The Big 12 South Winner Should Be....

After finishing the regular season, the Big 12 South has 3 teams tied at 11-1: Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. The fifth tiebreaker, whoever is ranked highest in the BCS Standings, will be used to determine the winner. Lets compare the 3 teams:

- Texas beat Oklahoma by 10 points on a neutral field.
- Oklahoma beat Texas Tech by 45 points at home
- Texas Tech beat Texas by 6 at home

Due to Texas Tech's loss by 45 points, they aren't going to be ranked high enough in the BCS standings to win the division. They also played 2 1-AA teams in the non-conference schedule and that will hurt their computer ranking. So it is going to come down to Texas and Oklahoma. Texas conveniently wants to just shout that they beat Oklahoma, thus they should be the winner. Well, it is a 3 way tie, not 2. So that argument doesn't work. How can we judge these teams without using head-to-head. The easiest way is to look at 3 factors:

1. Non-Conference Schedule
Texas played Florida Atlantic, at UTEP, Rice, and Arkansas. No ranked teams, nothing to take note of. Oklahoma played Chattanooga, Cincinnati (Big East winner and BCS Bound), at Washington, and TCU (currently ranked 14th in BCS and most likely higher later this afternoon). Advantage: Oklahoma by a long shot.

2. Point Differential in Big 12 Games against Common Opponents
These teams shared 5 common opponents in the Big 12 this year: Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas. Oklahoma outscored these 5 teams by 148 points. Texas outscored them by 90. Advantage: Oklahoma.

3. Road Wins of Note
Texas went 3-1 in road games beating UTEP, Colorado, and Kansas on the road (lost to Texas Tech). Oklahoma went 5-0 in road games beating Washington, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State by far is the best road win of any team in the Big 12. Advantage: Oklahoma.

Using these 3 factors (can't use head-to-head because of a 3 way tie) Oklahoma is clearly the team that should represent the Big 12 South next weekend in Kansas City. Sorry Texas. Sorry Texas Tech. Oklahoma moves on.

The Schedule Police

Even though every other division in college football has a playoff to determine a champion, Division I keeps hiding its head in the sand and trumping up the Bowl System. So coming to the conclusion that a playoff is years away, there is something that the BCS can do to even out the playing field. The BCS should have certain rules in place that would help the voters determine how good a teams are. In the past couple of years, teams have started to figure out that scheduling is a huge part of the BCS formula. Why play tough opponents or road games in the non-conference portion of the schedule that can be controlled? The reason is so that the voters can get a better opinion on how good teams are. The BCS should institute "The Schedule Police". This body would ensure that in order for a team to play in the BCS Championship Game or in a BCS Game as an at-large team, it has followed 3 scheduling rules (conference automatic bids wouldn't have to follow these rules).

The Schedule Police 3 Rules:
1. Don't play any 1-AA (FCS) opponents - if you want to be one of the best teams in the country, you should play 12 FBS teams. No questions asked.
2. Don't play 8 home games - Hard to judge a team that plays 4 non-conference home games. Again, to be the best you should have to play more than 4 road games.
3. Play at least one non-conference game against a BCS Conference team - Voters need all the help they can get and playing 4 non-conference games against Sun Belt or WAC teams isn't helping them.

I would love to see these 3 rules instituted. It would be awesome just from the standpoint of how fans would react to a their teams schedule. A team that schedules a 1-AA team would be telling their fans "We don't think we are good enough to play for the Championship". It isn't asking much for teams to follow these 3 simple rules.

The following Top 15 teams would be eligible for the BCS Championship Game or an at-large bid using these 3 rules: 1. Alabama, 2. Texas, and 5. USC. That is it. The BCS needs to get involved in how teams schedule. Texas Tech, Florida State, and Georgia Tech played 2 1-AA schools this year. That is downright absurd. They shouldn't be rewarded for that. Florida State and LSU play 8 home games this year. That is a huge advantage that might be taken into factor by the voters should they be talking about playing for the BCS Championship Game, but it also helps the conference out tremendously because the voters most likely don't look at that when ranking the teams. If that means moving Florida State up 5-8 spots in the polls because they played 8 home games and 2 games against 1-AA schools, that is unfair to the other teams trying to get ranked. The BCS, if it is going to continue to exist, needs to make some changes and they need to start with forcing teams to schedule decent opponents.

LeBron and The Big Apple

Let the mourning in the city of Cleveland begin. There is still hope that Lebron James and his current Cavaliers can win the NBA title in the next couple of years. If they don't, Kleenex will make a killing.

