After finishing the regular season, the Big 12 South has 3 teams tied at 11-1: Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. The fifth tiebreaker, whoever is ranked highest in the BCS Standings, will be used to determine the winner. Lets compare the 3 teams:
- Texas beat Oklahoma by 10 points on a neutral field.
- Oklahoma beat Texas Tech by 45 points at home
- Texas Tech beat Texas by 6 at home
Due to Texas Tech's loss by 45 points, they aren't going to be ranked high enough in the BCS standings to win the division. They also played 2 1-AA teams in the non-conference schedule and that will hurt their computer ranking. So it is going to come down to Texas and Oklahoma. Texas conveniently wants to just shout that they beat Oklahoma, thus they should be the winner. Well, it is a 3 way tie, not 2. So that argument doesn't work. How can we judge these teams without using head-to-head. The easiest way is to look at 3 factors:
1. Non-Conference Schedule
Texas played Florida Atlantic, at UTEP, Rice, and Arkansas. No ranked teams, nothing to take note of. Oklahoma played Chattanooga, Cincinnati (Big East winner and BCS Bound), at Washington, and TCU (currently ranked 14th in BCS and most likely higher later this afternoon). Advantage: Oklahoma by a long shot.
2. Point Differential in Big 12 Games against Common Opponents
These teams shared 5 common opponents in the Big 12 this year: Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas. Oklahoma outscored these 5 teams by 148 points. Texas outscored them by 90. Advantage: Oklahoma.
3. Road Wins of Note
Texas went 3-1 in road games beating UTEP, Colorado, and Kansas on the road (lost to Texas Tech). Oklahoma went 5-0 in road games beating Washington, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State by far is the best road win of any team in the Big 12. Advantage: Oklahoma.
Using these 3 factors (can't use head-to-head because of a 3 way tie) Oklahoma is clearly the team that should represent the Big 12 South next weekend in Kansas City. Sorry Texas. Sorry Texas Tech. Oklahoma moves on.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Friday, November 28, 2008
The Schedule Police
Even though every other division in college football has a playoff to determine a champion, Division I keeps hiding its head in the sand and trumping up the Bowl System. So coming to the conclusion that a playoff is years away, there is something that the BCS can do to even out the playing field. The BCS should have certain rules in place that would help the voters determine how good a teams are. In the past couple of years, teams have started to figure out that scheduling is a huge part of the BCS formula. Why play tough opponents or road games in the non-conference portion of the schedule that can be controlled? The reason is so that the voters can get a better opinion on how good teams are. The BCS should institute "The Schedule Police". This body would ensure that in order for a team to play in the BCS Championship Game or in a BCS Game as an at-large team, it has followed 3 scheduling rules (conference automatic bids wouldn't have to follow these rules).
The Schedule Police 3 Rules:
1. Don't play any 1-AA (FCS) opponents - if you want to be one of the best teams in the country, you should play 12 FBS teams. No questions asked.
2. Don't play 8 home games - Hard to judge a team that plays 4 non-conference home games. Again, to be the best you should have to play more than 4 road games.
3. Play at least one non-conference game against a BCS Conference team - Voters need all the help they can get and playing 4 non-conference games against Sun Belt or WAC teams isn't helping them.
I would love to see these 3 rules instituted. It would be awesome just from the standpoint of how fans would react to a their teams schedule. A team that schedules a 1-AA team would be telling their fans "We don't think we are good enough to play for the Championship". It isn't asking much for teams to follow these 3 simple rules.
The following Top 15 teams would be eligible for the BCS Championship Game or an at-large bid using these 3 rules: 1. Alabama, 2. Texas, and 5. USC. That is it. The BCS needs to get involved in how teams schedule. Texas Tech, Florida State, and Georgia Tech played 2 1-AA schools this year. That is downright absurd. They shouldn't be rewarded for that. Florida State and LSU play 8 home games this year. That is a huge advantage that might be taken into factor by the voters should they be talking about playing for the BCS Championship Game, but it also helps the conference out tremendously because the voters most likely don't look at that when ranking the teams. If that means moving Florida State up 5-8 spots in the polls because they played 8 home games and 2 games against 1-AA schools, that is unfair to the other teams trying to get ranked. The BCS, if it is going to continue to exist, needs to make some changes and they need to start with forcing teams to schedule decent opponents.
The Schedule Police 3 Rules:
1. Don't play any 1-AA (FCS) opponents - if you want to be one of the best teams in the country, you should play 12 FBS teams. No questions asked.
2. Don't play 8 home games - Hard to judge a team that plays 4 non-conference home games. Again, to be the best you should have to play more than 4 road games.
3. Play at least one non-conference game against a BCS Conference team - Voters need all the help they can get and playing 4 non-conference games against Sun Belt or WAC teams isn't helping them.
I would love to see these 3 rules instituted. It would be awesome just from the standpoint of how fans would react to a their teams schedule. A team that schedules a 1-AA team would be telling their fans "We don't think we are good enough to play for the Championship". It isn't asking much for teams to follow these 3 simple rules.
The following Top 15 teams would be eligible for the BCS Championship Game or an at-large bid using these 3 rules: 1. Alabama, 2. Texas, and 5. USC. That is it. The BCS needs to get involved in how teams schedule. Texas Tech, Florida State, and Georgia Tech played 2 1-AA schools this year. That is downright absurd. They shouldn't be rewarded for that. Florida State and LSU play 8 home games this year. That is a huge advantage that might be taken into factor by the voters should they be talking about playing for the BCS Championship Game, but it also helps the conference out tremendously because the voters most likely don't look at that when ranking the teams. If that means moving Florida State up 5-8 spots in the polls because they played 8 home games and 2 games against 1-AA schools, that is unfair to the other teams trying to get ranked. The BCS, if it is going to continue to exist, needs to make some changes and they need to start with forcing teams to schedule decent opponents.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
LeBron and The Big Apple
Let the mourning in the city of Cleveland begin. There is still hope that Lebron James and his current Cavaliers can win the NBA title in the next couple of years. If they don't, Kleenex will make a killing.
There have been rumors that LeBron James was going to be a Knick in 2010 for some time now. LeBron was very open about his liking of US Olympic and Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni. The Knicks did their part by trading Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph this past week. These two trades now give the Knicks more than $27 million of cap space for the summer of 2010. While other players like Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, and Steve Nash will be available, LeBron James is the big fish. These trades give the Knicks thoughts of not only LBJ, but also the ability to sign another marquee free agent in 2010 to pair him with. Would another player take a little less to play in NY with the best player in the game? The Knicks sure hope so.
It just so happened that LeBron and his Cleveland Cavaliers headed to Madison Square Garden on Tuesday to play the Knicks. While the crowd chanted "We want LeBron", LBJ did his own part by breaking out his new shoe appropriately called "The Big Apple Shoes". Here is a look at them:
Where these shoes a signal to the city of New York that LeBron may soon be coming? I think so. Why else would Nike and LBJ go through with the promotion? Either LBJ and Nike is playing the city for fools or they must think the public is stupid. I don't think that is the case. New York provides LBJ an opportunity to become a global icon. Also, there are rumors that just by playing for a team in LA or NY, Nike will give LeBron a bonus of $50 million. Looks like an easy decision to me. The city of New York should get ready for the inevitable...LeBron James in a Knicks jersey.
