Friday, April 3, 2009

Playoff Predictions and Awards

I have predicted the standings in every division and now it is time for the fun stuff. Who will win the wild cards spots? Who will win the World Series? Who will win all of the awards. Buckle up, here we go.

American League
Playoff teams: Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, and Yankees (wild card)
ALDS
Red Sox over Angels, Yankees over White Sox
ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees

National League
Playoff teams: Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, and Phillies (wild card)
NLDS
Mets over Dodgers, Cubs over Phillies
NLCS
Mets over Cubs

World Series
Red Sox over Mets

Awards
MVP - Manny Ramirez (NL), Grady Sizemore (AL)
CY Young - Johan Santana (NL), Jon Lester (AL)
Rookie of the Year - Cameron Maybin (NL), David Price (AL)
Manager of the Year - Jerry Manuel (NL), Ron Gardenhire (AL)

Thursday, April 2, 2009

AL Predicted Standings

Today we look at the American League...

AL East
1. Boston Red Sox - After years of relying on Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, pitching will be the key to the Red Sox return to the top of the AL East. The bullpen should be the best in the business with Takashi Saito, Justin Masterson, Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, and Manny Delcarmen getting the ball to Jonathan Papelbon. Watch out for an in-season call up from flamethrower Daniel Bard to make the bullpen even better. Jason Bay proved to be an admirable replacement for Manny and the offense should just keep on churning out runs with a healthy David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedoria.

2. New York Yankees - The starting rotation has been overhauled with the additions of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. Getting Chien-Ming Wang back from injury should also be a big boost. Joba Chamberlain showed flashes of being a dominant starter last year and would really provide the team with a big boost should he fulfill his promise. The only question around the pitching staff is who is going to pitch the 7th and 8th innings in order to get the ball to Mariano Rivera. Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez should provide the best 1-2 punch in baseball.

3. Tampa Bay Rays - The Rays came out of nowhere last year to win the AL. They didn't have a 15 game winner or a .300 hitter, but they managed to win 97 games. Pat Burrell should provide a big boost to the offense as well as getting Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria for a full season. Can all these young guys improve or even match last year's success? It is going to be tough and they will probably come just short of the wild card.

4. Toronto Blue Jays - Surprisingly, the Blue Jays led the Majors in ERA with a 3.49 mark. It will be almost impossible to repeat that and the offense will have to improve to pass the top 3 in the division. A healthy Vernon Wells will go a long way in helping the Jays get to the playoffs.

5. Baltimore Orioles - The O's play in the best division in baseball and are going to really struggle to get out of the cellar. The appear to have some really special long term position players with Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Matt Weiters. The offense should be solid once again, but the pitching is going to be the concern. The starting rotation right doesn't include anyone that will be mistaken for a #1 pitcher and probably not even a #2.

AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox - Starting pitching will be the reason the White Sox win the division again. Young pitchers John Danks and Gavin Floyd broke out last year and give them good depth to go along with veterans Mark Buerhle and Jose Contreras. The lineup is getting older, but the emergence of Alexi Ramirez and Carlos Quentin give the lineup the ability to score runs at any time. Even with the loss of Javier Vasquez and Nick Swisher, the White Sox should again get to the postseason.

2. Minnesota Twins - The Twins could easily finish first depending on the health of Joe Mauer. The emergence of Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, and Nick Blackburn give the Twins rotation something to add to stud Francisco Liriano. Joe Nathan gives them an elite closer to pair with their rotation. The lineup should be better with the return of Michael Cuddeyer. Justin Morneau could again challenge for the MVP award, but he will need Mauer in the lineup to give him enough RBI opportunities.

3. Cleveland Indians - The Tribe are a sleeper pick to win the division by some experts, but that is only if you believe Travis Hafner will return to form. Don't count me in that category. The lineup is solid, but the pitching staff has questions at the #3, #4, and #5 starters. It will be almost impossible for Cliff Lee to go 22-3 again. Kerry Wood should help the bullpen out, but there just isn't enough pitching to get them to the top of the division.

