I am supposed to believe Alabama is the second best team in the country and they are only 22.5 point favorites at home this weekend against a 4-3 Sun Belt team (Arkansas State) who lost to Memphis and Louisiana-Lafayette on the road this season. I think Vegas is on to something. I dont know the lines for sure, but I would imagine Penn State, USC, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Florida, Georgia, and probably a handful of other schools would be favored by more than 22.5. I dont think Vegas, much like myself, expect Alabama to finish 13-0 and play for the BCS Championship.
By the way, did anyone notice the SEC West is way down this year. Auburn is a 6.5 point underdog on the road against Ole Miss. Arkansas is a 7 point home dog against Tulsa. You read that right. Did I mention LSU has given up more than 50 points each of the last two weeks?
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Non-Conference Souffle
I decided to do a little research on the non-conference schedules for the 6 BCS Conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, PAC-1o, and SEC). Does a conference get helped in perception of their records by getting fat on cupcakes? Does a conference get hurt by scheduling oppenents that are actually challenging? How does the number of conference games affect a teams chances of being "good" in the media's eyes? I have crunched the numbers and come to some conclusions. Here are some things to know about the 6 conferences:
ACC - If they were to schedule 48 cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for a winning percentage of .667. (This is calculated by taking the number of teams (12) x number of conference games (8). This gives a record of 48-48 in conference. Then, add number of non-conference games (4) x (12 teams) = 48. If they win all of those games they are 96-48 for .667).
Big 10 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 88-44 for .667. This is lower because there are 11 teams in this conference.
Big 12 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for .667.
Big East - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 68-28 for .708. This is lower because there are 8 teams in this conference. Does the .708 possible winning percentage help the Big East? I would think it would given the opportunity to schedule a 5th non-conference game and get as many "wins" as they can.
PAC-10 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 75-45 for .625. This is lower because there are 10 teams and they play 9 conferences games. Does this hurt the conference? I don't see how it couldn't. The extra conference game kills them and worse, takes away an opportunity to fatten up on weak competition out of conference. If they play 30 1-AA schools out of conference, they are still going to have an overall worse record than every other conference.
SEC - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for .667.
What does this mean? The teams that play in 12 team conferences have an inherent advantage over the other 3 conferences. Before you get all fired up, remember that I am not talking about every team's chances to get to the BCS Championship Game. I am talking about the perceived "strength" of a conference based on the win-loss records of the members of the league. If a conference has more teams ranked teams, or teams with winning records, the league will be perceived as stronger. Teams in 12 team conferences don't play every team in that conference. Does it help the strength of the conference if a top team doesn't play 2 other top teams in that conference? Of course it does. A team can go 8-4 without winning a significant game. Just schedule 4 home cupcaked before conference games start. All you have to do is hope you skip a good team in conference play and win the games against the bottom feeders of the conference. An 8-4 team in the SEC, Big 12, or ACC is most likely to end up ranked in the 20's, thus making the conference stand out as having more ranked teams.
The 3 conferences that have to play a league championship game will affect the schedule, but that only affects 2 of the 12 teams in the conference. If the entire 12 use the excuse to schedule down the non-conference competition because of the conference championship game, that is a lame excuse because those 4 games don't have any outcome on who plays in the game. Only the conference records matter. As you can see, I believe there is a built-in bias towards the teams that play in a 12 team conference. The more teams ranked in your conference, the more an "elite" team gets ranked higher by the media for beating those teams. Is an 8-4 team in the SEC that has a strength of schedule of 60 (out of 120 teams) better than a 7-5 PAC-10 school with a SOS of 15? I dont think so, but just about everyone in the media would resoundingly say "YES". I have a lot more on this subject, so be sure to check back tomorrow for some stunning numbers regarding the Non-Conference Schedules of the 6 BCS conference. Who plays the toughest schedule? Who plays the weakest? Who plays only at home? Who plays games on the road? Tomorrow you will be shocked by the true numbers, not what the media wants you to believe.
ACC - If they were to schedule 48 cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for a winning percentage of .667. (This is calculated by taking the number of teams (12) x number of conference games (8). This gives a record of 48-48 in conference. Then, add number of non-conference games (4) x (12 teams) = 48. If they win all of those games they are 96-48 for .667).