There have been rumors that LeBron James was going to be a Knick in 2010 for some time now. LeBron was very open about his liking of US Olympic and Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni. The Knicks did their part by trading Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph this past week. These two trades now give the Knicks more than $27 million of cap space for the summer of 2010. While other players like Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, and Steve Nash will be available, LeBron James is the big fish. These trades give the Knicks thoughts of not only LBJ, but also the ability to sign another marquee free agent in 2010 to pair him with. Would another player take a little less to play in NY with the best player in the game? The Knicks sure hope so.

It just so happened that LeBron and his Cleveland Cavaliers headed to Madison Square Garden on Tuesday to play the Knicks. While the crowd chanted "We want LeBron", LBJ did his own part by breaking out his new shoe appropriately called "The Big Apple Shoes". Here is a look at them:


Where these shoes a signal to the city of New York that LeBron may soon be coming? I think so. Why else would Nike and LBJ go through with the promotion? Either LBJ and Nike is playing the city for fools or they must think the public is stupid. I don't think that is the case. New York provides LBJ an opportunity to become a global icon. Also, there are rumors that just by playing for a team in LA or NY, Nike will give LeBron a bonus of $50 million. Looks like an easy decision to me. The city of New York should get ready for the inevitable...LeBron James in a Knicks jersey.

Could the media be right?

I keep hearing on TV that my beloved USC Trojans are "down" this year. I can understand the love for Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Florida ahead of us this year even though I don't believe it. What I can't understand, is hearing that Texas Tech should be in the National Championship Game ahead of USC if Oklahoma were to lose this week to Oklahoma State. Seriously? A team that just lost by 44 would win the Big 12 South and play for the Big 12 Championship and thus automatically be in the BCS Championship game. They lost by 44. Texas Tech also played 2 1-AA teams this year. Should they be rewarded for that? Get ready for another blowout if this happens. Sorry media. Here are some reasons that USC should be in the BCS Championship Game:

- USC never gets blown out.
- 79-9 last 7 years
- 9 losses by combined 36 points!
- 3-0 vs ranked opponents this year outscoring them 96-16
- #1 defense in country
- #2 point differential in country
- 5-1 in BCS Games
- 11 wins 6 straight seasons (soon to be 7)

USC is second in the nation in point differential at 30.1 points per game. How does that compare to the last 7 USC teams, including the undefeated 2005 team?

2002 17.2
2003 22.7
2004 25.2
2005 26.3
2006 15.3
2007 16.6
2008 30.1

This years team is the best in the Pete Carroll era in point differential. Must be a bad year for the mighty Trojans! I don't see how USC is "down" this year. Must be the offense then. The media thinks the reason is because of the offense. How does USC points per game look for the last 7 years?

2002 35.8
2003 41.1
2004 38.2
2005 49.1
2006 30.5
2007 32.6
2008 38.4

This years team is the third highest scoring team of the Pete Carroll era. While the offense has been inconsistent at times, the talent is obviously still there.

I am biased, but I still think USC deserves a shot to play for the title if Oklahoma loses this week. Who wants to watch another blowout BCS Championship Game? Oklahoma has lost 4 straight BCS Games but should they win out, they will play the SEC Champion for the title. If they should lose though, the Trojans are the team that needs to be there!

Updated BCS Projections (11/24)

Wow, another exciting weekend in college football. With only 2 more weeks some things are starting to become more clear. Some teams have already qualified (Penn State and Utah) for the BCS while some are making their push. Lets look at the top 5 teams in the BCS and their chances to play in the BCS championship game and also my projected BCS game participants. To get a better look at each team, lets look at each teams Strength of Schedule (games played to date) and point differential per game (doesn't include games vs 1-AA teams).