4. Detroit Tigers - The strength of the Tigers during their World Series run a couple years ago was starting pitching. What a difference a couple years make. Jeremey Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and Joel Zumaya will start the season on the DL. The only starter left from that team will be Justin Verlander who is looking to bounce back after a sub-par 2008 season. The lineup got a surprise yesterday with the release of Gary Sheffield but they should still be able to score runs with Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, and Miguel Cabrera.

5. Kansas City Royals - The Royals are getting better, but they still are the least talented team in the division. They do have some young talented hitters (Billy Butler, Mark Teahan, Alex Gordon) but they have yet to have a breakout season. Jose Guillen led the team with 20 HR and 97 RBI and no one else was close in either category. Zach Grienke finally is showing signs of a front line pitcher, but the rest of the staff is below average. Entering the season with Horacio Ramirez and Sidney Ponson as the #4 and #5 starters isn't a good thing.

AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels - The Angels won the West by 21 games last year and don't appear to be as strong this year as last after losing Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and John Garland. Signing Bobby Abreu should help offset the pain of losing Teixeira. The starting rotation is a little dinged up right now with the real possibility that John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar start the season on the DL. It is time for the prospects (Brandon Wood, Howie Kendrick, and Kendry Morales) to step up and produce.

2. Oakland Athletics - The lineup got a major boost with the additions of Matt Holiday, Jason Giambi, and Orlando Cabrera. The starting staff is a major concern with Justin Duchscherer injured. The A's will rely on talented yet unproven Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill to live up the hype just to stay near .500.

3. Texas Rangers - The Rangers have the best lineup in the division with Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Hank Blalock, and Chris Davis. The problem again will be pitching. The team ERA was 5.37 last year and no major upgrades were added to the staff this off-season. They have some young arms on the farm, but they don't figure to factor in this year.

4. Seattle Mariners - Ken Griffey Jr. is a Mariner again, but this version is nothing like the old version. They lost their best position player, Raul Ibanez, in free agency and will struggle to replace his numbers. They really need Erik Bedard to return to the pitcher they thought they were getting when they traded for him. Felix Hernandez is the most talented pitcher in the division, but he has yet to put together a full season of significance in his young career. They have some upside if the starters pan out, but they will most likely finish in the cellar once again.

Tomorrow I will predict the playoffs and award winners.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

MLB Predictions

It is time for my MLB Predictions. I will do the NL today and the AL tomorrow. Friday I will look at the playoffs and World Series as well as award winners. Without further ado, the National League. I wont try and predict records because I haven't actually gone through and projected the stats out. Just gut feel on what I think will happen.

NL East
1. NY Mets - The Mets addressed their biggest weakness over the off-season by adding Francisco Rodriguez and JJ Putz. The Mets missed out on the Wild Card by 1 game last year while blowing a major league leading 29 saves. The new late inning relievers should help solve that problem.

2. Philadelphia Phillies - The Phillies have some minor injury concerns with Cole Hamels and Chase Utley. They also have some issues in the back of their rotation. Brad Lidge won't have a perfect season again, but the World Series Champions will be knocking of the playoff door again.

3. Atlanta Braves - While the Braves have added some much needed innings to their starting rotation (see Derek Lowe, Javier Vasquez, Kenshin Kawakami) they will still need Jeff Franceour to return to his pre-2008 form if they have any chance of finishing ahead of the Phils or Mets.

4. Florida Marlins - The Marlins decided to part ways with key 2008 contributors Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Mike Jacobs, Mark Hendrickson, Joe Nelson and Kevin Gregg. While they have some young talent that should blossom this year (Cameron Maybin and Chris Volstad) there is still huge talent gap from the top teams in the division.

5. Washington Nationals - While adding Adam Dunn and getting Nick Johnson back should help the offense, has anyone noticed their projected starting rotation has only 288 career starts: John Lannan (37), Scott Olsen (101), Daniel Cabrera (146), Shairon Martis (4), and Jordan Zimmermann (0). They have also combined for a 91-116 (.439) record in the big leagues. That rotation doesn't leave one to project more than 70 wins.

NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs - The Cubs were the best team in the NL last year during the regular season and they plan on using the same formula this year. Losing Mark DeRosa's versatility could hurt the offense a little, but the Cubbie's should offset that with a full season from Rich Harden. The Cubs look like the class of the Central again.

