Sunday, December 21, 2008

72 wins for the Boston Celtics?

After beating the New York Knickerbockers last night, the Boston Celtics are currently 26-2 and riding an 18 game winning streak. The Boston Celtics are making a push to become one of the best teams in NBA history. After going 66-16 and winning the NBA Championship last year, it was expected that they would continue to be one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and be a favorite to return to the NBA Finals. Could they challenge the NBA record for wins in a season by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. Only one team in NBA history has ever won 70 games in a season (the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls went 72-10). The Bulls got out to a 41-3 mark after 44 games and it will be hard for the Celtics to match that, but they can still make a run at 70 wins. Looking closer at the numbers it appears that there wont be a drop off without injury to the Boston Three Party (Garnett, Pierce, or Allen).

Point Differential
2007-08 100.5 to 90.3 point differential 10.2 ppg #1
2008-09 101.3 to 90.9 point differential 10.4 ppg #2 (Cleveland 13.3)

Look for the Celtics to get to 70 wins and possibly challenge the all-time record of 72 wins. A big step towards the mark will be a Christmas Day rematch of the Finals with the LA Lakers.

Friday, December 19, 2008

The Despicable Furcal Deal

As someone who knows a little bit about the process of signing a baseball free agent, I was taken aback by the actions of Rafeal Furcal and his agent Paul Kinzer. On Monday, the Braves had thought they had an agreement with Furcal to sign with them for 3 years and $30 million. They had faxed over a signed terms agreement on Tuesday morning. This should have sealed the deal. All Kinzer needed to do was sign the terms agreement and fax it back to the Braves and the contract would have been binding. Instead Kinzer apparently took the agreement from the Braves to the Dodgers front office to get them to up their offer to sign the player. The Dodgers apparently went to $33 million for 3 years and Furcal agreed. Taking a signed terms agreement to another team is a ridiculous way to handle your business. The agent was simply taking advantage of the Braves and it might cost him in the future. Here are some quotes from Braves President and former GM John Schuerholz,
"Having been in this business for 40-some years, I’ve never seen anybody treated like that. The Atlanta Braves will no longer do business with that company — ever. I told [agent] Arn Tellem that we can’t trust them to be honest and forthright. I told him that in all my years, I’ve never seen any [agency] act in such a despicable manner. It was disgusting and unprofessional. We’re a proud organization, and we won’t allow ourselves to be treated that way. I advised Arn Tellem that whatever players he represents, just scratch us off the list. Take the name of the Atlanta Braves off their speed dial. They can deal with the other 29 clubs, and we’ll deal with the other hundred agents.”
Here is hoping that the Braves will stay true to their word and not sign any players represented by this agency. Peter Moylan, a relief pitcher, is the only current Brave represented by Tellem's agency. Schuerholz is a powerful man in the tight knit circle of MLB GM's. His words may have some influence on other GM's. I hope this causes the agency to lose some players. If I was a player getting ready to hit a big pay day, I would absolutely want all 30 teams bidding on me and certainly one like the Braves. I guess Kinzer has watched Jerry Maquire one too many times. He got his money, but will it cost him in the long run? Let's also hope that Keith Olbermann puts him on his "Worst Person in the World" list.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

NFC Pro Bowl Roster

The NFC brings many more possibilities to the skill positions this year than the AFC. There are legitimately 6 RB's that could claim the 3 spots. Which QB is left out? The NFL will answer these questions at 4 pm EST today, but I am here to tell you who it should be. And the winners are.....

NFC
Offense
QB: *Drew Brees (Saints), Eli Manning (Giants), Kurt Warner (Cardinals)
RB: *Adrian Peterson (Vikings), Michael Turner (Falcons), Clinton Portis (Redskins)
FB: *Brad Hoover (Panthers)
WR: *Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), *Anquan Boldin (Cardinals), Steve Smith (Panthers), Roddy White (Falcons)
TE: *Jason Witten (Cowboys), Chris Cooley (Redskins)
OT: *Jamaal Brown (Saints), *David Diehl (Giants), Jordan Gross (Panthers)
OG: *Steve Hutchinson (Vikings), *Chris Snee (Giants), Leonard Davis (Cowboys)
C: *Matt Birk (Vikings), Olin Kreutz (Bears)