There have been rumors that LeBron James was going to be a Knick in 2010 for some time now. LeBron was very open about his liking of US Olympic and Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni. The Knicks did their part by trading Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph this past week. These two trades now give the Knicks more than $27 million of cap space for the summer of 2010. While other players like Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, and Steve Nash will be available, LeBron James is the big fish. These trades give the Knicks thoughts of not only LBJ, but also the ability to sign another marquee free agent in 2010 to pair him with. Would another player take a little less to play in NY with the best player in the game? The Knicks sure hope so.
It just so happened that LeBron and his Cleveland Cavaliers headed to Madison Square Garden on Tuesday to play the Knicks. While the crowd chanted "We want LeBron", LBJ did his own part by breaking out his new shoe appropriately called "The Big Apple Shoes". Here is a look at them:
Where these shoes a signal to the city of New York that LeBron may soon be coming? I think so. Why else would Nike and LBJ go through with the promotion? Either LBJ and Nike is playing the city for fools or they must think the public is stupid. I don't think that is the case. New York provides LBJ an opportunity to become a global icon. Also, there are rumors that just by playing for a team in LA or NY, Nike will give LeBron a bonus of $50 million. Looks like an easy decision to me. The city of New York should get ready for the inevitable...LeBron James in a Knicks jersey.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Could the media be right?
I keep hearing on TV that my beloved USC Trojans are "down" this year. I can understand the love for Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Florida ahead of us this year even though I don't believe it. What I can't understand, is hearing that Texas Tech should be in the National Championship Game ahead of USC if Oklahoma were to lose this week to Oklahoma State. Seriously? A team that just lost by 44 would win the Big 12 South and play for the Big 12 Championship and thus automatically be in the BCS Championship game. They lost by 44. Texas Tech also played 2 1-AA teams this year. Should they be rewarded for that? Get ready for another blowout if this happens. Sorry media. Here are some reasons that USC should be in the BCS Championship Game:
- USC never gets blown out.
- 79-9 last 7 years
- 9 losses by combined 36 points!
- 3-0 vs ranked opponents this year outscoring them 96-16
- #1 defense in country
- #2 point differential in country
- 5-1 in BCS Games
- 11 wins 6 straight seasons (soon to be 7)
USC is second in the nation in point differential at 30.1 points per game. How does that compare to the last 7 USC teams, including the undefeated 2005 team?
2002 17.2
2003 22.7
2004 25.2
2005 26.3
2006 15.3
2007 16.6
2008 30.1
This years team is the best in the Pete Carroll era in point differential. Must be a bad year for the mighty Trojans! I don't see how USC is "down" this year. Must be the offense then. The media thinks the reason is because of the offense. How does USC points per game look for the last 7 years?
2002 35.8
2003 41.1
2004 38.2
2005 49.1
2006 30.5
2007 32.6
2008 38.4
This years team is the third highest scoring team of the Pete Carroll era. While the offense has been inconsistent at times, the talent is obviously still there.
I am biased, but I still think USC deserves a shot to play for the title if Oklahoma loses this week. Who wants to watch another blowout BCS Championship Game? Oklahoma has lost 4 straight BCS Games but should they win out, they will play the SEC Champion for the title. If they should lose though, the Trojans are the team that needs to be there!
- USC never gets blown out.
- 79-9 last 7 years
- 9 losses by combined 36 points!
- 3-0 vs ranked opponents this year outscoring them 96-16
- #1 defense in country
- #2 point differential in country
- 5-1 in BCS Games
- 11 wins 6 straight seasons (soon to be 7)
USC is second in the nation in point differential at 30.1 points per game. How does that compare to the last 7 USC teams, including the undefeated 2005 team?
2002 17.2
2003 22.7
2004 25.2
2005 26.3
2006 15.3
2007 16.6
2008 30.1
This years team is the best in the Pete Carroll era in point differential. Must be a bad year for the mighty Trojans! I don't see how USC is "down" this year. Must be the offense then. The media thinks the reason is because of the offense. How does USC points per game look for the last 7 years?
2002 35.8
2003 41.1
2004 38.2
2005 49.1
2006 30.5
2007 32.6
2008 38.4
This years team is the third highest scoring team of the Pete Carroll era. While the offense has been inconsistent at times, the talent is obviously still there.
I am biased, but I still think USC deserves a shot to play for the title if Oklahoma loses this week. Who wants to watch another blowout BCS Championship Game? Oklahoma has lost 4 straight BCS Games but should they win out, they will play the SEC Champion for the title. If they should lose though, the Trojans are the team that needs to be there!
Monday, November 24, 2008
Updated BCS Projections (11/24)
Wow, another exciting weekend in college football. With only 2 more weeks some things are starting to become more clear. Some teams have already qualified (Penn State and Utah) for the BCS while some are making their push. Lets look at the top 5 teams in the BCS and their chances to play in the BCS championship game and also my projected BCS game participants. To get a better look at each team, lets look at each teams Strength of Schedule (games played to date) and point differential per game (doesn't include games vs 1-AA teams).
BCS Standings
1. Alabama (SOS: 65, PD: 16.2) - The last undefeated team in a BCS conference. Having the 65th ranked schedule in the country and not playing Florida in the regular season has helped tremendously. Alabama has won every game but have done so with the least margin of any of the top 7 teams. Factor in that they haven't lost and it makes their PD look that much worse. The problem for Alabama is that they will play Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Auburn, lose to Florida
2. Texas (SOS: 5, PD: 24.0) - Texas was thought to be in a good position because they beat Oklahoma earlier in the year and would likely win a tiebreaker in a 3-way tie in the Big 12 South. Oklahoma may have screwed that up with a complete blow-out of Texas Tech. Texas has played a very tough schedule and their point differential looks very good when the SOS is factored in. If they don't win play for the Big 12 Championship, will they be chosen to play for the BCS Championship?
Prediction: 11-1 beat Texas A&M
3. Oklahoma (SOS: 25, PD: 26.7) - Oklahoma's thrashing of Texas Tech may have swayed enough voters to put them in a position to play for the Big 12 Championship. They have scored 60+ points 3 games in a row. With a tough game at Oklahoma State this weekend, their SOS will rise and probably put them in the BCS Top 2. They have lost 4 straight BCS games so they better hope that doesn't enter into the voters minds.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Oklahoma State and Missouri
4. Florida (SOS: 32, PD: 32.8) - Florida has beaten up teams lately in the SEC and their PD of 32.8 is very impressive. The SOS will rise as well with games at Florida State and the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. If they win out, they will play for the BCS Championship.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Florida State and Alabama
5. USC (SOS: 30, PD: 30.1) - USC has the second highest PD in the nation (only giving up 8.3 ppg) and played a relatively tough schedule so far. The problem, Notre Dame and UCLA are the last teams and wont give them enough leverage with the voters unless some upsets occur above them.
Prediction: 11-1 beat Notre Dame and UCLA
7. Texas Tech (SOS: 19, PD: 16.2) - Can a team that lost by 44 be considered one of the top 2 teams in the country? I don't think so, but they still have a shot to play for the BCS Championship. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech wins the Big 12 South. The winner of the Big 12 has already been put in the BCS Championship Game by the media, but did this weekend change that perception if the winner is Texas Tech? Texas Tech would need to be pushed hard by the voters to get over Texas, USC, and Utah. Would add another bullet to the playoff proponents and further make the BCS the laughing stock of sports if it were to happen.
Prediction: 11-1 beat Baylor.