Big 10 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 88-44 for .667. This is lower because there are 11 teams in this conference.
Big 12 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for .667.
Big East - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 68-28 for .708. This is lower because there are 8 teams in this conference. Does the .708 possible winning percentage help the Big East? I would think it would given the opportunity to schedule a 5th non-conference game and get as many "wins" as they can.
PAC-10 - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 75-45 for .625. This is lower because there are 10 teams and they play 9 conferences games. Does this hurt the conference? I don't see how it couldn't. The extra conference game kills them and worse, takes away an opportunity to fatten up on weak competition out of conference. If they play 30 1-AA schools out of conference, they are still going to have an overall worse record than every other conference.
SEC - Assuming cupcakes, the best the conference could do is 96-48 for .667.
What does this mean? The teams that play in 12 team conferences have an inherent advantage over the other 3 conferences. Before you get all fired up, remember that I am not talking about every team's chances to get to the BCS Championship Game. I am talking about the perceived "strength" of a conference based on the win-loss records of the members of the league. If a conference has more teams ranked teams, or teams with winning records, the league will be perceived as stronger. Teams in 12 team conferences don't play every team in that conference. Does it help the strength of the conference if a top team doesn't play 2 other top teams in that conference? Of course it does. A team can go 8-4 without winning a significant game. Just schedule 4 home cupcaked before conference games start. All you have to do is hope you skip a good team in conference play and win the games against the bottom feeders of the conference. An 8-4 team in the SEC, Big 12, or ACC is most likely to end up ranked in the 20's, thus making the conference stand out as having more ranked teams.
The 3 conferences that have to play a league championship game will affect the schedule, but that only affects 2 of the 12 teams in the conference. If the entire 12 use the excuse to schedule down the non-conference competition because of the conference championship game, that is a lame excuse because those 4 games don't have any outcome on who plays in the game. Only the conference records matter. As you can see, I believe there is a built-in bias towards the teams that play in a 12 team conference. The more teams ranked in your conference, the more an "elite" team gets ranked higher by the media for beating those teams. Is an 8-4 team in the SEC that has a strength of schedule of 60 (out of 120 teams) better than a 7-5 PAC-10 school with a SOS of 15? I dont think so, but just about everyone in the media would resoundingly say "YES". I have a lot more on this subject, so be sure to check back tomorrow for some stunning numbers regarding the Non-Conference Schedules of the 6 BCS conference. Who plays the toughest schedule? Who plays the weakest? Who plays only at home? Who plays games on the road? Tomorrow you will be shocked by the true numbers, not what the media wants you to believe.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
BCS Possibilities
Right now, I only see 6 teams that are legitimate BCS Championship game material. Here they are in the rank of how I see them ending the season:
1. Texas - They will beat Texas Tech this weekend in Lubbock and cruise to the Big 12 Championship game. They will beat Missouri in that game to finish the season undefeated and in the BCS Championship game.
2. Penn State - They will win their last three games and play Texas for cyrstal football in Miami. They might face a challenge against Michigan State, but I see them prevailing.
3. Florida - The "Cocktail Party" in Jacksonville will determine the SEC champion. Florida will beat Georgia (wonder how Florida will respond to last year's field storming by the Dogs) and play Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Florida will win, but be left out in the end due to the 2 undefeated teams above and end up in the Sugar Bowl.
4. USC - USC will run the table and most likely end up in the Rose Bowl again vs Ohio State for a rematch no one wants to see. USC also plays in Columbus early next year so it will be a game the players probably dont want either. Oregon State controls their own destiny in the Pac-10 but has a brutal stretch to navigate. I would like to see Oregon State run the table and thus set up a possible SEC-USC game.
5. Alabama - They should be able to pound LSU and win that game (might not matter as they are 2 games ahead in the SEC West), but it will be tough as Nick Saban makes his return to Baton Rouge. Alabama is got to be rooting hard for Georgia this weekend to set up a rematch in the SEC Championship game. Should they lose twice, it will be interesting to see if they can get an at-large bid over Georgia.
