Non-Conference Souffle

I decided to do a little research on the non-conference schedules for the 6 BCS Conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, PAC-1o, and SEC). Does a conference get helped in perception of their records by getting fat on cupcakes? Does a conference get hurt by scheduling oppenents that are actually challenging? How does the number of conference games affect a teams chances of being "good" in the media's eyes? I have crunched the numbers and come to some conclusions. Here are some things to know about the 6 conferences:

ACC - If they were to schedule 48 cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for a winning percentage of .667. (This is calculated by taking the number of teams (12) x number of conference games (8). This gives a record of 48-48 in conference. Then, add number of non-conference games (4) x (12 teams) = 48. If they win all of those games they are 96-48 for .667).

Big 10 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 88-44 for .667. This is lower because there are 11 teams in this conference.

Big 12 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for .667.

Big East - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 68-28 for .708. This is lower because there are 8 teams in this conference. Does the .708 possible winning percentage help the Big East? I would think it would given the opportunity to schedule a 5th non-conference game and get as many "wins" as they can.

PAC-10 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 75-45 for .625. This is lower because there are 10 teams and they play 9 conferences games. Does this hurt the conference? I don't see how it couldn't. The extra conference game kills them and worse, takes away an opportunity to fatten up on weak competition out of conference. If they play 30 1-AA schools out of conference, they are still going to have an overall worse record than every other conference.

SEC - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for .667.

What does this mean? The teams that play in 12 team conferences have an inherent advantage over the other 3 conferences. Before you get all fired up, remember that I am not talking about every team's chances to get to the BCS Championship Game. I am talking about the perceived "strength" of a conference based on the win-loss records of the members of the league. If a conference has more teams ranked teams, or teams with winning records, the league will be perceived as stronger. Teams in 12 team conferences don't play every team in that conference. Does it help the strength of the conference if a top team doesn't play 2 other top teams in that conference? Of course it does. A team can go 8-4 without winning a significant game. Just schedule 4 home cupcaked before conference games start. All you have to do is hope you skip a good team in conference play and win the games against the bottom feeders of the conference. An 8-4 team in the SEC, Big 12, or ACC is most likely to end up ranked in the 20's, thus making the conference stand out as having more ranked teams.

The 3 conferences that have to play a league championship game will affect the schedule, but that only affects 2 of the 12 teams in the conference. If the entire 12 use the excuse to schedule down the non-conference competition because of the conference championship game, that is a lame excuse because those 4 games don't have any outcome on who plays in the game. Only the conference records matter. As you can see, I believe there is a built-in bias towards the teams that play in a 12 team conference. The more teams ranked in your conference, the more an "elite" team gets ranked higher by the media for beating those teams. Is an 8-4 team in the SEC that has a strength of schedule of 60 (out of 120 teams) better than a 7-5 PAC-10 school with a SOS of 15? I dont think so, but just about everyone in the media would resoundingly say "YES". I have a lot more on this subject, so be sure to check back tomorrow for some stunning numbers regarding the Non-Conference Schedules of the 6 BCS conference. Who plays the toughest schedule? Who plays the weakest? Who plays only at home? Who plays games on the road? Tomorrow you will be shocked by the true numbers, not what the media wants you to believe.