Alright using my predictions here are the BCS Bowl Participants as I see them this week. Keep in mind the BCS selection rules. Rather than write them all out, here is a link -
BCS Championship Game
BCS 1 vs BCS 2
Oklahoma vs Florida
Creates more controversy since Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head.
Rose Bowl
PAC-10 vs Big 10
USC vs Penn State
Oregon State has a tough game at home against Oregon in the Civil War. I think Oregon wins and thus, the PAC-10 loses a team in the BCS.
Fiesta Bowl
Big 12 vs At-Large
Texas vs Ohio State
Fiesta gets to choose an at-large team first this year. Ohio State has been good to them recently (2003, 2004, 2006). Utah (2005) and Boise State (2007) has as well. It will come down to money and Ohio State will bring that.
Sugar Bowl
SEC vs At-Large
Alabama vs Utah
USC might be a possibility if Oregon State wins (Fiesta would have to pass them up with Utah) and would create a great matchup. The Sugar Bowl will pit a Non-BCS team against a SEC team for the second year in a row.
Orange Bowl
ACC vs At-Large (usually Big East, but doesn't have to be)
Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati
Cant wait to next week to see how this has completely blown up again.
BCS Standings
1. Alabama (SOS: 65, PD: 16.2) - The last undefeated team in a BCS conference. Having the 65th ranked schedule in the country and not playing Florida in the regular season has helped tremendously. Alabama has won every game but have done so with the least margin of any of the top 7 teams. Factor in that they haven't lost and it makes their PD look that much worse. The problem for Alabama is that they will play Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Auburn, lose to Florida
2. Texas (SOS: 5, PD: 24.0) - Texas was thought to be in a good position because they beat Oklahoma earlier in the year and would likely win a tiebreaker in a 3-way tie in the Big 12 South. Oklahoma may have screwed that up with a complete blow-out of Texas Tech. Texas has played a very tough schedule and their point differential looks very good when the SOS is factored in. If they don't win play for the Big 12 Championship, will they be chosen to play for the BCS Championship?
Prediction: 11-1 beat Texas A&M
3. Oklahoma (SOS: 25, PD: 26.7) - Oklahoma's thrashing of Texas Tech may have swayed enough voters to put them in a position to play for the Big 12 Championship. They have scored 60+ points 3 games in a row. With a tough game at Oklahoma State this weekend, their SOS will rise and probably put them in the BCS Top 2. They have lost 4 straight BCS games so they better hope that doesn't enter into the voters minds.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Oklahoma State and Missouri
4. Florida (SOS: 32, PD: 32.8) - Florida has beaten up teams lately in the SEC and their PD of 32.8 is very impressive. The SOS will rise as well with games at Florida State and the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. If they win out, they will play for the BCS Championship.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Florida State and Alabama
5. USC (SOS: 30, PD: 30.1) - USC has the second highest PD in the nation (only giving up 8.3 ppg) and played a relatively tough schedule so far. The problem, Notre Dame and UCLA are the last teams and wont give them enough leverage with the voters unless some upsets occur above them.
Prediction: 11-1 beat Notre Dame and UCLA
7. Texas Tech (SOS: 19, PD: 16.2) - Can a team that lost by 44 be considered one of the top 2 teams in the country? I don't think so, but they still have a shot to play for the BCS Championship. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech wins the Big 12 South. The winner of the Big 12 has already been put in the BCS Championship Game by the media, but did this weekend change that perception if the winner is Texas Tech? Texas Tech would need to be pushed hard by the voters to get over Texas, USC, and Utah. Would add another bullet to the playoff proponents and further make the BCS the laughing stock of sports if it were to happen.
Prediction: 11-1 beat Baylor.
Alright using my predictions here are the BCS Bowl Participants as I see them this week. Keep in mind the BCS selection rules. Rather than write them all out, here is a link -
BCS Championship Game
BCS 1 vs BCS 2
Oklahoma vs Florida
Creates more controversy since Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head.
Rose Bowl
PAC-10 vs Big 10
USC vs Penn State
Oregon State has a tough game at home against Oregon in the Civil War. I think Oregon wins and thus, the PAC-10 loses a team in the BCS.
Fiesta Bowl
Big 12 vs At-Large
Texas vs Ohio State
Fiesta gets to choose an at-large team first this year. Ohio State has been good to them recently (2003, 2004, 2006). Utah (2005) and Boise State (2007) has as well. It will come down to money and Ohio State will bring that.
Sugar Bowl
SEC vs At-Large
Alabama vs Utah
USC might be a possibility if Oregon State wins (Fiesta would have to pass them up with Utah) and would create a great matchup. The Sugar Bowl will pit a Non-BCS team against a SEC team for the second year in a row.
Orange Bowl
ACC vs At-Large (usually Big East, but doesn't have to be)
Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati
Cant wait to next week to see how this has completely blown up again.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
E"SEC"PN
I was displeased with the news yesterday that ESPN will have the television rights to the BCS games until 2014. First and foremost, this weakens any stance of a playoff system. ESPN has also reportedly put a moratorium on all columnists and radio personalities from even mentioning the word "playoffs" when it comes to college football. That is a little extreme, but I guess they can control their employees. Note to ESPN, just because your network is prohibited from mentioning it doesn't mean that the topic will just go away.
Being the PAC-10 guy that I am, this makes me even more furious. It has been difficult enough living on the East Coast the last 5 years and never even watching PAC-10 teams play unless USC was involved. Factor in the time zone difference and people on the East Coast would be lucky to watch 5 minutes of Oregon or California every year. People on the East Coast would be shocked to hear that Oregon State has won 19 games the last two seasons and have won 4 consecutive bowl games. No wonder they are generally an afterthought to mid-level SEC teams that are constantly on national TV. Back on topic....
I have always thought there was some bias on ESPN since they televise a lot of SEC games. They want to constantly promote the league so their ratings will increase. With both ESPN and CBS broadcasting games, essentially every SEC football game will be televised nationally. Well, I came across this note on collegefootballnews.com yesterday and it hit home for me:
Being the PAC-10 guy that I am, this makes me even more furious. It has been difficult enough living on the East Coast the last 5 years and never even watching PAC-10 teams play unless USC was involved. Factor in the time zone difference and people on the East Coast would be lucky to watch 5 minutes of Oregon or California every year. People on the East Coast would be shocked to hear that Oregon State has won 19 games the last two seasons and have won 4 consecutive bowl games. No wonder they are generally an afterthought to mid-level SEC teams that are constantly on national TV. Back on topic....
I have always thought there was some bias on ESPN since they televise a lot of SEC games. They want to constantly promote the league so their ratings will increase. With both ESPN and CBS broadcasting games, essentially every SEC football game will be televised nationally. Well, I came across this note on collegefootballnews.com yesterday and it hit home for me:
"ESPN appears to be on the verge of getting the rights for the BCS games for 2011 and beyond. Meanwhile, the network has ponied up $2.5 billion for the rights to televise the SEC games other than the one CBS will snag for its game of the week. That means ESPN will be the equivalent of the SEC Network during football seasons. As if the $55 million a year the SEC will be getting from the deal ins’t enough, let’s just say it’ll be in the Boo-Ya’s best interest if the league just so happens to be promoted all the time when it comes to lobbying efforts to get an SEC team into the national title. Also, be prepared for any and all critical thought when it comes to BCS discussion to be gone from the Worldwide Leader, and for any hint of the P-word, be it for an eight-team tourney or a plus-one format, to be squashed like Harold Reynolds."This should bother anyone who is a fan of a team in another conference. ESPN will be pushing hard on a weekly basis to get SEC teams ranked higher since that will increase their ratings. If you think I am the only one bothered by this, consider these words from Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops during the 2004 season:
"I'm aware of what their contracts are with. Whether people are directed in certain ways, I'm not going to say that. I think all the people ought to be aware who their contracts are with and what some of their agendas may be. I just understand TV and what happens with programs. Ratings matter. I think it's fair to say, too, they have a contract with the SEC. I'm fully aware of that. I can't be the only one who recognizes that. It's impossible to remove agendas. They have producers and ratings. I don't know what impact they have, but I'm sure they have some."For those of us who can't take any more of ESPN shoving the SEC down our throats, it's only just begun.