6. Georgia - Should they beat Florida, they will have revenge on their minds should they meet up with Alabama again. Alabama seemed physically far superior in the previous matchup and I would expect that to show up again.
The others:
Oklahoma - They need Texas to lose twice just to get into the Big 12 Championship game. That wont happen, meaning the Sooners could be left at 11-1 and hoping they arent the 2008 version of the 2007 Georgia Bulldogs. It is hard to make a case as one of the top 2 teams in the country, when you arent even the best team in your 6 team division.
Texas Tech - Tough remaining schedule with games against Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. Not to mention a matchup with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game should they run the table. Dont see it happening.
Projected BCS Selections:
BCS Championship Game
Texas vs Penn St.
Rose Bowl
USC vs Ohio St*
(Rose Bowl gets second shot to replace team because Penn St. is in BCS Championship Game. Ohio State would be the choice most likely due to the Rose Bowl strictly wanting any Pac-10 or Big 10 teams eligible for at-large bids)
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma* vs Alabama*
(Oklahoma logical choice to replace Texas. Fiesta gets first selection of at-large bids for Bowls not affected by BCS Championship Game and selects SEC Runner-up. Utah might be a thought, but tough to pass up Alabama's tradition).
Sugar Bowl
Florida vs West Virginia
(It would be nice to see Bowden play WVU but I dont see the Sugar passing up West Virginia for Utah)
Orange Bowl
Florida State vs Utah
*at-large bids
1. Texas - They will beat Texas Tech this weekend in Lubbock and cruise to the Big 12 Championship game. They will beat Missouri in that game to finish the season undefeated and in the BCS Championship game.
2. Penn State - They will win their last three games and play Texas for cyrstal football in Miami. They might face a challenge against Michigan State, but I see them prevailing.
3. Florida - The "Cocktail Party" in Jacksonville will determine the SEC champion. Florida will beat Georgia (wonder how Florida will respond to last year's field storming by the Dogs) and play Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Florida will win, but be left out in the end due to the 2 undefeated teams above and end up in the Sugar Bowl.
4. USC - USC will run the table and most likely end up in the Rose Bowl again vs Ohio State for a rematch no one wants to see. USC also plays in Columbus early next year so it will be a game the players probably dont want either. Oregon State controls their own destiny in the Pac-10 but has a brutal stretch to navigate. I would like to see Oregon State run the table and thus set up a possible SEC-USC game.
5. Alabama - They should be able to pound LSU and win that game (might not matter as they are 2 games ahead in the SEC West), but it will be tough as Nick Saban makes his return to Baton Rouge. Alabama is got to be rooting hard for Georgia this weekend to set up a rematch in the SEC Championship game. Should they lose twice, it will be interesting to see if they can get an at-large bid over Georgia.
6. Georgia - Should they beat Florida, they will have revenge on their minds should they meet up with Alabama again. Alabama seemed physically far superior in the previous matchup and I would expect that to show up again.
The others:
Oklahoma - They need Texas to lose twice just to get into the Big 12 Championship game. That wont happen, meaning the Sooners could be left at 11-1 and hoping they arent the 2008 version of the 2007 Georgia Bulldogs. It is hard to make a case as one of the top 2 teams in the country, when you arent even the best team in your 6 team division.
Texas Tech - Tough remaining schedule with games against Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. Not to mention a matchup with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game should they run the table. Dont see it happening.
Projected BCS Selections:
BCS Championship Game
Texas vs Penn St.
Rose Bowl
USC vs Ohio St*
(Rose Bowl gets second shot to replace team because Penn St. is in BCS Championship Game. Ohio State would be the choice most likely due to the Rose Bowl strictly wanting any Pac-10 or Big 10 teams eligible for at-large bids)
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma* vs Alabama*
(Oklahoma logical choice to replace Texas. Fiesta gets first selection of at-large bids for Bowls not affected by BCS Championship Game and selects SEC Runner-up. Utah might be a thought, but tough to pass up Alabama's tradition).
Sugar Bowl
Florida vs West Virginia
(It would be nice to see Bowden play WVU but I dont see the Sugar passing up West Virginia for Utah)
Orange Bowl
Florida State vs Utah
*at-large bids
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