yankees can get through Boston and have Sabathia for 3 games it could swing the series, but I see see the Phillies coming through in the end.AL Playoff teams: Yankees, Angels, Tigers, and Red Sox(WC)
ALDS - Red Sox over Angels, Yankees over Tigers
ALCS - Yankees over Red Sox
NL Playoff teams: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies (WC)
NLDS - Phillies over Rockies, Cardinals over Dodgers
NLCS - Phillies over Cardinals
World Series - Phillies over Yankees
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
MLB Awards Review
Now that the calendar has turned to September I wanted to look back and see how my MLB Award Predicitions are going. One of the best thing about blogging is that there is a record of what you thought. Lets see how smart I was (sarcastic) back in April:
MVP -Manny Ramirez (NL), Grady Sizemore (AL)
Cy Young -Johan Santana (NL), Jon Lester (AL)
Manager of the Year - Jerry Manuel (NL), Ron Gardenhire (AL)
Rookie of the Year - Cameron Maybin (NL), David Price (AL)
Obviously my picks leave a lot to be desired. Right now, I dont see any of my 8 picks being correct. So, lets change them. Here is what I think now.
NL MVP - Albert Pujols: .320 avg (5th), .443 obp (1st), .669 slg (1st), 1.112 ops (1st), 102 runs (1st), 41 HRs (1st), 110 RBIs (3rd), 98 walks (3rd). If anyone doesn't vote him first, they should lose the ability to vote forever. This one is a slam dunk.
Runner-Up: No one.
AL MVP - Joe Mauer: .368 avg (1st), .436 obp (1st), .615 slg (1st), 1.051 ops (1st). That alone should win him the MVP. When you factor in his 26 HRs and 80 RBIs and the fact that he is a catcher, this one should also be a slam dunk. Just think what his numbers would have been had he not missed April with a back injury.
Runner-Up: Mark Teixeira.
NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum: 13-4 (t4 wins), 2.33 ERA (2nd), 222 K's (1st), 4 CG's (t1st), 2 Shutouts (t1st), 1.03 Whip (3rd), .208 BAA (2nd). There a lot of contenders, but Lincecum is the reigning winner and no one has taken it from him. This one comes down to who pitches the best in September.
Runner-Up: Chris Carpenter, Dan Haren, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain...
AL Cy Young - Zack Greinke: 13-8 (t5th in wins), 2.32 ERA (1st), 202 K's (2nd), 6 CG's (1st), 3 Shutouts (1st), 1.08 Whip (1st), .233 BAA (1st). While this one should be easy, it will be hard for some to vote a pitcher on the worst team in the AL as the Cy Young. Doesn't matter to me as he has been by far the best pitcher in the AL this season.
Runner-Up: Justin Verlander.
NL Manager of the Year - Tony LaRussa. The Cardinals are just 1 game off the pace for the best record in the NL. All the experts had the Cubs running away with the NL Central but the Cardinals have the biggest lead (10.5 games) of any team in the Majors.
Runner-Up: Jim Tracy.
AL Manager of the Year - Mike Scioscia. The Angels have the 2nd best record in the Majors despite injuries to starting pitchers John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Kelvim Escobar and the death of Nick Adenhart (13 different pitchers have started a game this year). Now mix in the free agent defections of Mark Teixiera, Francisco Rodriguez, and John Garland and it is amazing that they are where they are.
Runner-Up: Ron Washington.
NL Rookie of the Year - JA Happ. 10-3, 2.63 ERA (5th in NL), .226 BAA (6th in NL). Happ has been the best pitcher on the defending World Series Champs. That has gotten him a lot of attention and thanks to being in the majors all year, he edges out the competition.
Runner-Up: Tommy Hanson.
AL Rookie of the Year - Andrew Bailey. Who? Exactly. Not many have noticed the Oakland Closer but check out these numbers. 6-3 with 21 saves, 1.88 ERA, 72 IP, 44 hits, 76 K's (leads all AL relievers), 0.92 Whip, and a .173 BAA. The only question will be, has anyone noticed him outside of the Bay Area.
Runner-Up: Jeff Niemann.
There you go. Now lets see how I did a month from now.
MVP -Manny Ramirez (NL), Grady Sizemore (AL)
Cy Young -Johan Santana (NL), Jon Lester (AL)
Manager of the Year - Jerry Manuel (NL), Ron Gardenhire (AL)
Rookie of the Year - Cameron Maybin (NL), David Price (AL)
Obviously my picks leave a lot to be desired. Right now, I dont see any of my 8 picks being correct. So, lets change them. Here is what I think now.
NL MVP - Albert Pujols: .320 avg (5th), .443 obp (1st), .669 slg (1st), 1.112 ops (1st), 102 runs (1st), 41 HRs (1st), 110 RBIs (3rd), 98 walks (3rd). If anyone doesn't vote him first, they should lose the ability to vote forever. This one is a slam dunk.
Runner-Up: No one.
AL MVP - Joe Mauer: .368 avg (1st), .436 obp (1st), .615 slg (1st), 1.051 ops (1st). That alone should win him the MVP. When you factor in his 26 HRs and 80 RBIs and the fact that he is a catcher, this one should also be a slam dunk. Just think what his numbers would have been had he not missed April with a back injury.
Runner-Up: Mark Teixeira.
NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum: 13-4 (t4 wins), 2.33 ERA (2nd), 222 K's (1st), 4 CG's (t1st), 2 Shutouts (t1st), 1.03 Whip (3rd), .208 BAA (2nd). There a lot of contenders, but Lincecum is the reigning winner and no one has taken it from him. This one comes down to who pitches the best in September.
Runner-Up: Chris Carpenter, Dan Haren, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain...
AL Cy Young - Zack Greinke: 13-8 (t5th in wins), 2.32 ERA (1st), 202 K's (2nd), 6 CG's (1st), 3 Shutouts (1st), 1.08 Whip (1st), .233 BAA (1st). While this one should be easy, it will be hard for some to vote a pitcher on the worst team in the AL as the Cy Young. Doesn't matter to me as he has been by far the best pitcher in the AL this season.
Runner-Up: Justin Verlander.
NL Manager of the Year - Tony LaRussa. The Cardinals are just 1 game off the pace for the best record in the NL. All the experts had the Cubs running away with the NL Central but the Cardinals have the biggest lead (10.5 games) of any team in the Majors.
Runner-Up: Jim Tracy.
AL Manager of the Year - Mike Scioscia. The Angels have the 2nd best record in the Majors despite injuries to starting pitchers John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Kelvim Escobar and the death of Nick Adenhart (13 different pitchers have started a game this year). Now mix in the free agent defections of Mark Teixiera, Francisco Rodriguez, and John Garland and it is amazing that they are where they are.
Runner-Up: Ron Washington.
NL Rookie of the Year - JA Happ. 10-3, 2.63 ERA (5th in NL), .226 BAA (6th in NL). Happ has been the best pitcher on the defending World Series Champs. That has gotten him a lot of attention and thanks to being in the majors all year, he edges out the competition.
Runner-Up: Tommy Hanson.
AL Rookie of the Year - Andrew Bailey. Who? Exactly. Not many have noticed the Oakland Closer but check out these numbers. 6-3 with 21 saves, 1.88 ERA, 72 IP, 44 hits, 76 K's (leads all AL relievers), 0.92 Whip, and a .173 BAA. The only question will be, has anyone noticed him outside of the Bay Area.
Runner-Up: Jeff Niemann.
There you go. Now lets see how I did a month from now.
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