Monday, November 17, 2008
The Perfect Season
While some people are focusing on the undefeated Tennessee Titans and their quest to go 16-0, I would like to focus on something even more rare. The Detroit Lions are on pace to have the worst record in NFL history. The current record is held by the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 0-14. Can the Lions do the unthinkable and go 0-16? I sure hope so. This is a team that drafted a QB (Drew Stanton) in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft but have recently signed Dante Culpepper to be the starting QB even though he hadnt played in an NFL game all season and wasn't even invited to training camp by any of the NFL's 32 teams. This is a team that drafted WR's in top of the draft 4 out of 5 years. This team has became the laughing-stock of the league under the direction of Matt Millen and finishing 2008 winless would be the perfect way to cap the Millen era. Here are the last 6 games for the Lions and the percentage I think they have to win that game.
Week 12 at home vs Tampa Bay (7-3) - 10%. Tampa Bay's defense and ability to not turn the ball over should be enough to beat the Lions. Tampa Bay should be able to run the ball all day and get after Dante Culpepper and force some turnovers.
Week 13 at home vs Tennessee (10-0) - 0%. Its going to be tough for Detroit to get anything going against Tennessee. Tennessee will pound the ball against Detroit's soft front seven. Again the defense of the Titans should be able to tee off on Dante Culpepper and force turnovers. The game is on Thanksgiving Day only 4 days after the Tampa Bay game which wont give the Lions defenders much time to recover from the beating they will take vs the Bucs and it will be a long day.
Week 14 at home vs Minnesota (5-5) - 25%. Third straight home game, but again its going to be tough to beat the Vikings and Adrian Peterson. After getting beat up by the Bucs and Titans, the last thing the Lions defense will want to see is the beast that is Adrian Peterson. The first meeting in Minnesota was a close game, but this one might not be. Throw in the fact that the Vikins will desperately need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive and all signs point to another Lions loss.
Week 15 on road vs Indianapolis (6-4) - 0%. Unless Peyton Manning is injured and not playing in this game, the Lions will have no chance to win. The Colts will be fighting for a wild card spot and wont lose. Detroit is giving up 30.8 points per game and this should be a field day for the Colts offense.
Week 16 at home vs New Orleans (5-5) - 33%. By this time the Saints may be out of the wild card race, but they will keep fighting. Again Detroit's defense will be exploited by the Saints offense. The silver lining for the Lions is that the Saints give up 24.9 points per game and can be vunerable to the pass. In the end, the Saints will have too much offensive firepower for the Lions defense.
Week 17 at Green Bay (5-5) - 25%. The only reason the percentage is so high on this game is because the NFC North Champion should be locked into the 4th seed of the playoffs by the last week of the season. There is a chance that the Packers will not benefit from winning this game if they have the division wrapped up by Week 17. If they don't and the Packer need to win, the chances would diminish greatly for a Lions win.
The schedule is not favorable down the stretch for a Lions win. Every one of their last six games should have playoff implications. While this gives the Lions motivation to be a spoiler, it also means the competition should be ready to play as well. I don't see the Lions winning any of these games and finishing the season "perfect". 0-16 here we come!
Week 12 at home vs Tampa Bay (7-3) - 10%. Tampa Bay's defense and ability to not turn the ball over should be enough to beat the Lions. Tampa Bay should be able to run the ball all day and get after Dante Culpepper and force some turnovers.
Week 13 at home vs Tennessee (10-0) - 0%. Its going to be tough for Detroit to get anything going against Tennessee. Tennessee will pound the ball against Detroit's soft front seven. Again the defense of the Titans should be able to tee off on Dante Culpepper and force turnovers. The game is on Thanksgiving Day only 4 days after the Tampa Bay game which wont give the Lions defenders much time to recover from the beating they will take vs the Bucs and it will be a long day.
Week 14 at home vs Minnesota (5-5) - 25%. Third straight home game, but again its going to be tough to beat the Vikings and Adrian Peterson. After getting beat up by the Bucs and Titans, the last thing the Lions defense will want to see is the beast that is Adrian Peterson. The first meeting in Minnesota was a close game, but this one might not be. Throw in the fact that the Vikins will desperately need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive and all signs point to another Lions loss.
Week 15 on road vs Indianapolis (6-4) - 0%. Unless Peyton Manning is injured and not playing in this game, the Lions will have no chance to win. The Colts will be fighting for a wild card spot and wont lose. Detroit is giving up 30.8 points per game and this should be a field day for the Colts offense.
Week 16 at home vs New Orleans (5-5) - 33%. By this time the Saints may be out of the wild card race, but they will keep fighting. Again Detroit's defense will be exploited by the Saints offense. The silver lining for the Lions is that the Saints give up 24.9 points per game and can be vunerable to the pass. In the end, the Saints will have too much offensive firepower for the Lions defense.
Week 17 at Green Bay (5-5) - 25%. The only reason the percentage is so high on this game is because the NFC North Champion should be locked into the 4th seed of the playoffs by the last week of the season. There is a chance that the Packers will not benefit from winning this game if they have the division wrapped up by Week 17. If they don't and the Packer need to win, the chances would diminish greatly for a Lions win.
The schedule is not favorable down the stretch for a Lions win. Every one of their last six games should have playoff implications. While this gives the Lions motivation to be a spoiler, it also means the competition should be ready to play as well. I don't see the Lions winning any of these games and finishing the season "perfect". 0-16 here we come!
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Hot Stove Hitters
We already looked at the top 5 pitchers on the free agent market, so lets look at the top 5 hitters.