BCS Standings
1. Alabama (SOS: 65, PD: 16.2) - The last undefeated team in a BCS conference. Having the 65th ranked schedule in the country and not playing Florida in the regular season has helped tremendously. Alabama has won every game but have done so with the least margin of any of the top 7 teams. Factor in that they haven't lost and it makes their PD look that much worse. The problem for Alabama is that they will play Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Auburn, lose to Florida

2. Texas (SOS: 5, PD: 24.0) - Texas was thought to be in a good position because they beat Oklahoma earlier in the year and would likely win a tiebreaker in a 3-way tie in the Big 12 South. Oklahoma may have screwed that up with a complete blow-out of Texas Tech. Texas has played a very tough schedule and their point differential looks very good when the SOS is factored in. If they don't win play for the Big 12 Championship, will they be chosen to play for the BCS Championship?
Prediction: 11-1 beat Texas A&M

3. Oklahoma (SOS: 25, PD: 26.7) - Oklahoma's thrashing of Texas Tech may have swayed enough voters to put them in a position to play for the Big 12 Championship. They have scored 60+ points 3 games in a row. With a tough game at Oklahoma State this weekend, their SOS will rise and probably put them in the BCS Top 2. They have lost 4 straight BCS games so they better hope that doesn't enter into the voters minds.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Oklahoma State and Missouri

4. Florida (SOS: 32, PD: 32.8) - Florida has beaten up teams lately in the SEC and their PD of 32.8 is very impressive. The SOS will rise as well with games at Florida State and the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. If they win out, they will play for the BCS Championship.
Prediction: 12-1 beat Florida State and Alabama

5. USC (SOS: 30, PD: 30.1) - USC has the second highest PD in the nation (only giving up 8.3 ppg) and played a relatively tough schedule so far. The problem, Notre Dame and UCLA are the last teams and wont give them enough leverage with the voters unless some upsets occur above them.
Prediction: 11-1 beat Notre Dame and UCLA

7. Texas Tech (SOS: 19, PD: 16.2) - Can a team that lost by 44 be considered one of the top 2 teams in the country? I don't think so, but they still have a shot to play for the BCS Championship. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then Texas Tech wins the Big 12 South. The winner of the Big 12 has already been put in the BCS Championship Game by the media, but did this weekend change that perception if the winner is Texas Tech? Texas Tech would need to be pushed hard by the voters to get over Texas, USC, and Utah. Would add another bullet to the playoff proponents and further make the BCS the laughing stock of sports if it were to happen.
Prediction: 11-1 beat Baylor.

Alright using my predictions here are the BCS Bowl Participants as I see them this week. Keep in mind the BCS selection rules. Rather than write them all out, here is a link -

BCS Championship Game
BCS 1 vs BCS 2
Oklahoma vs Florida
Creates more controversy since Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head.

Rose Bowl
PAC-10 vs Big 10
USC vs Penn State
Oregon State has a tough game at home against Oregon in the Civil War. I think Oregon wins and thus, the PAC-10 loses a team in the BCS.

Fiesta Bowl
Big 12 vs At-Large
Texas vs Ohio State
Fiesta gets to choose an at-large team first this year. Ohio State has been good to them recently (2003, 2004, 2006). Utah (2005) and Boise State (2007) has as well. It will come down to money and Ohio State will bring that.

Sugar Bowl
SEC vs At-Large
Alabama vs Utah
USC might be a possibility if Oregon State wins (Fiesta would have to pass them up with Utah) and would create a great matchup. The Sugar Bowl will pit a Non-BCS team against a SEC team for the second year in a row.

Orange Bowl
ACC vs At-Large (usually Big East, but doesn't have to be)
Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati

Cant wait to next week to see how this has completely blown up again.

E"SEC"PN

I was displeased with the news yesterday that ESPN will have the television rights to the BCS games until 2014. First and foremost, this weakens any stance of a playoff system. ESPN has also reportedly put a moratorium on all columnists and radio personalities from even mentioning the word "playoffs" when it comes to college football. That is a little extreme, but I guess they can control their employees. Note to ESPN, just because your network is prohibited from mentioning it doesn't mean that the topic will just go away.

Being the PAC-10 guy that I am, this makes me even more furious. It has been difficult enough living on the East Coast the last 5 years and never even watching PAC-10 teams play unless USC was involved. Factor in the time zone difference and people on the East Coast would be lucky to watch 5 minutes of Oregon or California every year. People on the East Coast would be shocked to hear that Oregon State has won 19 games the last two seasons and have won 4 consecutive bowl games. No wonder they are generally an afterthought to mid-level SEC teams that are constantly on national TV. Back on topic....