2. St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals managed to piece together a staff last season and still managed 86 wins. Getting 30 starts from Adam Wainright and Chris Carpenter should really help them challenge the Cubs. Untested Jason Motte appears to be the closer and the bullpen could be a concern again this year. The offense should be solid once again with the game's best hitter (Albert Pujols) anchoring the lineup.

3. Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers are excited to get Yovani Gallardo back, but losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets will be too much to overcome. The signing of Trevor Hoffman should help the bullpen settle into roles, but it will be hard to get the lead to them consistently with a starting rotation of Gallardo, Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan, and Braden Looper. The offense once again should be very good with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder providing one of the best 1-2 punches in the NL.

4. Cincinnati Reds - The Big Four Prospects (Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edison Volquez, Johnny Cueto) from last year all came through with flying colors. Now if they can get former uber-prospect Homer Bailey back on track, the Reds might be a force to contend with in the next couple of years. Unbelievably, it could be the pitching that leads this team back to contention. The rotation is in the best shape in years with Volquez, Cueto, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Micah Owings. They will need to find a way to replace the run production of Adam Dunn to contend, but they should challenge the Brewers for third place.

5. Houston Astros - The Astros do have some star power with Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada, and Ivan Rodriguez but that won't necessarily lead to wins in 2009. The position are getting a little long in the tooth with 5 out of the 8 over 30 years old. They should still be able to score runs, but the pitching is going to be a major concern with Oswalt the only starter they can count on.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates - The Pirates haven't had in winning record in 16 years and 2009 should make 17. Nate McClouth gave Pirates fan something to be excited about last year and it will be interesting to see if he can repeat it. The offense won't win many games for them and the pitching falls into the same category. While Paul Malhom had a decent year in 2008, it doesn't inspire much confidence in the team when the opening day starter is 30-35 with a 4.35 ERA for his career.

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers - The return of Manny Ramirez should be enough to keep the Dodgers on top of the division. After the trade, the Dodgers went 30-23 with Manny in the lineup. The young guns (Matt Kemp, Russell Martin, Andre Either, and James Loney)are starting to fulfill their promise, but the pitching is what is going to make this team sink or swim this year. The Dodgers are hoping Randy Wolf and a couple of talented youngsters (Clayton Kershaw, James McDonald, Jonathan Broxton) can offset the loses of Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Brad Penny, and Takashi Saito.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks - Pitching is still The Snakes calling card as they boast one of the best rotations in the NL with Brandon Web, Dan Haren, Max Scherzer, John Garland, and Doug Davis. They are hoping that Chad Qualls can step in and become an adequate closer. The offense is what can keep them from passing the Dodgers in the standings. The talent is there (Chris Young, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Connor Jackson, Mark Reynolds) but consistency is the key. The return of Eric Byrnes should help.

3. San Francisco Giants - Another NL West team long on pitching and short on hitting. Tim Lincecum continued his domination by winning the Cy Young Award in his first full season. Adding Randy Johnson should help shore up the back of the rotation. The problem is the offense even with Pablo Sandoval (.345 in 41 games) inserted into the lineup full-time. The Giants only managed to hit 94 HR's last year and didn't have one player with 100 RBI's or 100 Runs Scored.

4. Colorado Rockies - The trade of Matt Holiday continued a trend of the Rockies tailoring the team towards pitching. Gone are the days of the Blake Street Bombers now that the humidor has taken over the atmospheric conditions at Coors Field. The emergence of Ubaldo Jimenez was a pleasant surprise last year but this team is still thin on starting pitching. Franklin Morales returning to form would be a huge bonus with Jason Hirsh and Jeff Francis hurting. Getting Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton healthy might be the only thing that keeps them ahead of the Padres.

5. San Diego Padres - The Padres were the worst offensive team in the NL league last year. They finished last in runs scored (637), OBP (.317), and SB's (36). So it would figure they would go out and sign some players to fix the offense. Wrong. Prospect Chase Headley should help, but unless everyone on the team has career years expect another long season in SD. A trade of Jake Peavy would only makes things worse this year.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

I love the NCAA Tournament, but...