Manny Ramirez - Manny is looking to cash in after a great run with the Dodgers. Will someone give him a 4 year, $100 million deal? Will he go back to his hometown of New York City? The best right-handed hitter of his era, will be in high demand. Ultimately, I don't see either NY team paying him the amount per year that he wants because of their pitching issues. The Dodgers are on the record for a 2-3 year deal at $25 million per year. The one team no one is talking about that could swoop in is the Angels. Manny loved LA and he could DH some with the Angels. The Angels probably will move away from Teixeira if the negotiations drag and could instantly upgrade their biggest weakness (the ability to hit in the postseason). Prediction: Angels - 4 years, $88 million
Mark Teixiera - He will be the hitter in the highest demand this off-season. He is a switch-hitting RBI machine who also is a Gold Glove first baseman. While the Angels would love to keep him, his agent Scott Boras likes to drag out negotiations and the Angels have already stated they wont wait long. I expect the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles as the main suitors. Teixiera has said in the past he would love to play for his hometown O's (he is from Annapolis, MD). While the Yankees will probably offer the most money, the O's will make a strong push to bring him home. If the O's allow him to go to one of their rivals, then it would be a major blow. Prediction: Yankees - 7 years, $155 million
Adam Dunn - This one name not being bantered about a whole bunch for a guy that hits 40 HR's every year. His low batting average and below average defensive skills could be the main reason. He is a run producer with power so he will get paid. He is the only player to hit 40 HR's every year since 2004 in the majors. He is an AL player so he should draw most interest from teams in that league with the ability to DH him. Prediction: Indians - 5 years, $75 million
Orlando Hudson - Another player whose sum in more than the parts. He is a gamer who also is one of the best defensive second baseman in the majors. While he doesn't have above average power or speed, he is a complete player. His injuries the last two years could spark concerns about his durability. The White Sox and Mets seem to be the most logical destinations. The White Sox have a need and can slide Alexi Ramirez over to shortstop. Prediction: White Sox - 4 years, $40 million
Pat Burrell - The Phillies were supposedly after Matt Holliday, but with news that he was traded to Oakland yesterday, the World Champions will focus on re-signing him. A few teams will be looking for some offense at LF this off-season and could drive up the price on Burrell. The Angels, Mets, Yankees, Indians, and Phillies will be in play depending on where Manny ends up. Prediction: Phillies - 4 years, $48 million
Lets see what happens. I hope I am right on a couple of them.
Manny Ramirez - Manny is looking to cash in after a great run with the Dodgers. Will someone give him a 4 year, $100 million deal? Will he go back to his hometown of New York City? The best right-handed hitter of his era, will be in high demand. Ultimately, I don't see either NY team paying him the amount per year that he wants because of their pitching issues. The Dodgers are on the record for a 2-3 year deal at $25 million per year. The one team no one is talking about that could swoop in is the Angels. Manny loved LA and he could DH some with the Angels. The Angels probably will move away from Teixeira if the negotiations drag and could instantly upgrade their biggest weakness (the ability to hit in the postseason). Prediction: Angels - 4 years, $88 million
Mark Teixiera - He will be the hitter in the highest demand this off-season. He is a switch-hitting RBI machine who also is a Gold Glove first baseman. While the Angels would love to keep him, his agent Scott Boras likes to drag out negotiations and the Angels have already stated they wont wait long. I expect the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles as the main suitors. Teixiera has said in the past he would love to play for his hometown O's (he is from Annapolis, MD). While the Yankees will probably offer the most money, the O's will make a strong push to bring him home. If the O's allow him to go to one of their rivals, then it would be a major blow. Prediction: Yankees - 7 years, $155 million
Adam Dunn - This one name not being bantered about a whole bunch for a guy that hits 40 HR's every year. His low batting average and below average defensive skills could be the main reason. He is a run producer with power so he will get paid. He is the only player to hit 40 HR's every year since 2004 in the majors. He is an AL player so he should draw most interest from teams in that league with the ability to DH him. Prediction: Indians - 5 years, $75 million
Orlando Hudson - Another player whose sum in more than the parts. He is a gamer who also is one of the best defensive second baseman in the majors. While he doesn't have above average power or speed, he is a complete player. His injuries the last two years could spark concerns about his durability. The White Sox and Mets seem to be the most logical destinations. The White Sox have a need and can slide Alexi Ramirez over to shortstop. Prediction: White Sox - 4 years, $40 million
Pat Burrell - The Phillies were supposedly after Matt Holliday, but with news that he was traded to Oakland yesterday, the World Champions will focus on re-signing him. A few teams will be looking for some offense at LF this off-season and could drive up the price on Burrell. The Angels, Mets, Yankees, Indians, and Phillies will be in play depending on where Manny ends up. Prediction: Phillies - 4 years, $48 million
Lets see what happens. I hope I am right on a couple of them.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Updated BCS Projections
After another exciting weekend of college football the picture to the BCS National Championship game gets clearer. Some things to consider....Although Texas Tech and Alabama control their own destiny to this game, I don't see either making it. The most interesting subplot is who wins the Big 12 South? Can two teams from the same division in the same conference play for the BCS Championship game? If Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma (which I think they will), then there might be a three-way tie on top of the Big 12 South. The tiebreaker that will decide the division will be the highest ranked team in the BCS. Hard to see Texas losing that one since they beat Oklahoma and lost the earliest. Here are my updated BCS Projections:
BCS National Championship Game
Texas vs Florida
Rose Bowl
USC vs Penn St.
Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs Ohio St.*
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs Utah*
Orange Bowl
Pitt vs Florida St.
The two most interesting races might be for the second Big 12 bid and the last at-large bid. Assuming Texas wins the tiebreaker to play in the Big 12 Championship game, that leaves Oklahoma and Texas Tech with one loss. Oklahoma would have beaten Texas Tech in my scenario but that doesn't mean that the Fiesta Bowl will take them over Texas Tech. The Fiesta Bowl might feel more comfortable will a proven program since they will most likely end up with Utah or Boise St. as the opponent. As for the last at-large bid, this one will be interesting as well. If Boise St. and Utah finish undefeated and in the top 12 of the final rankings, only 1 is guaranteed a spot. Utah will most likely be ranked higher in the final BCS standings and thus earn the automatic bid. Will the Sugar Bowl select Boise St. as the opponent for the SEC team? The other options are limited. The Big 12 and SEC can only send 2 teams. The PAC-10, ACC, and Big East most likely wont have another team ranked high enough to be eligible. That leaves only Boise St. and Ohio St. to choose from. Ohio St. has been crushed by SEC teams recently. Boise St. beat Oklahoma in one of the most memorable bowl games in recent history. Ultimately, I think Ohio State's history and ability to bring big money to the game will win out. Of course, if Oregon State wins out they will be in the Rose Bowl. That will allow USC to take the final at-large bid and slide over to the Sugar Bowl. The last couple weeks should be exciting.
BCS National Championship Game
Texas vs Florida
Rose Bowl
USC vs Penn St.
Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs Ohio St.*
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs Utah*
Orange Bowl
Pitt vs Florida St.
The two most interesting races might be for the second Big 12 bid and the last at-large bid. Assuming Texas wins the tiebreaker to play in the Big 12 Championship game, that leaves Oklahoma and Texas Tech with one loss. Oklahoma would have beaten Texas Tech in my scenario but that doesn't mean that the Fiesta Bowl will take them over Texas Tech. The Fiesta Bowl might feel more comfortable will a proven program since they will most likely end up with Utah or Boise St. as the opponent. As for the last at-large bid, this one will be interesting as well. If Boise St. and Utah finish undefeated and in the top 12 of the final rankings, only 1 is guaranteed a spot. Utah will most likely be ranked higher in the final BCS standings and thus earn the automatic bid. Will the Sugar Bowl select Boise St. as the opponent for the SEC team? The other options are limited. The Big 12 and SEC can only send 2 teams. The PAC-10, ACC, and Big East most likely wont have another team ranked high enough to be eligible. That leaves only Boise St. and Ohio St. to choose from. Ohio St. has been crushed by SEC teams recently. Boise St. beat Oklahoma in one of the most memorable bowl games in recent history. Ultimately, I think Ohio State's history and ability to bring big money to the game will win out. Of course, if Oregon State wins out they will be in the Rose Bowl. That will allow USC to take the final at-large bid and slide over to the Sugar Bowl. The last couple weeks should be exciting.