I have always thought there was some bias on ESPN since they televise a lot of SEC games. They want to constantly promote the league so their ratings will increase. With both ESPN and CBS broadcasting games, essentially every SEC football game will be televised nationally. Well, I came across this note on collegefootballnews.com yesterday and it hit home for me:

"ESPN appears to be on the verge of getting the rights for the BCS games for 2011 and beyond. Meanwhile, the network has ponied up $2.5 billion for the rights to televise the SEC games other than the one CBS will snag for its game of the week. That means ESPN will be the equivalent of the SEC Network during football seasons. As if the $55 million a year the SEC will be getting from the deal ins’t enough, let’s just say it’ll be in the Boo-Ya’s best interest if the league just so happens to be promoted all the time when it comes to lobbying efforts to get an SEC team into the national title. Also, be prepared for any and all critical thought when it comes to BCS discussion to be gone from the Worldwide Leader, and for any hint of the P-word, be it for an eight-team tourney or a plus-one format, to be squashed like Harold Reynolds."

This should bother anyone who is a fan of a team in another conference. ESPN will be pushing hard on a weekly basis to get SEC teams ranked higher since that will increase their ratings. If you think I am the only one bothered by this, consider these words from Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops during the 2004 season:

"I'm aware of what their contracts are with. Whether people are directed in certain ways, I'm not going to say that. I think all the people ought to be aware who their contracts are with and what some of their agendas may be. I just understand TV and what happens with programs. Ratings matter. I think it's fair to say, too, they have a contract with the SEC. I'm fully aware of that. I can't be the only one who recognizes that. It's impossible to remove agendas. They have producers and ratings. I don't know what impact they have, but I'm sure they have some."

For those of us who can't take any more of ESPN shoving the SEC down our throats, it's only just begun.

The Perfect Season

While some people are focusing on the undefeated Tennessee Titans and their quest to go 16-0, I would like to focus on something even more rare. The Detroit Lions are on pace to have the worst record in NFL history. The current record is held by the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 0-14. Can the Lions do the unthinkable and go 0-16? I sure hope so. This is a team that drafted a QB (Drew Stanton) in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft but have recently signed Dante Culpepper to be the starting QB even though he hadnt played in an NFL game all season and wasn't even invited to training camp by any of the NFL's 32 teams. This is a team that drafted WR's in top of the draft 4 out of 5 years. This team has became the laughing-stock of the league under the direction of Matt Millen and finishing 2008 winless would be the perfect way to cap the Millen era. Here are the last 6 games for the Lions and the percentage I think they have to win that game.

Week 12 at home vs Tampa Bay (7-3) - 10%. Tampa Bay's defense and ability to not turn the ball over should be enough to beat the Lions. Tampa Bay should be able to run the ball all day and get after Dante Culpepper and force some turnovers.

Week 13 at home vs Tennessee (10-0) - 0%. Its going to be tough for Detroit to get anything going against Tennessee. Tennessee will pound the ball against Detroit's soft front seven. Again the defense of the Titans should be able to tee off on Dante Culpepper and force turnovers. The game is on Thanksgiving Day only 4 days after the Tampa Bay game which wont give the Lions defenders much time to recover from the beating they will take vs the Bucs and it will be a long day.

Week 14 at home vs Minnesota (5-5) - 25%. Third straight home game, but again its going to be tough to beat the Vikings and Adrian Peterson. After getting beat up by the Bucs and Titans, the last thing the Lions defense will want to see is the beast that is Adrian Peterson. The first meeting in Minnesota was a close game, but this one might not be. Throw in the fact that the Vikins will desperately need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive and all signs point to another Lions loss.

Week 15 on road vs Indianapolis (6-4) - 0%. Unless Peyton Manning is injured and not playing in this game, the Lions will have no chance to win. The Colts will be fighting for a wild card spot and wont lose. Detroit is giving up 30.8 points per game and this should be a field day for the Colts offense.

Week 16 at home vs New Orleans (5-5) - 33%. By this time the Saints may be out of the wild card race, but they will keep fighting. Again Detroit's defense will be exploited by the Saints offense. The silver lining for the Lions is that the Saints give up 24.9 points per game and can be vunerable to the pass. In the end, the Saints will have too much offensive firepower for the Lions defense.

Week 17 at Green Bay (5-5) - 25%. The only reason the percentage is so high on this game is because the NFC North Champion should be locked into the 4th seed of the playoffs by the last week of the season. There is a chance that the Packers will not benefit from winning this game if they have the division wrapped up by Week 17. If they don't and the Packer need to win, the chances would diminish greatly for a Lions win.

The schedule is not favorable down the stretch for a Lions win. Every one of their last six games should have playoff implications. While this gives the Lions motivation to be a spoiler, it also means the competition should be ready to play as well. I don't see the Lions winning any of these games and finishing the season "perfect". 0-16 here we come!