Defense
DE: *Jared Allen (Vikings), *Justin Tuck (Giants), John Abraham (Falcons)
DT: *Kevin Williams (Vikings), *Darnell Dockett (Cardinals), Jay Ratliff (Cowboys)
OLB: *Demarcus Ware (Cowboys), *Lance Briggs (Bears), Karlos Dansby (Cardinals)
MLB: *Jon Beason (Panthers), Patrick Willis (49ers)
CB: *Charles Woodson (Packers), *Ronde Barber (Buccaners), Charles Tillman (Bears)
S: *Brian Dawkins (Eagles), *Adrian Wilson (Cardinals), Nick Collins (Packers)

Special Teams
K: John Carney (Giants)
P: Donnie Jones (Rams)
KR: Allen Rossum(49ers)
ST: Chase Blackburn (Giants)

(*represents starters)

The Giants and Cardinals tied for the most with 6 Pro Bowlers. The Seahawks (thanks to Walter Jones's surgery) and Lions were the only 2 teams without a Pro Bowler. I am sure some of you will be offended with the exclusion of Tony Romo, DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook, etc. Lets hear the arguments for them!

Monday, December 15, 2008

Pro Bowl Ballot

The NFL Pro Bowl selections will be announced tomorrow. There are always "snubs" every year when the teams are announced initially, but keep in mind that there will be plenty of replacements between now and February. Hopefully I will get most of them right (personal satisfaction) and rankle some feathers of some fans as I "forgot" about their teams players that are playing at a Pro-Bowl level this year. Today we look at my AFC Roster (NFC tomorrow):

AFC
Offense
QB: *Peyton Manning (Colts), Jay Cutler (Broncos), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
RB: *Thomas Jones (Jets), LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers), Chris Johnson (Titans)
FB: *Le'Ron McClain (Ravens)
WR: *Andre Johnson (Texans), *Reggie Wayne (Colts), Brandon Marshall (Broncos), Wes Welker (Patriots)
TE: *Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs), Dallas Clark (Colts)
OT: *D'Brickashaw Ferguson (Jets), *Michael Roos (Titans), Jake Long (Dolphins)
OG: *Logan Mankins (Patriots), *Alan Faneca (Jets), Ben Grubbs (Ravens)
C: *Kevin Mawae (Titans), Dan Koppen (Patriots)

Defense
DE: *Mario Williams (Texans), *Richard Seymour (Patriots), Robert Mathis (Colts)
DT: *Albert Haynesworth (Titans), *Kris Jenkins (Jets), Haloti Ngata (Ravens)
OLB: *Joey Porter (Dolphins), *James Harrison (Steelers), Terrell Suggs (Ravens)
MLB: *Ray Lewis (Ravens), James Farrior (Steelers)
CB: *Nnamdi Asomugha (Raiders), *Cortland Finnegan (Titans), Rashean Mathis (Jaguars)
S: *Ed Reed (Ravens), *Troy Polamalu (Steelers), Kerry Rhodes (Jets)

Special Teams
K: Rob Bironas (Titans)
P: Shane Lechler (Raiders)
KR: Leon Washington (Jets)
ST: Josh Cribbs (Browns)

(*represents starters)

The Titans, Ravens, and Jets all tied for the most with 6 Pro Bowlers. The Bengals and Bills were the only 2 teams without a Pro Bowler. Come on, tell me who I put on that doesn't belong and who should be there!

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Bowl Season is Upon Us

The Bowl Season is finally here. While some conferences have been given the media love (SEC and Big 12) and some have been hammered (PAC-10 and ACC), the bowl season will give us a better idea with some head-to-head match ups. Bowl season is put up or shut up time. I love looking at the point spreads when they first come out to see what Vegas thinks about each game. Which conference does Vegas see value in? Which conference does Vegas think is a little overrated? Lets break down each of the 6 BCS conferences:

The SEC is favored in 3/8 games.
The Big 12 is favored in 5/7 games.
The Big 10 is favored in 1/7 games.
The PAC-10 is favored in 4/5 games.
The Big East is favored in 4/6 games.
The ACC is favored in 6/10 games.

SEC
Vegas isn't buying the notion that the SEC is the best and deepest conference like some would like us to believe (yes, you ESPN). While Florida is favored to bring home the 4th BCS title in 5 years for the SEC, they will have 5 teams playing in bowls as underdogs.

Big 12
Vegas appears to be buying the Big 12 as the best conference. Although Oklahoma is an underdog against SEC Florida, they will have the chance to beat the PAC-10 (Oklahoma St vs Oregon), the Big 10 (Texas vs Ohio St, Missouri vs Northwestern, Kansas vs Minnesota), ACC (Nebraska vs Clemson), and the SEC (Texas Tech vs Ole Miss. If they can win most of these games, they will stake claim to the best conference in 2008.