Friday, November 7, 2008
The Hot Stove
It is getting close to Major League Baseball Free Agency, so lets take a look at the top guys available and guess where they will end up. (It will be interesting to see how many teams are willing to add years to these monstrous contracts in order to get them inked. I think the length of the contracts shortens a little from what the players are seeking.)
Pitchers
C.C. Sabathia - A lot of "experts" see the Yankees ultimately getting the biggest FA fish. While, they will have the most money, there are rumors that C.C. wants to go back to his home state of California. If the Dodgers can't resign Manny, look for them to get into the C.C. sweepstakes. The Dodgers will probably lose Derek Lowe and Brad Penny so they will need a SP. Prediction: Dodgers - 6 years, $140 million
A.J Burnett - Walked away from the final 2 years of his previous contract to become a FA. The Yankees saw a lot of him in the AL East. The Yanks are desperate for starting pitching and if they miss out on C.C. this one should be a lock. Prediction: Yankees - 4 years, $60 million
Derek Lowe - Very solid pitcher the last couple of years. He is looking to head back to the East Coast and will have plenty of suitors available there. Might be best value on FA market. The Mets will be looking to replace Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez in the rotation. Lowe would fit in great between Santana and Pelfrey. Prediction: Mets - 3 years, $39 million
Ben Sheets - Injuries have really hurt his value over the last couple of years. Teams love his stuff, but his lack of innings and trips the DL will bring his value down. Prediction: Astros - 4 years, $60 million
Francisco Rodriguez - Might be toughest guy to predict. The Angels love him, but haven't shown any signs of meeting his demands of 5 years and $75 million. With Shields and Arredondo ready to take over late inning duties, closer isn't a huge need for the Angels. Most big market clubs already are set at closer. The Cardinals are going to need bullpen help and could be the spot. A team that could surprise and make a run is the Tampa Bay Rays. Joe Maddon has history with K-Rod from his time in Anaheim and this signing would signal to the rest of the league that the Rays are here to stay. Prediction: Cardinals - 5 years, $60 million
Monday we look at the top 5 hitters.
Pitchers
C.C. Sabathia - A lot of "experts" see the Yankees ultimately getting the biggest FA fish. While, they will have the most money, there are rumors that C.C. wants to go back to his home state of California. If the Dodgers can't resign Manny, look for them to get into the C.C. sweepstakes. The Dodgers will probably lose Derek Lowe and Brad Penny so they will need a SP. Prediction: Dodgers - 6 years, $140 million
A.J Burnett - Walked away from the final 2 years of his previous contract to become a FA. The Yankees saw a lot of him in the AL East. The Yanks are desperate for starting pitching and if they miss out on C.C. this one should be a lock. Prediction: Yankees - 4 years, $60 million
Derek Lowe - Very solid pitcher the last couple of years. He is looking to head back to the East Coast and will have plenty of suitors available there. Might be best value on FA market. The Mets will be looking to replace Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez in the rotation. Lowe would fit in great between Santana and Pelfrey. Prediction: Mets - 3 years, $39 million
Ben Sheets - Injuries have really hurt his value over the last couple of years. Teams love his stuff, but his lack of innings and trips the DL will bring his value down. Prediction: Astros - 4 years, $60 million
Francisco Rodriguez - Might be toughest guy to predict. The Angels love him, but haven't shown any signs of meeting his demands of 5 years and $75 million. With Shields and Arredondo ready to take over late inning duties, closer isn't a huge need for the Angels. Most big market clubs already are set at closer. The Cardinals are going to need bullpen help and could be the spot. A team that could surprise and make a run is the Tampa Bay Rays. Joe Maddon has history with K-Rod from his time in Anaheim and this signing would signal to the rest of the league that the Rays are here to stay. Prediction: Cardinals - 5 years, $60 million
Monday we look at the top 5 hitters.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
USC vs Alabama
I keep hearing how the SEC schedule is what separates them from the other conferences. I was curious how Alabama's schedule would look next to USC's. What is the record of all Alabama's opponents and what is the record of all USC's oppenents? This obviously leaves out a lot of subjective measures (ie how many opponents wins are quality, how many opponents wins came against 1-AA schools, how many ranked teams were played) but I just wanted the cold hard records. So here are the facts.
Alabama
Clemson............4-4
Tulane.............2-6
Western Kentucky...2-7
Arkansas...........4-5
Georgia............7-2
Kentucky...........6-3
Ole Miss...........5-4
Tennessee..........3-6
Arkansas State.....4-4
LSU................6-2
Mississippi State..3-6
Auburn.............4-5
Total..............50-54
USC
Virginia...........5-4
Ohio State.........7-2
Oregon State.......5-3
Oregon.............6-2
Arizona State......2-6
Washington.........0-8
Arizona............5-3
Washington State...1-8
California.........6-2
Stanford...........5-4
Notre Dame.........5-3
UCLA...............3-5
Total..............50-51
Interesting that is was so close and actually USC's opponents record was slightly better even with Washington and Washington state a combined 1-16.
Alabama
Clemson............4-4
Tulane.............2-6
Western Kentucky...2-7
Arkansas...........4-5
Georgia............7-2
Kentucky...........6-3
Ole Miss...........5-4
Tennessee..........3-6
Arkansas State.....4-4
LSU................6-2
Mississippi State..3-6
Auburn.............4-5
Total..............50-54
USC
Virginia...........5-4
Ohio State.........7-2
Oregon State.......5-3
Oregon.............6-2
Arizona State......2-6
Washington.........0-8
Arizona............5-3
Washington State...1-8
California.........6-2
Stanford...........5-4
Notre Dame.........5-3
UCLA...............3-5
Total..............50-51
Interesting that is was so close and actually USC's opponents record was slightly better even with Washington and Washington state a combined 1-16.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
NBA Predictions
Thought I would mix it up and get away from College Football for a day or so. It's time to predict the NBA playoffs! The good thing about blogging is that everyone can check this out come April and see how many I got right. I always love ripping the media when they are wrong, but at least they are out there with their predictions. Lets see how close I can get.
Western Conference
1. LA Lakers* - Too much depth plus Kobe = #1 seed.
2. New Orleans* - Best PG in the league.
3. Utah* - Maybe not 3rd best team, but will win the Northwest Division.
4. Houston - Wouldn't want to play them, but injuries are concern.
5. Phoenix - Can Shaq or Nash make it through 82 games?
6. Dallas - Kidd trade didn't make them better.
7. San Antonio - Ginobli injury drives them down the to the 7th seed.
8. Portland - Oden is out for now, but good young nucleus should sneak them in.
Eastern Conference
1. Boston* - Best trio in conference.
2. Cleveland* - LeBron has some help, but is it enough?
3. Orlando* - Dwight Howard should help them win the South.
4. Detroit - Can Iverson mesh and play the role as well as Chauncey?
5. Toronto - Calderon becoming an All-Star caliber PG and better team than players.
6. Chicago - Rose looks good and team has ability to score they haven't had in years.
7. Philadelphia - Elton Brand should help them get in playoffs.
8. Atlanta - Good young players that are getting used to winning some games.
* denotes Division Champ
First Round
LA Lakers over Portland
New Orleans over San Antonio
Utah over Dallas
Phoenix over Houston
Boston over Atlanta
Cleveland over Philadelphia
Orlando over Chicago
Toronto over Detroit
Second Round
LA Lakers over Phoenix
New Orleans over Utah
Boston over Toronto
Cleveland over Orlando
Conference Finals
LA Lakers over New Orleans
Cleveland over Boston
Finals
LA Lakers over Cleveland
The NBA would love that Finals match up. Kobe vs LeBron. I think the Lakers would have too much depth and firepower in the front court for the Cavaliers to handle. Only time will tell.