I don't know anyone who doesn't love the NCAA Tournament. It brings just about anyone with a pulse to fill out a bracket and root for teams they haven't seen play a minute of basketball all year. I watched more college basketball last weekend and was appalled at the level of play. It was sloppy and uninspiring for the most part. It seems that the teams that have more seniors in their rotations are going to fare just as well as the teams with talented youngsters. I just keep thinking about how much better this tournament could be if the NCAA were to adopt a system that ties a player to a university for 3 years like baseball and football. I went back and took the players out of the last 2 drafts that would still be in college under this rule. Just imagine the excitement for the games coming up if you had the following players still in college:

Ohio State with Greg Oden, Mike Conley, and Daquan Cook
Texas with Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin
UCLA with Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook
Memphis with Derrick Rose
Arizona with Jared Bayless
USC with OJ Mayo
Washington with Spencer Hawes
UNC with Brandan Wright
LSU with Anthony Randolph

That doesn't even include the teams that would have made the tournament with the players that are in the NBA.

Georgia Tech with Thaddeus Young and Jarvis Crittenton
Stanford with the Lopez Twins
Indiana with Eric Gordon
Kansas State with Michael Beasley

Try filling out an All-American ballot with those names. Also, think about the matchups that we could potentially have in the Final Four. It makes me dream of watch we could be watching versus what we are left with. I would encourage the NBA and NCAA to adopt a system that keeps these players in college longer and allows the fans of both leagues to enjoy the talents of these players.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

What is in the water in Dallas?

With news breaking last night that the Dallas Cowboys have finally rid themselves of Terrell Owens, Jerry Jones finally looks like a guy in control of his franchise. He was rapidly approaching Al Davis territory for owners that meddle too much and try to control personnel decisions. In this instance, being quiet would have been the worst thing Jones could have done. I applaud him for stepping up to the plate and ridding the team of the cancer that is T.O. This guy tears apart every team and organization he has ever been apart of. Anyone who watched Hard Knocks last summer on HBO could tell that chemistry was the last thing on anyone's mind in Cowboys camp. It is interesting that only two weeks ago Jones had this to say about his team chemistry issues:
"They're all a figment of the result, you didn't hear those kinds of things when we were winning."
Good thing for the Cowboys that someone or something changed his tune rather quickly. The Cowboys have now let Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones, and Tank Johnson leave this offseason. Maybe these moves will be of the addition by subtraction quantity. Now it is time for Roy Williams to start earning the money the Cowboys gave him.

Friday, February 27, 2009

Manny and The Dodgers

News broke this morning that Manny Ramirez has rejected the Dodgers offer of 2 years for $45 million. While I applaud the Dodgers for not falling into Scott Boras's trap of bidding against yourself, the news that they were only going to pay Manny $10 million this year and $10 million next year with $25 million deferred is ridiculous. Of course Manny isnt going to sign that. The Dodgers need to get more of that money up front to make the offer legitimate. I love that they aren't listening to Boras's demands of adding more years to the deal. It is about time a team told an agent to shut it and stopped bidding against themselves. Boras was the master of that over the last decade, but time might be catching up with him.

Friday, February 20, 2009

How stupid is A-Rod?

Not that I believed anything that A-Rod said in his press conference the other day, but just about everything he said is starting to turn out to be false. I never believed him when he said he took performance enhancing drugs while in Texas to live up to his enormous contract and pressure to preform. What he all of sudden didn't feel that times ten upon arriving in NY? Really. Well now two more bombshells hit today that are destroying his story completely. He said his cousin got the drug "Boli" over the counter in the Dominican Republic. According to an ESPN report, Boli wasn't available over the counter or even with a prescription from 2001-2003. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3920425

The NY Daily News report this morning that in 2007 that A-Rod had a "trainer" is a steroid-linked individual that is banned by every MLB team that was identified in the Mitchell Report. He had this trainer accompany him for the entire season. The guy is bad news and A-Rod was still stupid enough to have him around. Everyone in baseball knows who this guy is. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2009/02/19/2009-02-19_arods_pal_the_tainted_trainer_steroidlin.html

I guess A-Rod thought the NY media that hates him would just believe him and not look into anything. Boy was he wrong. Who is the stupid one now A-Rod, you for thinking the media would believe you or us for believing any word that came out of your mouth?