Big 10
Yikes, what happened to this once proud conference. After going 0-4 in the BCS the last 2 years, they appeared to be heading down in the conference pecking order. Vegas has them as underdogs in 6/7 contests with Iowa the lone favorite. They will have the opportunity to quickly change their perception if they can beat USC, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, Kansas, Florida State, and South Carolina. Looks like an ugly bowl season for the Big 10.

PAC-10
For a conference that has been repeatedly bashed by the media, Vegas likes them in 4/5 match ups. Part of the reason for the bashing is only having 5 teams bowl eligible, but those 5 teams seem to be quality. The lone underdog is Oregon vs Oklahoma State. Being a PAC-10 homer, I am a little surprised to see Arizona favored over #16 BYU and Oregon State favored over #20 Pitt. While they wont face the elite teams the Big 10 will, they still face 4 ranked opponents. It could be a surprisingly good bowl season for them.

Big East
The Big East is favored in 4/6 contests. Cincinnati will have the opportunity to win the Orange Bowl for the conference, but the other games aren't going to bring much notoriety. Only 1/6 games are against ranked opponents.

ACC
The ACC has been regarded as the worst conference due to not having an elite team, but they did field an astonishing 10 bowl teams. They also went 6-4 against the SEC this season. Vegas likes them in 6/10 contests. On paper there seem to be some tough opponents (LSU, Nebraska, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Cal) but the truth is none of those teams offer the conference a chance to beat an elite opponent this year.

The Big 10 appears to have the toughest bowl schedule and it might lead to another down year for them. The PAC-10 could be the surprise conference as they have the best chance of the top conferences to go undefeated. Should Oklahoma beat Florida, it could be a long bowl season in the SEC. I can't wait until January!

Sunday, December 7, 2008

BCS Title Game Rematch

I find it curious that the media has been saying the title game will be Florida vs Oklahoma. As Lee Corso would say "Not so fast my friend!"

I have been crunching some numbers and it might be closer than anyone thinks. Lets assume that Oklahoma, Florida, and Texas are 1, 2, and 3 in the polls (not necessarily in that order). The computers currently have Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Texas Tech, Utah, and Florida in that order. The difference between Texas (0.94) and Florida (0.82) is staggering. The Gators win yesterday will probably push them ahead of Alabama and Utah. But Texas is almost certain to still be ahead of Florida in the computers based on beating #1 Oklahoma. Also the computers will recognize Texas's strength of loss. They lost to #7 Texas Tech in Lubbock. Florida lost at home to unranked Ole Miss. Look for the computers to have Oklahoma and Texas 1-2 today.

The question, what needs to happen to put Texas ahead of Florida? Oklahoma needs to be #1 in the Coaches poll. This will keep Florida down closer to Texas. The closer in the polls Texas can keep it, the better as they will have a higher computer number. Also, in the Harris poll Florida was #2 before beating #1 Alabama. Even if they move to #1, Texas needs Oklahoma to eat into their margin. I think it is safe to say that Florida will not receive the same amount of poll points as Alabama last week. The more votes Oklahoma gets, the better for Texas. Even if Florida ends up at #1 in the Harris it wont kill Texas necessarily since the number the BCS uses is derived from points not poll position. Go Sooners!

For those of us that hate the BCS, the best case scenario to blow it up is to have an Oklahoma vs Texas rematch. Could you imagine the belly-aching that would come from the South (and ESPN) if Florida was left out? It brings a smile to my face. Bring on the chaos!

Friday, December 5, 2008

BCS Mania

There are some great match-ups as we head into the last weekend of the regular season in college football. If you have been reading this blog then you know how much I hate the BCS. College football needs a playoff. The "system" was created to put the Top 2 teams at the end of the season. This week #1 Alabama is a 10 point underdog against #4 Florida. What? How can they be the best team when Vegas (who by the way is in the business of making money) says they shouldn't stay within a TD of Florida? I understand they haven't lost but then again they have only beaten 1 team that is currently ranked. Also, one of the computers, The Sagarin ELO-CHESS rankings, has 1-AA James Madison at #24. They lost to Duke 31-7. Seriously, look it up. Enough about the computers, lets pick some games and predict the BCS games before we find out on Sunday what is going to happen.