Western Conference
1. LA Lakers* - Too much depth plus Kobe = #1 seed.
2. New Orleans* - Best PG in the league.
3. Utah* - Maybe not 3rd best team, but will win the Northwest Division.
4. Houston - Wouldn't want to play them, but injuries are concern.
5. Phoenix - Can Shaq or Nash make it through 82 games?
6. Dallas - Kidd trade didn't make them better.
7. San Antonio - Ginobli injury drives them down the to the 7th seed.
8. Portland - Oden is out for now, but good young nucleus should sneak them in.
Eastern Conference
1. Boston* - Best trio in conference.
2. Cleveland* - LeBron has some help, but is it enough?
3. Orlando* - Dwight Howard should help them win the South.
4. Detroit - Can Iverson mesh and play the role as well as Chauncey?
5. Toronto - Calderon becoming an All-Star caliber PG and better team than players.
6. Chicago - Rose looks good and team has ability to score they haven't had in years.
7. Philadelphia - Elton Brand should help them get in playoffs.
8. Atlanta - Good young players that are getting used to winning some games.
* denotes Division Champ
First Round
LA Lakers over Portland
New Orleans over San Antonio
Utah over Dallas
Phoenix over Houston
Boston over Atlanta
Cleveland over Philadelphia
Orlando over Chicago
Toronto over Detroit
Second Round
LA Lakers over Phoenix
New Orleans over Utah
Boston over Toronto
Cleveland over Orlando
Conference Finals
LA Lakers over New Orleans
Cleveland over Boston
Finals
LA Lakers over Cleveland
The NBA would love that Finals match up. Kobe vs LeBron. I think the Lakers would have too much depth and firepower in the front court for the Cavaliers to handle. Only time will tell.
Monday, November 3, 2008
PAC-10 Gets the Shaft From Media
Another wild weekend in college football. I think I have finally figured out how a conference can become "strong". I have noticed a trend and am here to call out the media who cant figure this out. Here they are:
6 ways to be the "best" in media's eye's:
1. Have conference schedule as many 1-AA teams as possible
2. Have every team in conference play at least 3 home non-conference games
3. Have conferenece play the least amount of ranked non-conference games as possible
4. Have conference schedule bottom feeders early to inflate records of better teams
5. Schedule all 4 non-conference games before any conference games
6. Be in a 12 team conference so that you get to skip better teams in other division (Must be nice for Florida and Alabama to not have to play this year)
(Before you start crying, I understand Florida would have to play Alabama in the SEC championship game. I am not disputing that can hurt a teams chances to play in the National Championship Game. But it is convienent for Georgia and LSU to use the SEC Championship Game as an excuse to not play anyone out of conference when it wont affect them this year. But I digress.)
Before you know it your conference has multiple teams ranked and since they got to a point of being ranked highly, they are regarded as better than a team that started 5-3 even if both end up 9-3. I have some numbers to prove that scheduling is almost all that matters in college football.
I believe that the PAC-10 is being held to a different standard than the rest of the nation. Having to play the 9th conference game is a huge disadvantage to the "media" credibility of the league. I already proved that in an earlier post (highest possible winning percentage of all teams is .625 vs .667 or higher for every other conference). Also, I decided to look into the games that they can control...ie non-conference games. The PAC-10 has to start conference games before everyone else and thus wont have as many 4-0 or 5-0 teams early which hurts the conference in the eye's of the media. If Oregon doesnt get to 5-0 or 6-0 because they play USC and Boise State early then even if they end up 9-3 they wont be ranked as high as a team that started 7-0 and ended 9-3.
I found some shocking numbers that would to me, proves the PAC-10 is a little better than given credit for and the Big 12 and SEC aren't quite as good as believed. Here they are:
Out of conference records
SEC.......32-7....821
Big 12....38-10...792
ACC.......33-10...767
Big 10....31-11...738
Big East..26-12...684
PAC-10....13-16...448
Now that is what he media reports and what makes people believe the PAC-10 is awful this year. Now time to look inside the numbers..
Opp. Winning % (I took out 1-AA records)
PAC-10....156-93....627
ACC.......165-126...567
Big East..150-131...534
Big 10....156-138...531
Big 12....159-165...491
SEC.......155-176...468
Shocking to see that the SEC has the worst non-conference opponent's winning percentage (I was being sarcastic). The PAC-10 by far has the most difficult out of conference games. It looks like some Big 12 and SEC teams fattened up on some easy wins. Even more evidence....
Games vs 1-AA teams...
ACC......14-0
Big 12...10-0
Big 10...8-0 (With 1 more to play)
SEC......7-0 (With 2 more to play)
Big East.7-0
PAC-10...2-0
Looks like every other conference is loading up free wins (unless you ask Michigan) against 1-AA teams. Looks like the PAC-10 should join suit and then maybe they would get some more love in the media. Interesting how playing lesser opponents means you are a better conference. Even more evidence....
Games vs BCS Opponent's (6 Major Conference Teams plus Notre Dame)...
..........Total..BCS...Non-BCS
Big East..38/40..8-7...18-5
Big 12....48/48..6-8...32-2
SEC.......39/48..5-6...26-1
Big 10....42/44..6-7...25-4
ACC.......43/48..11-7..22-3
PAC-10....29/30..5-8....8-8
Without looking at the actual schedules, it appears that the Big 12 and SEC are again loading up with wins against teams that aren't in BCS conferences. The PAC-10 looks pathetic at 8-8 against Non-BCS teams until you look further into the numbers. Even more evidence....
Out of Conference on Road and vs Ranked Opponents Records...
.........Total..Ranked..Road vs Ranked
Big 12....48.....2-1......0-1
SEC.......39.....0-3......0-3
Big East..38.....0-5......0-3
Big 10....42.....0-5......0-2
ACC.......43.....1-3......0-1
PAC-10....29.....2-10.....0-6
The PAC-10 has played Penn State, Oklahoma, Utah, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Ohio State, TCU, Georgia, BYU (twice), Michigan State, and Maryland. The Big 12 only played 3/48 games vs ranked opponent's. The SEC has only played 3/39 games. The PAC-10 has played 12/29 including 6 on the road which is more than the SEC and Big 12 combined even though they only played 1/3 the number of total games. Nice to see the SEC is 0-3 vs Ranked Non-Conference opponent's. I am tired of the chest beating and crying that they are the best. If you are the best, then play someone and prove it rather than talk. They are starting to sound an awful lot like the old Republican Party...couldn't help myself with the election tomorrow. YES WE CAN!!!!
That is a lot of numbers to sort through so I will wrap it up with this. Stop bashing the PAC-10. At least they try to play competitive games and don't play 8 home games. The PAC-10 is already at a disadvantage due to the 9th conference game (which lowers the possible total winning percentage to .625 and makes them start conference play earlier, thus lowering the records out of the gate and making it less likely they have more ranked teams), they play ranked opponent's out of conference, they play tough road games out of conference, and they actually travel. They aren't the best of the 6 BCS conferences, but they are definitely not the worst. I guess if Washington would schedule Idaho, Wyoming, and San Diego State instead of Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and BYU it would make USC a better team. Not sure how that makes sense, but that is the system we have. It sucks by the way.
Just to bash the mighty Big 12 South for some fun I thought I would show you the 16 NCG for Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.
Texas - Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Arkansas, and Rice. Rice is the only team with a winning record.
Texas Tech - Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, and UMASS. No teams with winning records and 2 1-AA teams. Way to schedule up. Shocking they started the season 4-0.
Oklahoma - Chattanooga, Cincinnati, Washington, and TCU. Give them some credit (although playing 1-AA Chattanooga is a joke). Cincinnati is solid, Washington is usually decent, and TCU is very good this year.
Oklahoma State - Washington State, Houston, Missouri State, and Troy. Again, what's with the 1-AA teams? Sad, but Troy might be best team on that schedule. Shocking again they started 4-0.
I think all 4 of those teams are good, but going 16-0 out of conference is helping their perception because their schedules are backloaded (except for Texas). Reminds me a litle of Vanderbilt when people were stupidly buying into them a month ago. By the way, I think Texas utlimately wins the divison over Oklahoma due to the earlier win in Dallas.
6 ways to be the "best" in media's eye's:
1. Have conference schedule as many 1-AA teams as possible
2. Have every team in conference play at least 3 home non-conference games
3. Have conferenece play the least amount of ranked non-conference games as possible
4. Have conference schedule bottom feeders early to inflate records of better teams
5. Schedule all 4 non-conference games before any conference games
6. Be in a 12 team conference so that you get to skip better teams in other division (Must be nice for Florida and Alabama to not have to play this year)
(Before you start crying, I understand Florida would have to play Alabama in the SEC championship game. I am not disputing that can hurt a teams chances to play in the National Championship Game. But it is convienent for Georgia and LSU to use the SEC Championship Game as an excuse to not play anyone out of conference when it wont affect them this year. But I digress.)
Before you know it your conference has multiple teams ranked and since they got to a point of being ranked highly, they are regarded as better than a team that started 5-3 even if both end up 9-3. I have some numbers to prove that scheduling is almost all that matters in college football.
I believe that the PAC-10 is being held to a different standard than the rest of the nation. Having to play the 9th conference game is a huge disadvantage to the "media" credibility of the league. I already proved that in an earlier post (highest possible winning percentage of all teams is .625 vs .667 or higher for every other conference). Also, I decided to look into the games that they can control...ie non-conference games. The PAC-10 has to start conference games before everyone else and thus wont have as many 4-0 or 5-0 teams early which hurts the conference in the eye's of the media. If Oregon doesnt get to 5-0 or 6-0 because they play USC and Boise State early then even if they end up 9-3 they wont be ranked as high as a team that started 7-0 and ended 9-3.
I found some shocking numbers that would to me, proves the PAC-10 is a little better than given credit for and the Big 12 and SEC aren't quite as good as believed. Here they are:
Out of conference records
SEC.......32-7....821
Big 12....38-10...792
ACC.......33-10...767
Big 10....31-11...738
Big East..26-12...684
PAC-10....13-16...448
Now that is what he media reports and what makes people believe the PAC-10 is awful this year. Now time to look inside the numbers..
Opp. Winning % (I took out 1-AA records)
PAC-10....156-93....627
ACC.......165-126...567
Big East..150-131...534
Big 10....156-138...531
Big 12....159-165...491
SEC.......155-176...468
Shocking to see that the SEC has the worst non-conference opponent's winning percentage (I was being sarcastic). The PAC-10 by far has the most difficult out of conference games. It looks like some Big 12 and SEC teams fattened up on some easy wins. Even more evidence....
Games vs 1-AA teams...
ACC......14-0
Big 12...10-0
Big 10...8-0 (With 1 more to play)
SEC......7-0 (With 2 more to play)
Big East.7-0
PAC-10...2-0
Looks like every other conference is loading up free wins (unless you ask Michigan) against 1-AA teams. Looks like the PAC-10 should join suit and then maybe they would get some more love in the media. Interesting how playing lesser opponents means you are a better conference. Even more evidence....
Games vs BCS Opponent's (6 Major Conference Teams plus Notre Dame)...
..........Total..BCS...Non-BCS
Big East..38/40..8-7...18-5
Big 12....48/48..6-8...32-2
SEC.......39/48..5-6...26-1
Big 10....42/44..6-7...25-4
ACC.......43/48..11-7..22-3
PAC-10....29/30..5-8....8-8
Without looking at the actual schedules, it appears that the Big 12 and SEC are again loading up with wins against teams that aren't in BCS conferences. The PAC-10 looks pathetic at 8-8 against Non-BCS teams until you look further into the numbers. Even more evidence....
Out of Conference on Road and vs Ranked Opponents Records...
.........Total..Ranked..Road vs Ranked
Big 12....48.....2-1......0-1
SEC.......39.....0-3......0-3
Big East..38.....0-5......0-3
Big 10....42.....0-5......0-2
ACC.......43.....1-3......0-1
PAC-10....29.....2-10.....0-6
The PAC-10 has played Penn State, Oklahoma, Utah, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Ohio State, TCU, Georgia, BYU (twice), Michigan State, and Maryland. The Big 12 only played 3/48 games vs ranked opponent's. The SEC has only played 3/39 games. The PAC-10 has played 12/29 including 6 on the road which is more than the SEC and Big 12 combined even though they only played 1/3 the number of total games. Nice to see the SEC is 0-3 vs Ranked Non-Conference opponent's. I am tired of the chest beating and crying that they are the best. If you are the best, then play someone and prove it rather than talk. They are starting to sound an awful lot like the old Republican Party...couldn't help myself with the election tomorrow. YES WE CAN!!!!
That is a lot of numbers to sort through so I will wrap it up with this. Stop bashing the PAC-10. At least they try to play competitive games and don't play 8 home games. The PAC-10 is already at a disadvantage due to the 9th conference game (which lowers the possible total winning percentage to .625 and makes them start conference play earlier, thus lowering the records out of the gate and making it less likely they have more ranked teams), they play ranked opponent's out of conference, they play tough road games out of conference, and they actually travel. They aren't the best of the 6 BCS conferences, but they are definitely not the worst. I guess if Washington would schedule Idaho, Wyoming, and San Diego State instead of Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and BYU it would make USC a better team. Not sure how that makes sense, but that is the system we have. It sucks by the way.
Just to bash the mighty Big 12 South for some fun I thought I would show you the 16 NCG for Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.
Texas - Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Arkansas, and Rice. Rice is the only team with a winning record.
Texas Tech - Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, and UMASS. No teams with winning records and 2 1-AA teams. Way to schedule up. Shocking they started the season 4-0.
Oklahoma - Chattanooga, Cincinnati, Washington, and TCU. Give them some credit (although playing 1-AA Chattanooga is a joke). Cincinnati is solid, Washington is usually decent, and TCU is very good this year.
Oklahoma State - Washington State, Houston, Missouri State, and Troy. Again, what's with the 1-AA teams? Sad, but Troy might be best team on that schedule. Shocking again they started 4-0.
I think all 4 of those teams are good, but going 16-0 out of conference is helping their perception because their schedules are backloaded (except for Texas). Reminds me a litle of Vanderbilt when people were stupidly buying into them a month ago. By the way, I think Texas utlimately wins the divison over Oklahoma due to the earlier win in Dallas.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