SEC Championship
#1 Alabama vs #4 Florida
Line: Florida by 10 points
This game puts old school strength against new school speed in a fascinating match-up. I like Florida to win (they are older and have been there before) but not by 10 points. Alabama will control the line of scrimmage for most of the game until QB John Parker Wilson has to make plays. Look for a costly turnover in the 4th quarter to cost Alabama. Prediction: Florida 27, Alabama 20

Big 12 Championship
#20 Missouri vs #2 Oklahoma
Line: Oklahoma by 17 points
Oklahoma has come up short recently in post-season games earning the nicknames "Choke-lahoma" and "Joke-lahoma". Can Missouri pull the upset? Ummm....no. Oklahoma destroyed Missouri twice last year and looks to do the same again. Missouri is 9-3 and didn't beat anyone of notice all season. They have been called "The Paper Tigers" because of their lack of a signature win despite their gaudy record the last two years. The only thing that Missouri has going for it in this game is the weather. Game time temperature is supposed to be around 28 degrees. I like the "Under" (79), but Oklahoma wins easily. Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Missouri 21

ACC Championship
#17 Boston College vs #25 Virginia Tech
Line: Boston College by 1 point
This could be a repeat of last year. Boston College won in the regular season then lost to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship. Boston College beat Virginia Tech this year, but they will be playing this game with their backup QB. I like Virginia Tech to keep it close and make a play on special teams to win. Prediction: Virginia Tech 17, Boston College 14

Battle of LA
#5 USC vs UCLA
Line: USC by 33 points
Love that both team will be going back to the tradition of wearing the home jersies. That is the way it was done until 1983 and love that it is coming back. As for the game, look for a USC to annihilate UCLA. UCLA has been without its best two QB's all season and it has shown. They are 110th in the nation in offense and that doesn't bode well when going against the best scoring defense in 20 years (Auburn in 1988 last team to give up less than 8 points a game). This one wont be close. Prediction: USC 48, UCLA 3

These results wont leave much suspense come Sunday as the final BCS Standings are announced. The BCS Bowls should look like this:

BCS Championship Game
Florida vs Oklahoma

Rose Bowl
USC vs Penn State

Fiesta Bowl
Texas vs Ohio State

Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs Utah

Orange Bowl
Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech

The only question will be surrounding the Fiesta Bowl. Utah wants in that game because it will be easier for their fans to travel to Phoenix. The Fiesta Bowl might choose them, but it will be hard to ignore the money that Ohio State can bring. Look for money to win out.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Defense Doesn't Win (National) Championships

The old proverb that "Defense wins Championships" isn't being proven this year in college football. The best defense this year probably won't even be given a chance to play for the championship. Everyone in the country is falling in love with the spread offense and the points it can produce. Style points must only mean "points scored". Is winning 61-41 more impressive than 38-3? I will take the team that gives up 3 points. If you haven't guessed yet, USC is the team I am referring too. Here are some mind-blowing stats on USC's defense:

- 86 points allowed (7.8 ppg). #1 in the country
- 210.5 yards allowed per game. #1 in the country
- 86.5 rushing yards allowed per game. #6 in the country
- 2.6 yards per rushing attempt
- 124.0 passing yards allowed per game. #1 in the country
- 81.8 defensive pass efficiency per game. #1 in the country


USC has given up a total of 19 points in 6 home games. That is 3.2 ppg. That is absurd. I don't care if you played 6 1-AA schools, that would still be impressive. USC did this against Ohio State, Oregon, Cal, Arizona State, Washington, and Notre Dame. Ohio State looks BCS bound and Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame are bowl eligible. If Arizona State wins this weekend then they are bowl eligible too. 19 points total! Amazing. The FG in the 4th quarter by Notre Dame is the only 3 points USC has allowed in the 2nd half in 6 home games. 3 points in 6 2nd halves total. Wow.

USC has outscored its oppenents 185-22 in the 2nd half all season. 22 points in 11 games! To break it down: USC has given up 7 points in the 3rd quarter and 15 points in the 4th quarter all season. Unbelievable. No one else in the country can say that.

USC should have at least 9 guys drafted off defense in the 2009 NFL Draft. MLB Rey Maualuga, OLB Brian Cushing, and FS Taylor Mays (JR) are sure fire first rounders. DT Fili Moala, SS Kevin Ellison, OLB Clay Matthews, CB Cary Harris, LB Kaluka Maiava and DE Kyle Moore should all hear their names called with the possibility of 5 in the first 2 rounds. Starting DE Everson Griffen (SO) could also be a 1st round pick when he is eligible.

It is a shame that we won't get to see USC play for the championship.